Justin Yeager — OGILVIE

Justin Yeager P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	40	170	60	18	3	0%	1.3	26.6%	12.3%	14.2%	2.1%	2.92	3.59	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	40	170	60	18	3	0%	1.3	35.3%	10.6%	24.7%	1.8%	2.92	2.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	52	218	81	31	6	0%	1.1	29.6%	15.8%	13.8%	3.6%	3.10	4.58	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	52	218	81	31	6	0%	1.1	37.2%	14.2%	22.9%	2.8%	3.10	3.27	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.02	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.02	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.24	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	1.4%	3.88	3.32	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	1.4%	3.88	3.32	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	1.4%	3.88	2.79	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.9%	7.1%	0.9%	2.04	3.46	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.9%	7.1%	0.9%	2.04	3.46	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	0.9%	2.04	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	61	286	63	36	19	0%	1.4	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	7.4%	7.04	7.12	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	61	286	63	36	19	0%	1.4	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	7.4%	7.04	7.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	SD	10	0	16	63	24	7	2	0%	1.6	38.1%	11.1%	27.0%	3.2%	2.25	3.03	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	SD	33	0	45	223	39	29	17	0%	1.4	17.5%	13.0%	4.5%	7.6%	8.74	7.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	35	0	37	155	30	16	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.5%	4.50	4.55	0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	12	0	13	55	11	6	1	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.5%	4.50	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	57	11	6	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.5%	4.50	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	89	15	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.5%	4.50	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		222	0	266	1135	253	139	38	0%	1.2	22.3%	12.2%	10.0%	3.3%	3.85	4.59	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	852	190	104	28	0%	1.2	22.3%	12.2%	10.0%	3.3%	3.85	4.59	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Yeager (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	2.3%	—	4.55	19.5%	9.0%	37	+0.12	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	89
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	89
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	88
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	87
Bryan Morris R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	28	SU	3.48	17.0%	9.4%	1.1%	.318	4.82	16.7%	5.9%	39	+1.34	3.48	102	85
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	85
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	83
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	83
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	19.4%	10.4%	0.94	4.46
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47