Zach Cole
RF Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/ROKHOU | 321 | .218/.308/.419 | 11 | 15 | 50 | — | .168/.243/.319 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AAHOU | 416 | .279/.378/.539 | 19 | 18 | 103 | — | .235/.311/.439 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBHOU | 52 | .255/.327/.553 | 4 | 3 | 145 | -0.1 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AHOU | 277 | .204/.296/.384 | 9 | 9 | 36 | — | .158/.227/.284 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBHOU | 53 | .157/.189/.353 | 3 | 0 | 48 | -0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBHOU | 70 | .200/.269/.412 | 3 | 2 | 88 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 27 | MLBHOU | 162 | .202/.271/.410 | 8 | 5 | 88 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 28 | MLBHOU | 185 | .202/.271/.406 | 8 | 5 | 87 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 117 | 95 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 211 | 359 | 326 | 685 | 116 | 290 | 26 | 14 | 324 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | — | 20 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 150 | 200 | 350 | 50 | 214 | 30 | 0 | 155 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 175 | 150 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 58 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 247 | 351 | 480 | 831 | 233 | 341 | 33 | 12 | 364 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 312 | 253 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 97 | 12 | 25 | 5 | 265 | 400 | 494 | 894 | 229 | 381 | 31 | 14 | 394 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 295 | 262 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 113 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 214 | 302 | 408 | 710 | 195 | 331 | 38 | 8 | 317 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 545 | 930 | 273 | 385 | 31 | 12 | 405 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 52 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 327 | 553 | 880 | 298 | 348 | 38 | 10 | 381 | 145 | +3 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 61 | 51 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 353 | 459 | 745 | 1.204 | 392 | 448 | 28 | 16 | 508 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 355 | 307 | 82 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 129 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 267 | 364 | 505 | 869 | 238 | 412 | 36 | 12 | 381 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 53 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 189 | 353 | 542 | 196 | 185 | 40 | 2 | 237 | 48 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 252 | 225 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 99 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 200 | 286 | 369 | 655 | 169 | 314 | 39 | 9 | 295 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 25 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 400 | 550 | 950 | 300 | 308 | 24 | 20 | 411 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 105 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 204 | 257 | 449 | 706 | 245 | 260 | 39 | 6 | 308 | 95 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -9 | +2 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 117 | 100 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 170 | 291 | 270 | 561 | 100 | 263 | 37 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros Orange | — | 20 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 150 | 250 | 50 | 167 | 45 | 0 | 93 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 175 | 159 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 78 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 170 | 241 | 308 | 550 | 138 | 297 | 45 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 312 | 268 | 53 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 130 | 12 | 25 | 5 | 198 | 306 | 358 | 665 | 160 | 325 | 42 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 295 | 269 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 137 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 164 | 237 | 305 | 542 | 141 | 297 | 46 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 478 | 786 | 261 | 286 | 42 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 52 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 327 | 553 | 880 | 298 | 348 | 38 | 10 | 382 | 145 | +3 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 61 | 54 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 296 | 377 | 611 | 988 | 315 | 415 | 33 | 11 | 408 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 355 | 320 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 152 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 225 | 299 | 409 | 709 | 184 | 381 | 43 | 8 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 53 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 189 | 353 | 542 | 196 | 185 | 40 | 2 | 239 | 48 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 252 | 232 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 119 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 151 | 218 | 263 | 481 | 112 | 273 | 47 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 25 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 320 | 500 | 820 | 273 | 260 | 32 | 12 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 137 | 120 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 158 | 263 | 250 | 513 | 92 | 258 | 38 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 137 | 115 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 200 | 328 | 304 | 633 | 104 | 276 | 27 | 12 | 299 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 427 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 208 | 15 | 37 | 9 | 187 | 283 | 340 | 623 | 152 | 321 | 43 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 487 | 403 | 104 | 20 | 8 | 19 | 66 | 155 | 15 | 37 | 9 | 258 | 382 | 489 | 871 | 231 | 366 | 32 | 14 | 384 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 292 | 48 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 149 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 164 | 240 | 308 | 548 | 144 | 296 | 46 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 284 | 62 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 121 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 218 | 308 | 419 | 727 | 201 | 336 | 38 | 8 | 325 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 468 | 421 | 99 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 192 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 235 | 310 | 447 | 757 | 211 | 382 | 41 | 9 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 468 | 405 | 112 | 24 | 7 | 23 | 57 | 166 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 277 | 373 | 541 | 913 | 264 | 410 | 35 | 12 | 397 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 305 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 148 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 154 | 218 | 292 | 510 | 138 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 330 | 296 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 126 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 196 | 279 | 378 | 657 | 182 | 291 | 38 | 9 | 295 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 137 | 119 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 160 | 263 | 252 | 515 | 92 | 249 | 38 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 427 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 208 | 15 | 37 | 9 | 187 | 283 | 340 | 623 | 152 | 315 | 43 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 289 | 48 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 149 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 166 | 240 | 311 | 551 | 145 | 296 | 46 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 468 | 419 | 99 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 192 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 236 | 310 | 449 | 759 | 212 | 382 | 41 | 9 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 302 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 148 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 156 | 218 | 295 | 513 | 139 | 258 | 45 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 289 | 48 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 149 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 166 | 240 | 311 | 551 | 145 | 296 | 46 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 468 | 419 | 99 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 192 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 236 | 310 | 449 | 759 | 212 | 382 | 41 | 9 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 302 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 148 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 156 | 218 | 295 | 513 | 139 | 258 | 45 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 45% | 380 | 344 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 150 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 199 | 268 | 413 | 681 | 214 | 279 | 39 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 45% | 70 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 269 | 412 | 681 | 212 | 284 | 40 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 56% | 290 | 263 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 200 | 270 | 410 | 680 | 210 | 280 | 39 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 62% | 300 | 271 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 115 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 270 | 406 | 676 | 205 | 279 | 38 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 63% | 294 | 267 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 22 | 111 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 270 | 400 | 670 | 199 | 279 | 38 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 63% | 289 | 263 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 108 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 269 | 394 | 663 | 193 | 278 | 37 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 56% | 162 | 147 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 63 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 271 | 410 | 680 | 208 | 284 | 39 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 62% | 185 | 167 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 71 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 271 | 406 | 677 | 203 | 284 | 38 | 8 | 298 | 87 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 63% | 184 | 166 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 271 | 400 | 671 | 198 | 283 | 38 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 63% | 183 | 165 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 271 | 393 | 664 | 191 | 282 | 37 | 8 | 293 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 819 | 743 | 152 | 30 | 4 | 39 | 60 | 312 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 205 | 272 | 413 | 685 | 209 | 285 | 38 | 7 | 298 | 76 | -12 | +2 | -1 | -16 | +18 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 31 | 48 | 248 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 205 | 273 | 414 | 686 | 208 | 287 | 38 | 7 | 298 | 76 | -10 | +2 | -1 | -13 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3071 | 2770 | 536 | 110 | 26 | 111 | 230 | 1257 | 57 | 131 | 29 | 194 | 269 | 372 | 641 | 179 | 301 | 41 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -22 | +4 | -0 | -23 | +31 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 113 | 23 | 6 | 23 | 49 | 266 | 12 | 28 | 6 | 193 | 269 | 370 | 639 | 177 | 301 | 41 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -10 | +2 | -0 | -10 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 252 PAwOBA .287 → .214 (−73)K% 39.3% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 17.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 7.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .287 → .214; ISO .169 → .115; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 25 PAwOBA .401 → .302 (−99)K% 24.0% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 13.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 12.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 6.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .302; ISO .300 → .234; BABIP .308 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 355 PAwOBA .370 → .305 (−65)K% 36.3% → 42.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.34% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷0.948 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.16% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 22.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.67% | ÷0.930 | ×0.840 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 9.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×1.013 | ×0.998 | 3.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.057 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.94% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .370 → .305; ISO .238 → .189; BABIP .412 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 61 PAwOBA .494 → .408 (−86)K% 27.9% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.87% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.39% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 25.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 8.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 3.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.71% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 11.06% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .494 → .408; ISO .392 → .319; BABIP .448 → .415. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 295 PAwOBA .308 → .242 (−66)K% 38.3% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.31% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.12% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.41% | ÷0.908 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 10.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.908 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.60% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 82, 3B 82, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .308 → .242; ISO .195 → .150; BABIP .331 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Astros · 26 PAwOBA .394 → .247 (−148)K% 30.8% → 44.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.033 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.936 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 5.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 4.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .394 → .247; ISO .273 → .164; BABIP .385 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 312 PAwOBA .385 → .290 (−95)K% 31.1% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.09% | ÷1.016 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×0.990 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×0.990 | 7.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×0.990 | 2.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.05% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 5.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .385 → .290; ISO .229 → .170; BABIP .381 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 175 PAwOBA .357 → .251 (−106)K% 33.1% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.14% | ÷0.971 | ×1.310 | — | — | 44.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷0.968 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.980 | ×0.850 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 2.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.218 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 6.27% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 96, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .357 → .251; ISO .233 → .157; BABIP .341 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).