Jackson Kelley
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.1%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 77 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 4.13 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 77 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.8% | 11.3% | 23.5% | 1.8% | 4.13 | 2.58 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 64 | 256 | 81 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 64 | 256 | 81 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.6% | 9.4% | 22.3% | 2.3% | 3.11 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 1 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.10 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 1 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.10 | 3.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 34 | 0 | 50 | 207 | 45 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 2.52 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 75 | 313 | 69 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 3.16 | 4.01 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 1 | 200 | 829 | 185 | 97 | 18 | 1% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 3.05 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 1 | 200 | 828 | 185 | 97 | 18 | 1% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 3.05 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.47 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 25 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 90 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 88 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 85 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 84 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 84 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 83 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 82 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 156 | 82 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .307 | 5.19 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.51 | 3.33 | 204 | 82 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 1.05 | 4.44 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |