Tyler Hardman
3B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/ANYY | 391 | .188/.272/.310 | 10 | 13 | 18 | — | .145/.210/.240 |
| 2025 | 26 | AANYY | 453 | .228/.294/.458 | 20 | 12 | 50 | — | .177/.228/.340 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 533 | .243/.324/.462 | 28 | 11 | 66 | — | .194/.256/.342 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBNYY | 16 | .199/.257/.357 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBNYY | 58 | .199/.257/.353 | 2 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 312 | 406 | 718 | 168 | 370 | 39 | 8 | 316 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 133 | 100 | 38 | 0 | 57 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 397 | 104 | 16 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 136 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 262 | 334 | 479 | 813 | 217 | 333 | 30 | 9 | 353 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 83 | 77 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 325 | 373 | 662 | 1.036 | 338 | 388 | 27 | 7 | 444 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 331 | 283 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 26 | 40 | 110 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 237 | 337 | 558 | 896 | 322 | 270 | 33 | 12 | 381 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 309 | 269 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 120 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 175 | 269 | 294 | 563 | 119 | 269 | 39 | 11 | 257 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 65 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 297 | 339 | 636 | 102 | 394 | 40 | 8 | 284 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 235 | 471 | 706 | 235 | 333 | 41 | 0 | 304 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 413 | 94 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 143 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 228 | 294 | 458 | 752 | 230 | 295 | 32 | 8 | 329 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 366 | 324 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 85 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 216 | 302 | 392 | 694 | 176 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 311 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 167 | 150 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 371 | 613 | 985 | 313 | 348 | 27 | 9 | 425 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 163 | 223 | 279 | 502 | 115 | 308 | 54 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 133 | 101 | 44 | 0 | 57 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 447 | 412 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 18 | 25 | 176 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 194 | 245 | 367 | 612 | 172 | 265 | 39 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 331 | 294 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 133 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 187 | 267 | 418 | 685 | 231 | 241 | 40 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 309 | 279 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 144 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 140 | 213 | 229 | 443 | 90 | 243 | 47 | 8 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 65 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 203 | 246 | 449 | 82 | 312 | 55 | 5 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 176 | 412 | 588 | 235 | 272 | 59 | 0 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 424 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 228 | 340 | 567 | 163 | 261 | 40 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 366 | 335 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 102 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 176 | 242 | 296 | 537 | 119 | 216 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 167 | 155 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 287 | 445 | 733 | 213 | 297 | 33 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 163 | 223 | 279 | 502 | 115 | 333 | 54 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 312 | 406 | 718 | 168 | 370 | 39 | 8 | 316 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 506 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 21 | 29 | 216 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 188 | 236 | 350 | 586 | 162 | 267 | 40 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 546 | 489 | 130 | 22 | 3 | 28 | 46 | 164 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 266 | 333 | 495 | 828 | 229 | 334 | 30 | 8 | 358 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 331 | 294 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 133 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 187 | 267 | 418 | 685 | 231 | 245 | 40 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 331 | 283 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 26 | 40 | 110 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 237 | 337 | 558 | 896 | 322 | 270 | 33 | 12 | 381 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 358 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 190 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 142 | 205 | 229 | 434 | 87 | 265 | 49 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 391 | 345 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 153 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 188 | 272 | 310 | 582 | 122 | 294 | 39 | 10 | 264 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 424 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 228 | 340 | 567 | 163 | 264 | 40 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 413 | 94 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 143 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 228 | 294 | 458 | 752 | 230 | 295 | 32 | 8 | 329 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 490 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 33 | 157 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 196 | 258 | 351 | 609 | 155 | 241 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 533 | 474 | 115 | 20 | 0 | 28 | 49 | 130 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 243 | 324 | 462 | 786 | 219 | 274 | 24 | 9 | 346 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 162 | 223 | 276 | 499 | 114 | 308 | 54 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 509 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 21 | 29 | 216 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 187 | 236 | 348 | 584 | 161 | 259 | 40 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 331 | 296 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 133 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 186 | 267 | 416 | 682 | 230 | 241 | 40 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 360 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 190 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 142 | 205 | 228 | 432 | 86 | 256 | 49 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 422 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 228 | 341 | 569 | 164 | 261 | 40 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 487 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 33 | 157 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 197 | 258 | 353 | 611 | 156 | 241 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 360 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 190 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 142 | 205 | 228 | 432 | 86 | 256 | 49 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 422 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 228 | 341 | 569 | 164 | 261 | 40 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 487 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 33 | 157 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 197 | 258 | 353 | 611 | 156 | 241 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 10% | 380 | 350 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 127 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 255 | 349 | 604 | 152 | 264 | 33 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 257 | 357 | 614 | 159 | 265 | 31 | 6 | 272 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 27% | 212 | 195 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 255 | 345 | 600 | 148 | 264 | 33 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 27% | 58 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 257 | 353 | 610 | 155 | 264 | 33 | 7 | 271 | 67 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 259 | 340 | 598 | 151 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 271 | 56 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 111 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 213 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 187 | 257 | 335 | 592 | 148 | 248 | 33 | 7 | 271 | 56 | -26 | +2 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2735 | 2514 | 456 | 80 | 11 | 96 | 173 | 1059 | 22 | 70 | 17 | 181 | 240 | 337 | 577 | 155 | 260 | 39 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 109 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 41 | 252 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 183 | 241 | 340 | 581 | 157 | 262 | 39 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -25 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 366 PAwOBA .303 → .241 (−62)K% 23.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.003 | 16.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.003 | 4.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .303 → .241; ISO .176 → .126; BABIP .243 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASomerset Patriots · 167 PAwOBA .413 → .319 (−94)K% 26.9% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 20.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 9.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .413 → .319; ISO .313 → .230; BABIP .348 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 453 PAwOBA .320 → .242 (−78)K% 31.6% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.57% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.39% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.30% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 5.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .242; ISO .230 → .164; BABIP .295 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 309 PAwOBA .254 → .201 (−53)K% 38.8% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.83% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.68% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.48% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.03% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 3.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.07% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .254 → .201; ISO .119 → .090; BABIP .269 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 65 PAwOBA .281 → .174 (−107)K% 40.0% → 55.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷0.946 | ×1.310 | — | — | 55.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.099 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.30% | ÷1.025 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 25.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.032 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .281 → .174; ISO .102 → .063; BABIP .394 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 17 PAwOBA .295 → .170 (−125)K% 41.2% → 58.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 58.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 7.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .295 → .170; ISO .235 → .132; BABIP .333 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 331 PAwOBA .376 → .296 (−80)K% 33.2% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.23% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.08% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.34% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 16.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.20% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.952 | ×1.012 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.03% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 11.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .376 → .296; ISO .322 → .242; BABIP .270 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 447 PAwOBA .348 → .260 (−88)K% 30.4% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.95% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.52% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.13% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.30% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .348 → .260; ISO .217 → .175; BABIP .333 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).