Magnus Ellerts — OGILVIE

Magnus Ellerts P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%27.8%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD5050

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	41	171	67	17	4	0%	1.3	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.73	3.61	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	41	171	67	17	4	0%	1.3	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.73	3.61	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	41	171	67	17	4	0%	1.3	39.2%	9.9%	29.2%	2.3%	3.73	2.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	28.1%	13.7%	14.3%	2.0%	2.91	3.56	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	28.1%	13.7%	14.3%	2.0%	2.91	3.56	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	35.9%	12.1%	23.8%	1.7%	2.91	2.56	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	26.3%	19.3%	7.0%	2.0%	4.71	4.42	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	26.3%	19.3%	7.0%	2.0%	4.71	4.42	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	32.5%	17.5%	14.9%	1.5%	4.71	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	17	0	21	96	30	17	1	0%	1.2	25.3%	20.1%	5.2%	1.3%	3.05	4.22	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	17	0	21	96	30	17	1	0%	1.2	25.3%	20.1%	5.2%	1.3%	3.05	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CLE	16	0	20	93	29	17	1	0%	1.2	31.2%	18.3%	12.9%	1.1%	3.15	3.37	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CLE	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	21	6	4	1	0%	1.0	27.8%	17.4%	10.3%	2.7%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	26	117	36	21	2	—	—	30.6%	17.7%	13.0%	1.4%	3.40	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	57	0	60	251	69	42	7	0%	1.0	27.5%	16.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.78	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	56	0	59	247	67	40	7	0%	1.0	27.2%	16.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.78	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	25	0	26	110	30	18	3	0%	1.0	27.5%	16.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.78	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	35	0	37	156	43	25	4	0%	1.1	27.2%	16.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	73	44	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	16.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.78	4.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	230	139	25	0%	1.1	27.3%	16.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.78	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		126	0	159	692	191	108	15	0%	1.3	27.5%	15.6%	11.9%	2.1%	3.62	3.91	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	869	239	136	18	0%	1.3	27.5%	15.6%	11.9%	2.1%	3.62	3.91	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Magnus Ellerts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	27.8%	17.4%	2.7%	—	4.78	27.4%	11.0%	118	-0.07	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	84
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	84
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	82
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	82
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	81
Christopher Troye R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	31.4%	18.2%	1.8%	.287	5.52	22.2%	2.8%	75	+1.76	3.42	158	81
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	81
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.39	19.5%	9.1%	108	-1.19	3.32	262	81
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	81
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	80
Zac Ryan R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	25	SU	3.85	25.4%	15.3%	1.8%	.266	5.82	22.4%	6.6%	31	+1.97	3.83	184	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	27.5%	16.7%	1.08	4.80
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84