Tyler Hardman — OGILVIE

Tyler Hardman1B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 27 R/R 6'2" / 228 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION346 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .276 / .408

PA230

HR10

SB5

K%36

BB%7

BABIP295

ISO195

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	114	104	17	3	0	3	6	61	2	4	1	163	223	279	502	115	333	54	5	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	114	101	24	5	0	4	9	45	2	4	1	238	312	406	718	168	370	39	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	3 teams	—	546	502	94	18	2	19	33	217	3	15	4	187	242	345	586	157	274	40	6	254	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	3 teams	—	546	489	130	22	3	28	46	164	3	15	4	266	333	495	828	229	334	30	8	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	331	294	55	7	2	21	29	140	3	9	3	187	267	439	706	252	246	42	9	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	331	283	67	9	2	26	40	110	3	9	3	237	337	558	896	322	270	33	12	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	3 teams	—	391	357	48	8	1	7	27	199	2	13	3	134	199	221	421	87	263	51	7	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	3 teams	—	391	345	65	10	1	10	38	153	2	13	3	188	272	310	582	122	294	39	10	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	453	423	72	19	3	15	28	196	1	12	3	170	223	336	559	165	268	43	6	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	453	413	94	25	5	20	38	143	1	12	3	228	294	458	752	230	295	32	8	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	NYY	—	346	317	76	14	0	19	23	105	6	9	0	240	303	464	767	224	295	30	7	323	105	+2	+2	+0	-6	+10	0.8
YTD	27	AAA	NYY	—	346	306	88	17	0	22	34	84	6	9	0	288	370	559	929	271	330	24	10	405	168	+27	+2	+0	-6	+10	3.3
ROS	27	AAA	NYY	10%	230	210	45	9	1	10	15	83	3	5	1	214	276	408	684	195	284	36	7	293	82	-5	+1	+0	-4	+7	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB	NYY	10%	23	21	4	1	0	1	2	8	0	1	0	190	261	381	642	190	286	35	9	289	79	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
FULL	27	AAA	NYY	—	369	338	80	15	0	20	25	113	6	10	0	237	301	459	759	222	293	31	7	321	103	+1	+2	+0	-7	+10	0.7
TOT	27	AAA	NYY	—	576	527	121	23	1	29	38	188	9	14	1	229	292	442	734	212	295	33	7	311	96	-3	+2	+0	-10	+16	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	NYY	31%	537	490	103	20	2	22	37	188	5	11	1	210	273	394	666	184	282	35	7	292	82	-11	+2	-1	-10	+15	-0.4
2028	29	MLB	NYY	40%	559	508	107	21	2	22	40	191	6	10	1	211	276	390	666	179	282	34	7	292	82	-11	+2	-1	-10	+16	-0.5
2029	30	MLB	NYY	45%	569	517	109	21	2	22	41	193	6	10	1	211	277	387	663	176	280	34	7	291	81	-12	+2	-2	-10	+16	-0.7
2027	28	MLB	NYY	31%	167	151	31	6	0	7	12	58	2	3	0	205	273	384	657	179	284	35	7	289	79	-4	+1	-0	-3	+5	-0.2
2028	29	MLB	NYY	40%	221	201	43	8	1	9	16	76	2	4	0	214	279	398	677	184	284	34	7	289	79	-5	+1	-1	-4	+6	-0.3
2029	30	MLB	NYY	45%	253	230	48	9	1	10	18	86	3	4	0	209	275	387	662	178	282	34	7	287	78	-6	+1	-1	-5	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	664	603	126	24	2	27	48	228	7	12	0	209	275	390	665	181	282	34	7	288	79	-16	+2	-2	-12	+19	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	122	23	2	26	47	223	7	12	0	207	273	385	658	178	279	34	7	288	79	-16	+2	-2	-12	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	3730	3405	650	126	15	141	256	1468	31	89	18	191	254	361	615	170	278	39	7	268	63	-155	+11	-4	-67	+106	-11.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	114	22	3	25	45	256	5	16	3	192	255	366	621	174	281	39	7	268	63	-27	+2	-1	-12	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	114	101	24	5	0	4	9	45	2	4	1	238	312	406	718	168	370	39	8	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		100	38	0	57	-98	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	397	104	16	2	22	40	136	3	14	4	262	334	479	813	217	333	30	9	353	128	+14	+1	—	—	+13	2.9
2022	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	83	77	25	6	1	6	6	22	0	1	0	325	373	662	1.036	338	388	27	7	444	198	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	331	283	67	9	2	26	40	110	3	9	3	237	337	558	896	322	270	33	12	381	150	+19	+1	—	—	+9	2.9
2024	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	309	269	47	6	1	8	33	120	2	12	2	175	269	294	563	119	269	39	11	257	55	-16	+2	—	—	+9	-0.6
2024	25	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	65	59	14	3	0	1	5	26	0	1	0	237	297	339	636	102	394	40	8	284	76	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	25	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	17	17	4	1	0	1	0	7	0	0	1	235	235	471	706	235	333	41	0	304	91	-0	-0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	26	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	453	413	94	25	5	20	38	143	1	12	3	228	294	458	752	230	295	32	8	329	110	+5	+1	—	—	+13	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Trumbolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 4,372 PA	8	4,372	218	23	250	303	462	-58	-63	6.2	6.6
	/162	664	33	3	250	303	462	-8.9	-9.6	0.9	pk7: 7
#2Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#4Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	7	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	37	3	219	314	462	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	666	26	12	209	270	386	-12	-2	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	26	12	209	270	386	-11.9	-1.5	-0.7	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Hardman (OGILVIE)	27	35	60	50	40	229/292/442	212	295	29	14	33%	7%	96	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stone Garrett 2022 · AA	26	39→37	48→55	50	31	202/237/339	137	296	17	16	38%	4%	54	-1.4	221/274/392	171	302	21	13	33%	6%	84	+0.6	219/280/389	170	298	21	11	33%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Melky Mesa 2014 · AAA	27	43	51→55	53→55	34	220/262/379	159	311	20	19	36%	4%	75	-0.0	209/245/336	127	319	13	9	37%	3%	56	-1.3	195/230/304	109	306	9	5	38%	3%	37	-1.4
✕Richie Shaffer 2018 · MLB	27	36→38	48→55	46→40	39	189/257/325	136	280	17	5	37%	7%	59	-1.1	179/241/303	124	316	14	6	45%	7%	46	-2.0	103/163/205	102	202	12	0	54%	6%	-14	-2.5
✕Brendan Katin 2010 · AAA	27	37→47	53→60	49→45	31	198/245/371	173	302	21	6	41%	4%	66	-0.6	212/276/417	205	285	27	5	35%	6%	92	+1.2	201/279/432	231	240	34	1	33%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Brahiam Maldonado 2012 · AA	26	37→44	53→55	48→50	35	198/251/365	167	287	21	9	38%	6%	67	-0.5	208/257/341	133	282	15	9	31%	5%	63	-0.8	203/246/309	106	263	11	7	27%	4%	45	-0.9
✕Sean Bouchard 2022 · AA	26	41	50→55	47→50	39	209/263/369	160	294	17	10	34%	6%	72	-0.2	219/309/394	175	294	19	14	30%	10%	98	+1.6	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Kyle Garlick 2019 · AAA	27	38→48	49→60	49→40	32	198/238/343	145	300	18	4	40%	4%	56	-1.3	216/266/401	185	305	23	6	36%	5%	83	+0.6	222/280/450	228	285	31	2	33%	6%	99	+0.6
✕Michael Hermosillo 2021 · MLB	26	39→46	49→55	49→55	38	199/276/345	145	291	17	13	36%	6%	72	-0.2	222/309/399	177	296	21	15	31%	7%	101	+1.8	207/290/404	197	249	27	18	29%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA	27	42→44	49→55	49→50	38	210/274/357	147	307	16	12	36%	6%	75	-0.0	212/284/368	156	323	18	15	38%	7%	82	+0.5	200/276/356	157	309	19	17	39%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Brock Kjeldgaard 2013 · AA	27	40→43	50→55	46→45	37	198/269/352	153	315	18	7	41%	7%	72	-0.2	190/270/333	143	291	18	5	39%	9%	67	-0.5	163/248/307	144	234	21	0	39%	9%	50	-1.5
✕CJ Alexander 2022 · AA	26	33→43	50→60	57→50	34	181/225/335	154	270	18	16	40%	5%	48	-1.9	216/257/406	190	277	26	12	32%	5%	80	+0.4	217/261/411	193	266	27	9	30%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Kyle Jensen 2015 · AAA	27	37→47	52→60	44→40	39	198/263/359	161	276	20	4	35%	7%	71	-0.3	204/253/371	167	286	21	3	36%	5%	70	-0.3	189/236/350	161	265	21	0	37%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA	28	41→43	50→55	51→55	40	215/269/364	149	295	19	17	33%	7%	74	-0.1	218/288/394	176	284	24	23	31%	9%	90	+1.0	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Jim Haley 2022 · AA	27	36→44	50	53→55	33	194/245/343	149	287	19	20	39%	4%	59	-1.1	200/255/335	135	281	16	20	34%	5%	61	-1.0	200/256/326	126	272	15	22	31%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	37→41	53→60	46→50	42	197/281/370	173	278	22	10	36%	8%	82	+0.5	208/303/397	189	294	24	7	35%	10%	98	+1.6	199/309/387	188	287	24	5	36%	12%	95	+1.0
✕Devin Harris 2015 · AA	27	39	54→60	44→40	37	211/255/391	180	278	21	3	32%	5%	76	+0.0	215/260/381	166	289	20	6	32%	5%	75	-0.0	200/245/377	177	257	23	4	32%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Kent Matthes 2015 · AAA	28	37→47	51→65	50	35	201/244/359	158	273	19	11	34%	5%	63	-0.9	209/257/334	125	276	12	10	28%	5%	60	-1.0	196/243/295	99	247	6	9	22%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Kyle Russell 2013 · AAA	27	39→45	52→60	47→45	40	204/272/374	170	300	20	7	38%	8%	79	+0.3	202/265/323	121	325	13	9	39%	7%	61	-1.0	160/219/247	87	287	10	7	45%	7%	20	-1.2
✕Jordan Qsar 2023 · AAA	27	39→38	54→55	52→50	38	197/272/375	177	325	22	13	44%	8%	79	+0.3	206/287/357	151	334	18	15	40%	9%	81	+0.4	181/285/326	145	286	18	20	40%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Kalian Sams 2013 · AA	26	33→27	53→55	56→55	32	187/232/351	164	283	22	17	42%	5%	56	-1.3	213/270/378	165	308	22	16	36%	7%	78	+0.2	191/258/375	184	256	28	18	37%	8%	69	-0.2