Zach Cole — OGILVIE

Zach ColeCF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 25 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION213 act + 142 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .255 / .367

PA142

HR6

K%43

BB%8

BABIP274

ISO188

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT27

Whiff%

738.6%

xwOBA

400.297

POWER58

Barrel%

9015.8

Avg EV

8291.3

Bat Spd

8575.0

EYE50

Chase%

9014.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

6328.0

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.2M		$-3M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	137	121	19	5	0	2	10	55	6	17	3	157	255	248	503	91	266	40	7	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	137	115	23	6	0	2	16	37	6	17	3	200	328	304	633	104	276	27	12	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	487	428	82	14	6	13	41	216	15	37	9	192	285	343	629	152	342	44	8	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	487	403	104	20	8	19	66	155	15	37	9	258	382	489	871	231	366	32	14	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	321	292	51	15	3	9	19	157	10	15	2	175	249	339	588	164	333	49	6	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	321	284	62	18	3	11	27	121	10	15	2	218	308	419	727	201	336	38	8	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	468	420	102	23	7	19	42	197	5	21	7	243	319	467	786	224	405	42	9	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	468	405	112	24	7	23	57	166	5	21	7	277	373	541	913	264	410	35	12	397	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	HOU	—	213	196	26	4	1	5	13	101	4	4	1	133	202	240	442	107	233	47	6	198	9	-22	+0	+0	-2	+6	-1.8
YTD	25	AAA	HOU	—	213	191	32	5	1	6	18	82	4	4	1	168	254	298	552	131	252	38	8	254	53	-11	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
ROS	25	AAA	HOU	100%	142	128	23	4	1	6	11	61	2	4	1	180	255	367	623	188	279	43	8	281	73	-4	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB	HOU	100%	142	128	23	4	1	6	11	61	2	4	1	180	255	367	623	188	283	43	8	274	68	-5	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.2
FULL	25	AAA	HOU	—	355	324	49	8	2	11	24	162	6	8	2	151	223	290	513	139	250	46	7	228	33	-27	+1	+0	-4	+10	-2.0
TOT	25	AAA	HOU	—	355	324	49	8	2	11	24	162	6	8	2	151	223	290	513	139	250	46	7	231	35	-26	+1	+0	-4	+10	-1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	HOU	82%	415	374	72	13	3	18	32	169	6	12	2	193	267	388	655	195	281	41	8	287	78	-11	+2	+1	-4	+12	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	HOU	82%	421	379	73	13	3	17	33	166	6	12	2	193	268	377	645	185	282	39	8	290	80	-10	+2	+1	-5	+12	0.0
2029	28	MLB	HOU	82%	422	379	74	14	3	17	34	163	6	11	2	195	272	383	655	187	283	39	8	290	80	-9	+1	+0	-5	+12	-0.0
2027	26	MLB	HOU	82%	340	306	59	11	2	15	26	138	5	10	2	193	267	389	656	196	284	41	8	280	72	-11	+1	+1	-4	+10	-0.3
2028	27	MLB	HOU	82%	345	310	61	11	2	15	27	136	5	10	2	197	272	390	662	194	286	39	8	283	75	-10	+1	+1	-4	+10	-0.2
2029	28	MLB	HOU	82%	346	310	61	11	2	15	28	134	5	9	2	197	274	390	664	194	286	39	8	284	75	-10	+1	+0	-4	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1225	1101	216	39	7	55	97	489	17	36	7	196	272	394	666	198	285	40	8	285	77	-32	+4	+1	-18	+35	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	115	21	4	29	51	259	9	19	4	197	272	396	667	199	287	40	8	285	77	-17	+2	+1	-9	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	2813	2521	496	101	26	101	222	1184	56	129	28	197	277	378	654	181	317	42	8	286	77	-73	+15	+2	-30	+80	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	114	23	6	23	51	274	13	30	6	196	276	374	649	178	315	42	8	286	77	-17	+4	+0	-7	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	117	95	20	5	0	2	16	31	6	15	3	211	359	326	685	116	290	26	14	324	106	+1	+2	—	—	+3	0.6
2022	21	ROK	FCL Astros Orange	—	20	20	3	1	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	150	150	200	350	50	214	30	0	155	-23	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	175	150	37	5	3	8	21	58	3	12	4	247	351	480	831	233	341	33	12	364	137	+7	+1	—	—	+5	1.3
2023	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	312	253	67	15	5	11	45	97	12	25	5	265	400	494	894	229	381	31	14	394	160	+21	+3	—	—	+9	3.4
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	295	262	56	17	2	10	24	113	9	14	2	214	302	408	710	195	331	38	8	317	101	+0	+2	—	—	+8	1.1
2024	23	ROK	FCL Astros	—	26	22	6	1	1	1	3	8	1	1	0	273	385	545	930	273	385	31	12	405	168	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	52	47	12	2	0	4	5	20	0	3	0	255	327	553	880	298	348	38	10	381	150	+3	+1	-1	-5	+1	-0.1
2025	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	61	51	18	3	1	5	10	17	0	3	1	353	459	745	1.204	392	448	28	16	508	247	+10	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2025	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	355	307	82	19	6	14	42	129	5	15	6	267	364	505	869	238	412	36	12	381	149	+20	+1	—	—	+10	3.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	52	47	12	2	0	4	5	20	0	3	0	255	327	553	880	298	348	38	10	381	150	+3	+1	-1	-5	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,216	54	35	196	267	395	+2	-2	1.6	1.6
	/162	664	29	19	196	267	395	+0.9	-1.0	0.9	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zach Cole (OGILVIE)	25	20→27	60→58	60	50	151/223/290	139	250	11	8	46%	7%	35	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesse Franklin V 2023 · AA	24	39→28	58→65	53→55	36	210/271/411	202	305	27	15	40%	6%	89	+0.9	228/294/433	205	316	27	18	35%	7%	103	+1.9	218/287/454	235	286	34	24	36%	6%	102	+1.2
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	38→40	54→55	52→50	44	205/277/385	180	283	22	14	35%	9%	83	+0.6	217/290/383	166	323	18	12	36%	9%	88	+0.9	211/290/368	157	322	17	12	37%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Niko Hulsizer 2023 · AAA	26	43→29	57→60	52→50	37	210/279/405	195	353	27	16	46%	8%	89	+1.0	196/276/341	145	310	17	11	39%	9%	72	-0.2	159/253/283	124	247	14	8	39%	10%	46	-1.6
✕Nick Pratto 2023 · MLB	24	36→45	58→60	50	46	200/294/408	208	280	27	9	37%	10%	97	+1.5	196/269/335	139	300	16	9	37%	8%	67	-0.5	181/252/298	117	279	13	9	37%	8%	47	-1.5
✕Jonathan Van Every 2006 · AA	26	40→44	58→55	49→50	40	208/286/402	194	323	27	15	42%	9%	92	+1.2	225/289/403	178	347	21	11	39%	7%	93	+1.3	227/291/410	183	350	21	8	39%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Kyle McCann 2023 · AAA	25	35→34	58→55	48→40	38	191/268/383	192	306	27	4	45%	8%	80	+0.4	218/286/378	160	343	21	5	40%	8%	85	+0.7	203/275/330	127	330	17	3	41%	7%	64	-0.3
✕Alex Jackson 2022 · MLB	26	37→35	59→60	48→30	35	199/277/403	204	303	28	5	42%	6%	89	+1.0	206/272/372	166	280	20	5	33%	7%	79	+0.3	186/249/347	161	235	20	2	30%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Bobby Bradley 2021 · MLB	25	40	63→65	47→40	37	223/277/452	229	307	32	3	38%	6%	102	+1.8	202/274/394	192	287	27	4	38%	7%	85	+0.7	176/256/370	193	237	29	0	39%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Sam Huff 2023 · MLB	25	42	57→55	47→45	37	223/278/408	185	321	28	4	39%	6%	90	+1.0	220/278/378	158	322	20	3	36%	7%	82	+0.5	209/269/356	147	309	17	0	36%	7%	69	-0.2
●Nolan Gorman 2023 · MLB	23	41→43	57→60	50→45	39	224/275/408	184	296	27	6	34%	6%	89	+0.9	220/293/423	203	295	29	7	34%	9%	100	+1.7	211/295/415	204	279	29	6	34%	10%	95	+1.1
●Jack Suwinski 2023 · MLB	25	39→42	57→60	45→50	45	211/291/406	195	286	26	8	35%	9%	95	+1.4	209/299/400	191	283	25	13	33%	11%	97	+1.5	199/296/388	189	266	25	15	34%	11%	89	+0.8
✕Kyle Russell 2011 · AA	25	43→45	57→60	51→45	36	214/277/417	203	345	25	9	43%	7%	92	+1.2	200/267/363	163	309	19	7	39%	8%	73	-0.1	178/250/321	143	271	16	6	38%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→48	53→55	53→55	44	228/293/405	176	290	21	24	29%	8%	95	+1.4	199/253/331	132	275	13	16	31%	6%	59	-1.1	189/253/305	116	256	9	10	28%	6%	49	-0.9
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	58→60	52→50	42	230/293/433	203	313	26	12	34%	8%	102	+1.9	226/286/400	174	310	19	11	32%	7%	90	+1.0	213/276/388	175	290	18	8	32%	7%	79	+0.3
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	38→37	56→55	53→50	35	214/252/400	187	277	25	17	33%	4%	77	+0.1	219/282/362	143	318	16	10	34%	7%	79	+0.3	222/301/341	118	337	12	5	34%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Cody Thomas 2022 · AAA	27	39→46	63→60	49→45	36	219/268/456	237	300	31	5	38%	6%	98	+1.6	230/280/410	180	306	22	6	31%	6%	91	+1.1	238/287/417	179	293	22	5	26%	5%	92	+1.0
✕Brad Eldred 2006 · MLB	26	42→40	68→65	47→45	37	239/288/499	260	299	38	8	34%	6%	119	+3.1	208/257/418	210	262	30	9	33%	5%	85	+0.7	203/256/418	215	253	31	9	34%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Trey Cabbage 2023 · AA	26	49→43	56→60	53→55	36	225/290/417	192	386	25	14	45%	8%	97	+1.5	219/280/402	183	344	22	26	40%	7%	89	+1.0	208/270/395	187	318	23	32	40%	7%	80	+0.3
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	40→38	58→60	56→55	46	219/283/421	202	243	26	15	23%	7%	95	+1.4	228/293/391	163	266	18	19	21%	7%	92	+1.2	228/294/377	150	266	16	23	21%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Andrew Lambo 2014 · MLB	25	43→49	60→65	47→45	38	232/282/444	212	306	29	6	34%	6%	101	+1.8	237/284/429	192	297	24	6	28%	6%	98	+1.6	242/289/418	176	288	19	4	23%	6%	93	+0.6