Jackson Kelley
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.4%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 38 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 77 | 25 | 4 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 42 | 0 | 64 | 256 | 81 | 24 | 6 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 23 | 1 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 17 | 1 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 2.10 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 5 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 1 | 159 | 656 | 152 | 81 | 14 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 3.87 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 1 | 200 | 827 | 192 | 102 | 18 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 3.87 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.46 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 105 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 93 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 92 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 88 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 86 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 85 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 85 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 84 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 84 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 83 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 83 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 82 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .362 | 5.48 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.76 | 2.78 | 181 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.