Jackson Kelley — OGILVIE

Jackson Kelley P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	221	77	25	4	0%	1.4	26.5%	13.1%	13.4%	2.3%	4.13	3.80	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	221	77	25	4	0%	1.4	26.5%	13.1%	13.4%	2.3%	4.13	3.80	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	52	221	77	25	4	0%	1.4	34.8%	11.3%	23.5%	1.8%	4.13	2.58	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.9%	3.11	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.9%	3.11	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	2.3%	3.11	2.91	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.10	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.10	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	22.1%	11.7%	10.3%	0.7%	2.10	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	52	0	78	323	79	29	3	0%	1.5	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	1.2%	2.43	3.21	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	52	0	78	323	79	29	3	0%	1.5	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	1.2%	2.43	3.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	48	0	72	297	77	26	3	0%	1.5	25.9%	8.8%	17.2%	1.0%	2.39	2.57	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	4	0	6	26	2	3	0	0%	1.5	7.7%	11.5%	-3.8%	0.0%	3.00	3.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	71	0	75	317	67	38	9	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.71	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	69	0	73	307	65	36	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	70	293	62	35	9	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	276	57	34	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.04	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	27	0	28	118	25	14	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.71	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	41	0	43	182	39	21	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	47	0	49	207	44	25	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	49	0	51	215	45	26	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	0	172	726	153	87	22	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	101	26	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		155	1	228	945	213	108	18	1%	1.5	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	1.9%	2.96	3.68	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	1	200	829	187	95	16	1%	1.5	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	1.9%	2.96	3.68	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.0%	12.1%	2.7%	—	4.78	21.2%	9.3%	217	+0.07	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	62	21.1%	12.0%	1.14	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10