Lucas Kelly — OGILVIE

Lucas Kelly P Everett AquaSox

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%26.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—45

CTRL—45

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.63	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.63	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	52	230	86	31	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.3%	14.0%	1.6%	4.82	3.43	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	52	230	86	31	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.3%	14.0%	1.6%	4.82	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SEA	24	0	31	141	57	21	1	0%	1.3	40.4%	14.9%	25.5%	0.7%	4.88	1.96	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SEA	16	0	21	89	29	10	2	0%	1.3	32.6%	11.2%	21.3%	2.2%	4.71	3.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	50	0	53	222	59	25	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	51	0	53	225	60	23	7	0%	1.0	26.9%	10.3%	16.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.12	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	51	0	53	225	60	23	7	0%	1.0	26.9%	10.2%	16.6%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	50	0	52	222	59	23	7	0%	1.1	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	22	0	23	97	26	11	3	0%	1.0	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	33	0	35	148	40	15	4	0%	1.1	26.9%	10.3%	16.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.12	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	40	0	42	177	48	18	5	0%	1.1	26.9%	10.2%	16.6%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	51	20	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	0	145	612	164	64	18	0%	1.1	26.8%	10.4%	16.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.77	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	226	88	25	0%	1.0	26.8%	10.4%	16.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		45	0	58	257	73	40	6	0%	1.3	28.6%	15.6%	12.9%	2.2%	5.09	3.87	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	881	252	138	19	0%	1.3	28.6%	15.6%	12.9%	2.2%	5.09	3.87	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	26.5%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.15	26.8%	16.3%	159	-0.26	—	—	—
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	94
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	93
Taylor Floyd R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.30	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.82	3.48	359	93
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	92
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	91
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	91
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.6%	5.7%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	91
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.29	19.7%	2.0%	149	+1.55	3.74	203	89
Jacob Webb R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	23	SU	3.33	26.7%	12.8%	1.6%	.328	4.52	18.9%	7.7%	170	+1.19	3.33	268	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	88
Magnus Ellerts R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	29.5%	11.5%	2.8%	.325	3.98	27.0%	10.2%	118	+0.37	3.56	159	88
Jesen Therrien R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	23	SU	3.98	25.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.310	3.40	21.3%	15.8%	76	-0.58	2.72	192	88
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	88
Patrick Ruotolo R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	27.5%	10.6%	3.9%	.263	3.60	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.65	3.07	190	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Zach Bryant R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	23	SU	4.65	25.7%	10.6%	4.3%	.236	6.43	16.8%	3.2%	61	+1.78	4.51	215	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	52	26.7%	10.8%	1.14	4.24
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81