Justin Yeager
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%21.1%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Braves | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.52 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Braves | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.60 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 2.92 | 3.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.3% | 10.6% | 24.7% | 1.8% | 2.92 | 2.42 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 81 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 3.9% | 3.10 | 4.74 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 81 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.2% | 14.2% | 22.9% | 2.8% | 3.10 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.2% | 27.3% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.2% | 27.3% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.24 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 47 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 1.2% | 3.88 | 3.21 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 47 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 1.4% | 3.88 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 226 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 2.04 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 226 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.9% | 2.04 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 0 | 38 | 184 | 29 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.9% | 14.8% | -1.0% | 6.6% | 7.75 | 7.42 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 77 | 346 | 63 | 43 | 15 | — | — | 18.3% | 12.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.03 | 5.86 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.03 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 93 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 207 | 0 | 243 | 1033 | 227 | 134 | 29 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.66 | 4.41 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 170 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 187 | 111 | 23 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.66 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Yeager (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.44 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 37 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 87 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 87 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 86 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 86 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 86 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 85 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 84 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 84 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 83 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Chaz Roe R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.16 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .300 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.7% | 140 | -0.38 | 1.69 | 257 | 83 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.39 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 162 | 83 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .327 | 3.25 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 0.92 | 4.34 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |