Jesus Valdez
2B Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AAARI | 252 | .260/.328/.405 | 7 | 2 | 55 | — | .209/.260/.303 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAARI | 216 | .253/.319/.392 | 6 | 0 | 54 | — | .206/.258/.302 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AAARI | 131 | .180/.305/.252 | 2 | 2 | 26 | — | .147/.252/.217 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBARI | 10 | .205/.266/.305 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBARI | 41 | .205/.265/.303 | 1 | 0 | 57 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | DSL Dodgers Guerrero | — | 242 | 204 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 46 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 230 | 346 | 412 | 758 | 181 | 266 | 19 | 12 | 339 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 42 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 190 | 244 | 434 | 73 | 222 | 31 | 2 | 195 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 49 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 327 | 545 | 872 | 295 | 259 | 27 | 8 | 379 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 20 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 400 | 400 | 600 | 1.000 | 200 | 467 | 20 | 0 | 440 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 292 | 279 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 76 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 249 | 412 | 661 | 190 | 262 | 26 | 2 | 286 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 30 | 29 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 414 | 433 | 621 | 1.054 | 207 | 476 | 20 | 3 | 464 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 222 | 198 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 314 | 374 | 687 | 136 | 323 | 29 | 10 | 307 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 139 | 127 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 292 | 346 | 638 | 110 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 77 | 67 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 368 | 478 | 846 | 194 | 340 | 23 | 6 | 372 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 286 | 619 | 400 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 116 | 97 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 302 | 247 | 549 | 82 | 206 | 23 | 10 | 268 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers Guerrero | — | 242 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 131 | 229 | 221 | 450 | 89 | 157 | 23 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 42 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 167 | 220 | 386 | 73 | 202 | 38 | 2 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 49 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 245 | 333 | 578 | 156 | 225 | 35 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 20 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 300 | 300 | 350 | 650 | 50 | 387 | 25 | 0 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 292 | 281 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 104 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 174 | 197 | 313 | 510 | 139 | 236 | 36 | 2 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 30 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 310 | 333 | 414 | 747 | 103 | 399 | 23 | 3 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 222 | 205 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 250 | 288 | 538 | 93 | 287 | 35 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 139 | 130 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 241 | 277 | 518 | 77 | 268 | 30 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 77 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 217 | 289 | 348 | 637 | 130 | 279 | 30 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 214 | 481 | 365 | 33 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 116 | 101 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 250 | 218 | 468 | 79 | 172 | 28 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers Guerrero | — | 242 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 131 | 229 | 221 | 450 | 89 | 160 | 23 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Dodgers Guerrero | — | 242 | 204 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 46 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 230 | 346 | 412 | 758 | 181 | 266 | 19 | 12 | 339 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 198 | 276 | 474 | 115 | 216 | 36 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 91 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 264 | 400 | 664 | 188 | 241 | 29 | 5 | 294 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 312 | 301 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 109 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 186 | 207 | 329 | 536 | 143 | 253 | 35 | 2 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 312 | 299 | 70 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 80 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 234 | 259 | 425 | 684 | 191 | 276 | 26 | 2 | 296 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 235 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 84 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 209 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 94 | 304 | 33 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 252 | 227 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 260 | 328 | 405 | 733 | 145 | 344 | 28 | 9 | 326 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 199 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 206 | 258 | 302 | 560 | 95 | 278 | 30 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 216 | 194 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 253 | 319 | 392 | 711 | 139 | 314 | 25 | 7 | 316 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 115 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157 | 260 | 226 | 486 | 70 | 213 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 131 | 111 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 305 | 252 | 558 | 72 | 231 | 24 | 10 | 270 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers Guerrero | — | 242 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 131 | 229 | 221 | 450 | 89 | 157 | 23 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 198 | 276 | 474 | 115 | 214 | 36 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 312 | 301 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 109 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 186 | 207 | 329 | 536 | 143 | 246 | 35 | 2 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 235 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 84 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 209 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 94 | 300 | 33 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 200 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 205 | 258 | 300 | 558 | 95 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 260 | 228 | 488 | 70 | 194 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 235 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 84 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 209 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 94 | 300 | 33 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 200 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 205 | 258 | 300 | 558 | 95 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 260 | 228 | 488 | 70 | 194 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 10% | 200 | 183 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 261 | 297 | 558 | 96 | 261 | 27 | 6 | 253 | 58 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 266 | 305 | 571 | 100 | 269 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 58 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 27% | 151 | 139 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 260 | 294 | 555 | 95 | 261 | 27 | 6 | 252 | 57 | -8 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 27% | 41 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 265 | 303 | 568 | 98 | 269 | 27 | 5 | 257 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 268 | 342 | 610 | 132 | 269 | 27 | 5 | 257 | 42 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 127 | 32 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 174 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 344 | 613 | 133 | 269 | 27 | 5 | 257 | 42 | -33 | +0 | -9 | +2 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1500 | 1385 | 252 | 42 | 6 | 29 | 76 | 454 | 27 | 31 | 17 | 182 | 239 | 284 | 522 | 102 | 244 | 30 | 5 | 231 | 42 | -13 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 197 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 183 | 240 | 288 | 529 | 105 | 246 | 30 | 5 | 231 | 42 | -33 | -1 | -5 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 116 PAwOBA .262 → .203 (−59)K% 23.3% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.03% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 5.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 14.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 2.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .262 → .203; ISO .082 → .063; BABIP .206 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAReno Aces · 15 PAwOBA .281 → .235 (−45)K% 26.7% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 36.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .281 → .235; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .400 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 139 PAwOBA .281 → .233 (−48)K% 25.9% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.90% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.18% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .281 → .233; ISO .110 → .084; BABIP .300 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 77 PAwOBA .367 → .273 (−94)K% 23.4% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.38% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.49% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.19% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 4.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 21.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.119 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.333 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .367 → .273; ISO .194 → .119; BABIP .340 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 222 PAwOBA .301 → .237 (−64)K% 28.8% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.83% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.13% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .301 → .237; ISO .136 → .098; BABIP .323 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAReno Aces · 30 PAwOBA .450 → .336 (−113)K% 20.0% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.48% | ÷1.076 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 37.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.124 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.43% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .450 → .336; ISO .207 → .123; BABIP .476 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 292 PAwOBA .280 → .220 (−60)K% 26.0% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.03% | ÷0.987 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.40% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 1.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | ×0.968 | 15.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.968 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.029 | ×0.968 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.42% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 4.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .280 → .220; ISO .190 → .146; BABIP .262 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 20 PAwOBA .426 → .310 (−117)K% 20.0% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 32.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .426 → .310; ISO .200 → .107; BABIP .467 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).