Alfonsin Rosario

OF Akron RubberDucks
Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 222 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420ACHC456.230/.347/.423162057—.168/.265/.306
202521AA/A+/INTL2 orgs543.240/.338/.433211670—.203/.282/.366
202622AAA/AACLE447.230/.315/.461181767—.185/.252/.357
2027PROJMLE23MLBCLE4.183/.253/.3390066-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB24MLBCLE132.189/.259/.3514371-0.2
2029PROJ45% MLB25MLBCLE205.193/.264/.3587474-0.2
Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed87
Max EV62
BB%35
Chase%19
Z-Con%7
K%6
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%
CompsAaron Palensky (age 24) · Carlos Rincon (age 23) · DJ Gladney (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .253 / .339
PA4
HR0
K%50
BB%7
BABIP283
ISO147
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202319 ROKACL Cubs — 3328 7100 481 40 250364286649 36350 2412 310 31 — — — — — —
202420 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456383 8818416 5614713 205 230347423770 193321 3212 344 57 — — — — — —
202521 AAAkron RubberDucks — 145128 27615 15482 21 211303391694 180293 3310 312 53 — — — — — —
202521 A+Lake County Captains — 354306 8216216 37899 121 268364490854 222325 2510 376 84 — — — — — —
202521 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 4437 4000 6151 21 108250108358 182 3414 194 18 — — — — — —
202622 AAAColumbus Clippers — 164147 24912 15652 51 163250279529 116275 409 245 11 — — — — — —
202622 AAAkron RubberDucks — 283248 6720316 26906 120 270354569922 298352 329 395 99 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202319 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 3329 6100 3121 40 207303241544 34284 369 214 31 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456399 6713312 4020313 205 168265306571 138279 459 253 57 — — — — — —
202521 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 145132 23514 11622 21 174248318566 144283 438 247 53 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLELake County Captains — 354316 6811213 271119 121 215295386682 171277 318 292 84 — — — — — —
202622 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 164151 19711 11782 51 126195205400 79248 487 185 11 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 283256 5616312 181106 120 219286445731 227315 396 315 99 — — — — — —
202319 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 3329 6100 3121 40 207303241544 34353 369 214 31 — — — — — —
202319 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 3328 7100 481 40 250364286649 36350 2412 310 31 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456399 6713312 4020313 205 168265306571 138293 459 253 57 — — — — — —
202420 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456383 8818416 5614713 205 230347423770 193321 3212 344 57 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 543488 9817318 4118812 163 201279359638 158282 358 279 75 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAW3 teams — 543471 11322321 5815212 163 240338433771 193307 2811 344 75 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE2 teams — 447407 7723414 291888 171 189257369625 179303 426 267 67 — — — — — —
202622 AA RAW2 teams — 447395 9129418 411558 171 230315461776 230324 359 340 67 — — — — — —
202319 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 3329 6100 3121 40 207303241544 34284 369 214 31 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456400 6713312 4020313 205 168265305570 137279 459 253 57 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 543485 9817318 4118812 163 202279361640 159279 358 279 75 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE2 teams — 447407 7723414 291888 171 189257369625 179290 426 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 456400 6713312 4020313 205 168265305570 137279 459 253 57 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 543485 9817318 4118812 163 202279361640 159279 358 279 75 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE2 teams — 447407 7723414 291888 171 189257369625 179290 426 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLECLE 2% 557505 9222317 382269 132 183253341594 158283 417 265 66 -23 +2 -1 -3 +12 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXCLE 2% 44 0000 020 00 183253339592 156283 500 265 66 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLECLE 31% 425385 7417314 301677 101 189260353612 164285 397 273 71 -15 +2 +0 -3 +9 -0.7
202925 MLB MLECLE 45% 459416 8018315 331767 101 193264360624 167286 387 278 74 -14 +2 +1 -3 +10 -0.5
203026 MLB MLECLE 51% 477432 8419316 351807 101 196267364631 168286 387 281 76 -14 +2 +1 -3 +10 -0.4
202824 MLB CTXCLE 31% 132120 22514 9522 30 189259351611 162285 397 272 71 -5 +1 +0 -1 +3 -0.2
202925 MLB CTXCLE 45% 205185 36817 15793 41 193264358622 166286 397 277 74 -6 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.2
203026 MLB CTXCLE 51% 243219 431018 18914 51 196267362629 166286 377 280 76 -7 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 580524 10123319 422229 122 193264357621 164287 387 277 70 -18 +2 +1 -3 +13 -0.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 11326321 4724910 132 193264354618 162287 387 277 70 -20 +2 +1 -4 +14 -0.7
Career— MLE — 30502747 5201162095 225119958 9213 189265350615 161289 397 271 70 -51 +5 +1 -9 +34 -2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 11125420 4825612 203 190265349613 159292 397 271 70 -21 +2 +0 -4 +14 -0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 283 PAwOBA .387 → .315 (−72)K% 31.8% → 38.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.80%÷1.000×1.220——38.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.83%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0426.44%
HBP% /PA2.12%—×0.850—×1.0421.88%
Singles /BIP17.72%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.04217.02%
Doubles /BIP12.66%÷1.000×0.860×0.950×1.04210.78%
Triples /BIP1.90%÷1.000×0.950×0.950×1.0421.79%
Home runs /BIP10.13%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0428.23%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .387 → .315; ISO .298 → .236; BABIP .352 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 164 PAwOBA .239 → .185 (−54)K% 39.6% → 47.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.63%÷1.000×1.200——47.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.15%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0506.63%
HBP% /PA1.22%—×0.940—×1.0501.20%
Singles /BIP14.63%÷1.000×0.930×0.969×1.05013.84%
Doubles /BIP10.98%÷1.000×0.830×0.969×1.0509.27%
Triples /BIP1.22%÷1.000×0.970×0.969×1.0501.20%
Home runs /BIP2.44%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0501.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .239 → .185; ISO .116 → .085; BABIP .275 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 354 PAwOBA .367 → .292 (−75)K% 25.1% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.14%÷1.020×1.270——31.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.17%÷0.991×0.710—×1.0277.48%
HBP% /PA2.54%—×0.790—×1.0272.06%
Singles /BIP22.12%÷1.031×0.920×0.994×1.02720.14%
Doubles /BIP7.37%÷1.138×0.810×0.994×1.0275.35%
Triples /BIP0.92%÷0.952×0.850×0.994×1.0270.84%
Home runs /BIP7.37%÷1.011×0.800—×1.0275.99%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .367 → .292; ISO .222 → .171; BABIP .325 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 145 PAwOBA .301 → .247 (−54)K% 33.1% → 42.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.10%÷0.948×1.220——42.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.66%÷0.953×0.700—×1.0507.45%
HBP% /PA1.38%—×0.850—×1.0501.23%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.004×0.970×0.981×1.05018.65%
Doubles /BIP7.50%÷0.986×0.860×0.981×1.0506.74%
Triples /BIP1.25%÷0.935×0.950×0.981×1.0501.31%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷0.926×0.780—×1.0505.53%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 90, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .301 → .247; ISO .180 → .143; BABIP .293 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 456 PAwOBA .338 → .253 (−85)K% 32.2% → 44.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.24%÷0.985×1.360——44.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.28%÷1.007×0.690—×1.0308.67%
HBP% /PA2.85%—×0.780—×1.0302.29%
Singles /BIP21.19%÷0.997×0.920×0.952×1.03019.16%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷0.986×0.830×0.952×1.0306.30%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷1.150×0.910×0.952×1.0301.32%
Home runs /BIP6.78%÷0.908×0.800—×1.0306.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .338 → .253; ISO .193 → .145; BABIP .321 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 33 PAwOBA .303 → .214 (−89)K% 24.2% → 34.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.24%÷1.000×1.440——34.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.12%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0087.57%
HBP% /PA3.03%—×0.720—×1.0082.20%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.000×0.820—×1.00824.78%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0083.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .303 → .214; ISO .036 → .024; BABIP .350 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .