Jonathan Brand — OGILVIE

Jonathan Brand P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 26 RHP 5'9" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%20.3%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	29	0	38	153	47	14	3	0%	1.3	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	2.6%	2.58	3.95	—
2023	23	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	29	0	38	153	47	14	3	0%	1.3	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	2.6%	2.58	3.95	—
2023	23	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	29	0	38	153	47	14	3	0%	1.3	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	2.0%	2.58	2.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.61	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	2.4%	3.70	4.61	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	56	244	51	22	4	0%	1.6	20.9%	9.0%	11.9%	1.6%	3.70	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.0%	3.16	3.34	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.0%	3.16	3.34	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	0	51	218	59	19	4	0%	1.6	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.8%	3.16	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	6.1%	5.34	6.09	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	6.1%	5.34	6.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	TEX	41	1	64	277	75	30	14	2%	1.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.2%	5.1%	5.34	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	59	0	62	261	54	24	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.45	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	253	52	23	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	20	9	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.45	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	31	14	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	51	23	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.12	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	78	24	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		139	1	212	900	180	92	31	1%	1.5	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.4%	3.83	4.60	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	1	200	850	170	87	29	1%	1.5	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.4%	3.83	4.60	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Brand (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.3%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.49	20.6%	11.5%	122	+0.06	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	88
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	87
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	85
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	85
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	84
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	84
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	20.5%	9.1%	1.12	4.46
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38