Joshua Mears — OGILVIE

Joshua MearsRF San Antonio Missions

Age 25 R/R 6'3" / 230 lbs AA HR +13%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .249 / .329

PA161

HR5

K%42

BB%7

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

45→45

SPD

50→50

EYE

37↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.5peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-10M		$-31M	-$21M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	195	175	28	2	2	5	14	85	4	9	1	.160	.238	.280	.518	.120	.264	44	7	.227	32	-15	+1	+0	-2	+6	-1.0
2021	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	291	255	38	5	2	14	23	167	12	10	5	.149	.252	.349	.601	.200	.320	57	8	.263	59	-13	+0	+0	-3	+8	-0.8
2022	21	A+	3 teams	367	334	47	11	1	15	23	213	8	4	1	.141	.214	.314	.528	.174	.296	58	6	.227	32	-28	+0	+0	-4	+10	-2.2
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	227	198	23	6	0	7	21	121	7	13	5	.116	.226	.253	.478	.136	.225	53	9	.211	20	-21	+1	+0	-2	+6	-1.6
2024	23	A+	2 teams	280	265	39	5	1	12	10	135	3	9	4	.147	.187	.309	.496	.162	.225	48	4	.211	20	-25	+0	+0	-3	+8	-2.1
2025	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	164	148	21	2	1	5	8	66	6	5	4	.142	.216	.270	.486	.128	.203	40	5	.214	22	-14	-1	+0	-2	+5	-1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	SD	161	146	27	5	1	5	11	68	3	3	1	.185	.256	.336	.592	.151	.282	42	7	.262	58	-8	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	SD	257	233	44	8	1	9	18	103	4	5	2	.189	.259	.348	.606	.159	.284	40	7	.270	64	-10	+0	+0	-3	+7	-0.6
2028	27	MLB 26%	SD	311	280	53	10	1	10	23	121	5	6	2	.189	.263	.339	.602	.150	.285	39	7	.274	68	-11	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.6
2029	28	MLB 38%	SD	345	310	59	11	1	11	26	132	6	6	3	.190	.266	.339	.605	.148	.285	38	8	.275	69	-12	+0	-1	-4	+10	-0.7
2030	29	MLB 52%	SD	358	322	62	11	1	12	27	136	6	6	2	.193	.268	.345	.612	.152	.284	38	8	.274	68	-13	+0	-1	-4	+10	-0.8
2031	30	MLB 63%	SD	367	330	63	11	1	12	28	141	6	6	2	.191	.266	.339	.606	.148	.283	38	8	.271	66	-14	+0	-2	-4	+10	-1.0
2032	31	MLB 80%	SD	358	322	60	11	1	11	27	139	6	4	2	.186	.262	.329	.591	.143	.281	39	8	.267	63	-15	+0	-3	-4	+10	-1.2
2033	32	MLB	SD	343	309	56	10	1	10	26	135	5	3	1	.181	.256	.317	.573	.136	.279	39	8	.263	59	-16	+0	-4	-4	+10	-1.3
2034	33	MLB	SD	316	284	51	9	1	9	24	126	5	2	1	.180	.256	.313	.569	.134	.277	40	8	.257	55	-16	+0	-4	-3	+9	-1.5
2035	34	MLB	SD	274	248	44	8	1	8	20	112	4	2	1	.177	.250	.315	.565	.137	.275	41	7	.251	50	-15	+0	-5	-3	+8	-1.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4614	4159	715	125	17	155	329	2000	90	93	37	.172	.248	.322	.570	.150	.276	43	7	.254	52	-248	+4	-20	-49	+131	-18.6
/ 162G	—			650	586	101	18	2	22	46	282	13	13	5	.172	.248	.323	.571	.150	.276	43	7	.254	52	-35	+1	-3	-7	+18	-2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	195	166	42	4	3	7	23	59	4	9	1	.253	.358	.440	.797	.187	.343	30	12	.353	128	+6	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2021	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	291	242	59	10	4	17	36	114	12	10	5	.244	.369	.529	.898	.285	.375	39	12	.392	158	+19	+0	—	—	+8	2.8
2022	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	94	83	14	2	0	5	10	45	1	1	0	.169	.266	.373	.639	.205	.273	48	11	.287	78	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2022	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	207	184	41	11	0	14	16	90	6	1	1	.223	.306	.511	.817	.288	.333	43	8	.354	129	+7	-0	—	—	+6	1.3
2022	21	ROK	ACL Padres	66	56	15	6	1	3	8	26	1	2	0	.268	.369	.571	.941	.304	.429	39	12	.400	164	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	227	190	30	9	0	9	29	96	7	13	5	.158	.292	.347	.639	.189	.244	42	13	.293	82	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.3
2024	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	74	69	12	3	0	6	4	35	1	1	1	.174	.230	.478	.708	.304	.214	47	5	.305	92	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	206	191	41	5	1	10	11	69	2	8	3	.215	.265	.408	.673	.194	.272	33	5	.294	83	-4	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2025	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	164	144	24	3	1	5	12	55	6	5	4	.167	.259	.306	.565	.139	.221	34	7	.257	55	-8	-1	—	—	+5	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joshua Mears (OGILVIE)	25	20	45	50	35	.179/.249/.329	.150	.282	5	3	42%	7%	58	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kalian Sams 2012 · A	25	31→28	53→55	52→55	31	.175/.224/.342	.166	.276	22	13	44%	5%	50	-1.7	.198/.251/.367	.169	.289	23	17	38%	6%	68	-0.5	.189/.248/.363	.175	.259	25	20	37%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Matt Gorski 2023 · AA	25	38→34	52→60	55	36	.201/.255/.362	.161	.296	21	19	39%	6%	68	-0.5	.202/.249/.372	.170	.277	22	19	35%	6%	68	-0.5	.192/.237/.369	.177	.251	24	19	34%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2023 · AA	24	38→35	50	48→45	35	.197/.261/.345	.148	.303	19	7	40%	6%	66	-0.6	.202/.267/.334	.132	.321	16	6	39%	7%	66	-0.6	.186/.258/.306	.120	.294	16	1	40%	8%	52	-1.0
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→29	51→55	42→40	38	.174/.254/.327	.153	.277	20	5	43%	8%	59	-1.1	.190/.273/.382	.192	.303	27	5	44%	9%	82	+0.5	.166/.260/.397	.231	.247	35	2	47%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Yusuf Carter 2009 · A	24	36→34	48→50	50	34	.193/.233/.333	.140	.277	17	12	37%	5%	50	-1.7	.220/.261/.362	.142	.311	17	9	34%	5%	69	-0.4	.231/.271/.374	.143	.318	19	5	33%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Jake Adams 2021 · AA	25	38→36	50	44→45	37	.200/.251/.345	.144	.280	19	7	35%	6%	62	-0.9	.191/.247/.303	.112	.363	13	8	48%	5%	49	-1.8	.084/.140/.154	.070	.210	11	4	63%	3%	-34	-1.3
✕Tyler Hardman 2023 · AA	24	38→33	51→55	49→50	34	.198/.247/.347	.149	.306	20	11	41%	6%	60	-1.0	.186/.245/.351	.165	.298	22	12	43%	7%	61	-1.0	.165/.227/.328	.163	.262	22	13	45%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Logan Hill 2018 · AA	25	40	49→50	45	39	.208/.269/.354	.146	.290	17	7	34%	6%	72	-0.2	.206/.268/.356	.150	.296	19	4	35%	7%	72	-0.2	.195/.258/.345	.150	.278	19	1	36%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Nellie Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	25	36→40	49→50	46→30	37	.184/.252/.328	.145	.309	18	2	44%	8%	58	-1.2	.190/.249/.334	.144	.335	18	4	46%	7%	58	-1.2	.154/.214/.297	.144	.268	20	0	49%	7%	33	-1.5
✕Micker Adolfo 2022 · AAA	25	40→37	53→55	47→45	33	.202/.256/.377	.175	.323	22	6	43%	6%	72	-0.2	.199/.243/.338	.139	.325	17	10	42%	5%	56	-1.3	.173/.215/.279	.107	.290	13	11	44%	5%	24	-2.1
✕Spencer Henson 2023 · A	25	37	48→50	47→40	39	.192/.262/.331	.139	.288	17	6	38%	7%	63	-0.8	.196/.252/.336	.140	.279	17	5	35%	5%	60	-1.0	.185/.237/.336	.151	.246	21	1	34%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Dillan Shrum 2023 · A	25	41→31	49→50	48→30	38	.195/.283/.341	.146	.327	17	4	42%	8%	76	+0.0	.191/.286/.344	.153	.308	18	3	41%	8%	78	+0.2	.172/.272/.329	.156	.274	20	1	41%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	46→50	54→55	43	.195/.275/.328	.133	.280	14	16	34%	8%	68	-0.5	.196/.270/.305	.109	.263	10	17	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.156/.241/.247	.091	.208	8	20	27%	8%	30	-1.4
✕Garrett Whitley 2022 · AAA	25	39→38	48→50	49→55	39	.188/.270/.337	.149	.320	15	14	43%	9%	68	-0.5	.196/.278/.332	.136	.320	15	18	40%	9%	70	-0.3	.175/.274/.307	.132	.292	15	26	41%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Casey Golden 2021 · A	26	37→33	51→55	48→50	32	.184/.257/.335	.151	.325	20	11	47%	6%	63	-0.9	.205/.272/.349	.144	.410	16	7	50%	7%	72	-0.2	.180/.247/.347	.167	.394	21	2	55%	7%	59	-0.3
✕Will Wilson 2023 · AAA	25	39	50	45	39	.199/.264/.346	.147	.300	19	7	39%	7%	68	-0.5	.201/.259/.319	.118	.271	14	6	30%	7%	58	-1.2	.194/.253/.297	.103	.254	12	6	28%	6%	46	-1.5
✕Adam Brett Walker 2017 · AAA	25	36→44	53→55	47→45	33	.192/.241/.359	.166	.306	22	8	44%	6%	61	-1.0	.185/.235/.344	.159	.304	20	7	44%	6%	55	-1.4	.148/.200/.298	.151	.231	20	4	45%	6%	27	-1.3
✕Carlos Rincon 2022 · AA	24	39	53→55	49→45	38	.208/.263/.376	.168	.291	22	6	36%	6%	76	+0.0	.215/.263/.366	.151	.312	18	7	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.174/.211/.299	.126	.266	14	0	40%	4%	28	-0.8
✕Melky Mesa 2012 · AA	25	40→44	48→55	51→55	36	.201/.261/.345	.143	.304	15	17	38%	6%	66	-0.6	.218/.265/.371	.153	.310	18	17	35%	5%	74	-0.1	.215/.255/.374	.159	.296	21	17	34%	4%	66	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)