Carlos Gutierrez

LF Greenville Drive

Age 22 L/R 5'9" / 180 lbs A+ HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1424ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	90	.359/.444/.462	0	12	77	—	.256/.322/.317
2025	20	ASF	293	.351/.445/.452	2	26	116	—	.314/.383/.391
2026	21	A+BOS	415	.271/.381/.431	9	31	80	—	.228/.301/.359
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBBOS	1	.238/.309/.349	0	0	83	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBOS	126	.242/.314/.362	2	4	88	-0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBBOS	189	.244/.317/.371	4	5	91	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed92

BB%78

wRC+75

K%74

Chase%74

Whiff%72

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 6.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsJakob Marsee (age 22) · Nicky Lopez (age 22) · Sal Frelick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .309 / .349

PA1

HR0

K%24

BB%9

BABIP306

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	90	78	28	4	2	0	11	6	1	12	0	359	444	462	906	103	389	7	12	408	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	San Jose Giants	—	293	248	87	11	4	2	37	40	5	26	3	351	445	452	896	101	413	14	13	401	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	415	350	95	23	3	9	59	80	3	31	4	271	381	431	812	160	328	19	14	363	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	90	82	21	3	1	0	7	7	1	12	0	256	322	317	639	61	273	8	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	293	261	82	9	4	1	24	57	5	26	3	314	383	391	774	77	392	19	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	415	373	85	19	3	8	36	105	3	31	4	228	301	359	660	131	288	25	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	90	82	21	3	1	0	7	7	1	12	0	256	322	317	639	61	280	8	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	90	78	28	4	2	0	11	6	1	12	0	359	444	462	906	103	389	7	12	408	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	293	261	82	9	4	1	24	57	5	26	3	314	383	391	774	77	399	19	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	293	248	87	11	4	2	37	40	5	26	3	351	445	452	896	101	413	14	13	401	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	415	373	85	19	3	8	36	105	3	31	4	228	301	359	660	131	295	25	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	—	415	350	95	23	3	9	59	80	3	31	4	271	381	431	812	160	328	19	14	363	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	90	82	21	3	1	0	7	7	1	12	0	256	322	317	639	61	273	8	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	293	262	82	9	4	1	24	57	5	26	3	313	383	389	772	76	392	19	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	415	373	85	19	3	8	36	105	3	31	4	228	301	359	660	131	288	25	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	293	262	82	9	4	1	24	57	5	26	3	313	383	389	772	76	392	19	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	415	373	85	19	3	8	36	105	3	31	4	228	301	359	660	131	288	25	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	525	471	109	20	4	8	44	127	5	19	3	231	303	340	643	109	296	24	8	291	83	-11	+3	-1	-6	+11	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	238	309	349	658	111	306	0	0	297	83	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	35%	364	327	77	14	3	6	31	86	3	11	2	235	308	353	661	118	297	24	9	298	88	-5	+1	+0	-4	+8	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	46%	408	366	87	16	3	8	35	95	4	12	2	238	311	362	673	124	297	23	9	302	91	-5	+2	+1	-4	+9	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	455	409	97	18	3	9	39	106	4	12	2	239	312	366	678	127	297	23	9	304	92	-4	+2	+1	-5	+10	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	476	428	102	19	3	10	41	110	4	11	2	239	313	368	680	129	297	23	9	305	93	-4	+1	+1	-5	+10	0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	481	432	103	19	3	10	42	112	4	11	1	238	312	367	679	129	296	23	9	305	92	-4	+2	+1	-5	+10	0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	479	430	102	19	3	10	42	113	4	9	1	236	310	363	673	126	295	24	9	302	91	-5	+1	-0	-5	+10	0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	468	421	98	18	3	9	40	111	4	8	1	234	307	356	663	122	294	24	9	298	88	-7	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	458	412	96	17	3	9	39	110	4	7	1	231	304	348	652	117	292	24	9	294	85	-8	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	35%	126	113	27	5	1	2	11	30	1	4	1	242	314	362	676	121	306	24	9	304	88	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	46%	189	169	41	8	1	4	16	44	2	5	1	244	317	371	688	126	307	23	8	308	91	-2	+1	+0	-2	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	235	211	52	10	2	5	20	55	2	6	1	245	318	375	693	130	307	23	9	311	92	-2	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	258	232	57	11	2	5	22	60	2	6	1	246	319	377	695	131	306	23	9	311	93	-2	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	261	234	57	11	2	5	23	61	2	6	1	245	318	376	694	131	306	23	9	311	92	-2	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	260	233	57	11	2	5	23	61	2	5	1	243	316	371	687	128	305	23	9	308	91	-3	+1	-0	-3	+6	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	249	223	54	11	1	5	22	59	2	4	1	241	313	365	678	125	303	24	9	305	88	-4	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	240	215	50	10	1	4	21	58	2	4	1	237	309	357	667	120	302	24	9	300	85	-4	+0	-1	-3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1818	1630	395	77	12	35	158	428	15	40	8	242	315	369	684	126	306	24	9	308	90	-21	+5	+0	-19	+39	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	142	28	4	13	56	153	5	14	3	244	315	372	687	129	307	24	9	308	90	-8	+2	+0	-7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4597	4129	994	179	34	83	394	1063	42	158	20	241	313	361	674	120	304	23	9	301	90	-47	+13	+0	-41	+82	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	141	25	5	12	56	150	6	22	3	241	315	363	678	122	304	23	9	301	90	-8	+2	+0	-7	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 415 PAwOBA .355 → .286 (−69)K% 19.3% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.28%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	25.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.22%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	8.63%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.56%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.031	×1.012	20.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.031	×1.012	6.93%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.031	×1.012	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.97%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .355 → .286; ISO .160 → .138; BABIP .328 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 293 PAwOBA .391 → .340 (−50)K% 13.7% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.65%	÷0.962	×1.360	—	—	19.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.29%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.015	8.16%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.35%
Singles /BIP	33.65%	÷1.007	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	32.76%
Doubles /BIP	5.29%	÷1.138	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	4.11%
Triples /BIP	1.92%	÷0.902	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	2.07%
Home runs /BIP	0.96%	÷1.358	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.57%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .391 → .340; ISO .101 → .084; BABIP .413 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Giants Black · 90 PAwOBA .394 → .282 (−113)K% 6.7% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.67%	÷1.020	×1.220	—	—	7.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.002	×0.700	—	×0.995	7.72%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.77%
Singles /BIP	30.56%	÷0.970	×0.680	×1.050	×0.995	22.37%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.028	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	3.39%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.118	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 94, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .394 → .282; ISO .103 → .062; BABIP .389 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.7	1,818	36	40	237	307	363	-11	+5	2.4	2.3
/162	664	13	15	-4.0	+1.8	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	229/301/337	108	296	3	8	24%	8%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	227/302/334	107	261	9	17	17%	8%	82	+0.0	255/308/340	85	288	5	13	13%	7%	84	+0.2	264/325/346	82	304	4	14	13%	8%	92	+0.6
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	53→63	40→45	56→55	49	250/311/350	101	314	7	17	22%	8%	88	+0.5	269/331/377	108	313	8	19	15%	8%	102	+1.5	271/336/373	101	313	6	20	15%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Alejandro Osuna 2024 · A	21	47→56	43→45	50→55	46	226/298/334	107	305	11	21	28%	8%	81	-0.1	237/309/354	117	303	11	18	24%	8%	89	+0.5	244/321/351	107	303	9	19	21%	8%	91	+0.5
●Dylan Beavers 2024 · AA	22	50→52	45→50	53→55	47	237/304/372	135	322	10	19	28%	8%	91	+0.7	228/307/363	135	303	14	20	27%	10%	91	+0.7	225/312/362	137	293	15	21	27%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Daryl Jones 2009 · AA	22	49→57	43→45	53→50	44	236/303/346	110	312	10	16	26%	7%	85	+0.2	233/300/335	102	306	8	12	25%	7%	81	-0.1	225/294/320	95	295	7	10	25%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Victor Scott II 2023 · A	22	44→54	43→40	58→65	50	212/292/336	124	282	9	19	27%	10%	79	-0.2	228/288/323	95	287	7	44	22%	6%	74	-0.5	222/287/310	87	280	7	49	22%	7%	70	-0.8
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	51→55	42→45	54→60	44	241/303/349	108	331	8	22	28%	7%	85	+0.2	248/308/354	106	326	7	29	24%	8%	88	+0.5	253/316/355	102	332	7	33	24%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	44→52	39→45	58→55	46	208/280/301	93	279	6	17	26%	8%	66	-1.1	228/306/313	85	303	5	16	24%	9%	78	-0.3	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	46	235/297/328	93	300	6	20	23%	7%	78	-0.3	268/329/345	77	338	3	25	20%	8%	93	+0.8	279/339/344	65	344	2	32	18%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Victor Labrada 2022 · A	22	48→55	41→45	52→60	41	220/287/323	104	340	7	20	35%	8%	74	-0.6	211/277/311	100	317	8	25	33%	7%	68	-1.0	236/319/356	120	306	10	36	24%	9%	91	+0.5
●Brett Bateman 2024 · A	22	51→61	37→30	54→55	55	238/324/309	70	307	4	18	22%	11%	84	+0.2	252/333/313	61	337	3	21	23%	11%	88	+0.5	267/352/328	61	355	3	23	23%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Kyle Isbel 2019 · A	22	48→52	43→50	53→55	41	231/279/347	116	311	10	19	28%	6%	76	-0.4	220/271/346	126	290	13	17	28%	6%	73	-0.6	232/292/371	139	290	13	19	24%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Tre' Morgan 2024 · A	22	51→57	41→45	53→50	53	245/312/345	100	287	7	14	17%	9%	88	+0.4	256/323/381	125	309	11	12	20%	8%	101	+1.4	251/322/379	128	310	13	11	22%	8%	97	+0.7
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	48	225/305/313	88	293	6	17	24%	8%	79	-0.2	206/264/295	89	290	5	12	29%	6%	58	-1.7	195/251/286	91	274	5	13	29%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Michael Gigliotti 2018 · A	22	52	40	51→55	50	248/316/349	101	308	7	17	21%	8%	91	+0.6	231/297/318	87	305	5	20	24%	7%	76	-0.4	196/303/305	109	266	10	24	27%	11%	76	-0.2
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	51→55	42→50	53→50	49	244/302/354	110	296	8	12	20%	8%	86	+0.3	246/298/352	106	299	8	9	19%	7%	84	+0.1	250/311/385	135	298	13	9	20%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2012 · A	22	48→56	39→45	52→55	44	225/285/312	87	301	6	16	26%	7%	70	-0.8	247/294/342	95	330	6	18	26%	5%	80	-0.2	259/299/367	108	345	9	26	26%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Kevin Kramer 2016 · A	22	46→56	40→50	54→50	44	220/276/315	95	281	6	12	24%	6%	68	-1.0	247/303/358	111	313	8	8	22%	6%	88	+0.4	257/312/379	122	332	9	8	24%	6%	94	+0.6

Carlos Gutierrez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps