Jackson Lovich

SS Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 192 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#201ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ANYY	26	.636/.692/1.000	0	3	273	—	.522/.577/.826
2026	22	A+/ANYY	510	.287/.365/.512	24	41	82	—	.227/.286/.395
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBNYY	513	.245/.302/.409	17	16	99	0.9
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBNYY	147	.248/.307/.422	5	5	100	0.6
2029PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBNYY	242	.248/.308/.423	9	7	101	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed99

wRC+86

wOBA83

ISO74

BB%44

Z-Con%23

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsMatt McLain (age 23) · Henry Davis (age 23) · Bo Naylor (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .300 / .406

PA210

HR7

SB7

K%30

BB%7

ISO165

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	22	14	4	2	0	4	3	0	3	0	636	692	1.000	1.692	364	737	12	15	708	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	147	129	41	4	2	6	16	45	0	20	2	318	393	519	912	202	438	31	11	396	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	363	320	88	17	2	18	36	101	3	21	7	275	354	509	863	234	341	28	10	375	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	23	12	3	2	0	3	4	0	3	0	522	577	826	1.403	304	618	15	12	572	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	147	135	35	3	2	5	10	59	0	20	2	259	310	422	733	163	387	40	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	363	331	71	13	2	13	25	137	3	21	7	215	276	384	659	169	306	38	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	23	12	3	2	0	3	4	0	3	0	522	577	826	1.403	304	632	15	12	572	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	22	14	4	2	0	4	3	0	3	0	636	692	1.000	1.692	364	737	12	15	708	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	510	467	105	16	3	18	34	196	3	41	9	225	282	388	669	163	336	38	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	510	449	129	21	4	24	52	146	3	41	9	287	365	512	877	225	368	29	10	381	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	23	12	3	2	0	3	4	0	3	0	522	577	826	1.403	304	618	15	12	572	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	510	468	105	16	3	18	34	196	3	41	9	224	282	387	668	162	329	38	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	26	23	12	3	2	0	3	4	0	3	0	522	577	826	1.403	304	618	15	12	572	273	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	510	468	105	16	3	18	34	196	3	41	9	224	282	387	668	162	329	38	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	513	469	114	20	3	17	36	155	3	16	3	245	302	409	712	165	325	30	7	314	99	-1	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	30%	481	441	108	19	3	16	34	143	3	15	3	246	305	413	718	167	324	30	7	317	100	+0	+2	+0	+5	+10	1.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	504	460	113	20	3	17	36	147	3	16	3	246	306	414	720	167	322	29	7	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+5	+11	2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	510	464	114	20	3	17	37	147	4	15	3	246	307	413	720	167	320	29	7	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+5	+11	2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	509	462	114	20	3	17	38	146	4	15	3	245	307	411	717	165	318	29	7	317	101	+0	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	504	459	112	20	3	16	37	144	3	13	3	244	305	406	712	163	316	29	7	315	99	-0	+1	-0	+5	+11	1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	495	453	109	20	3	15	36	143	3	10	3	241	303	400	703	159	315	29	7	311	97	-2	+1	-1	+5	+11	1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	68%	485	444	106	19	3	15	35	142	3	8	2	239	299	393	692	154	313	29	7	307	94	-4	+1	-2	+5	+11	1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	74%	474	434	102	18	3	14	34	140	3	4	2	235	295	384	678	149	311	30	7	301	90	-6	+0	-2	+5	+10	0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	78%	380	348	79	14	2	10	27	114	2	1	1	230	289	372	660	142	307	30	7	294	85	-7	-0	-3	+4	+8	0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYY	81%	345	316	71	12	2	9	24	106	2	1	1	223	281	357	638	134	302	31	7	285	79	-9	-0	-4	+4	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	30%	147	135	33	6	1	5	10	44	1	5	1	248	307	422	728	174	324	30	7	321	100	+0	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	242	221	56	10	2	9	17	71	2	7	2	248	308	423	731	174	323	29	7	322	101	+0	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	297	271	67	12	2	10	22	86	2	9	2	248	309	422	731	174	321	29	7	322	101	+0	+1	+0	+3	+6	1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	316	288	72	13	2	11	23	91	2	9	2	247	308	420	728	172	319	29	7	321	101	+0	+1	+0	+3	+7	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	325	296	73	13	2	11	24	93	2	8	2	246	307	415	722	169	317	29	7	319	99	-0	+1	-0	+3	+7	1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	350	319	78	14	2	12	26	101	2	7	2	243	304	409	713	165	315	29	7	315	97	-1	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	68%	332	303	73	13	2	11	24	97	2	5	1	240	301	401	702	161	314	29	7	311	94	-2	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	74%	349	319	75	13	2	11	25	103	2	3	1	236	296	391	688	155	311	30	7	305	90	-4	+0	-2	+4	+8	0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	78%	296	271	64	11	2	9	21	89	2	1	1	231	290	379	669	148	307	30	7	297	85	-5	-0	-3	+3	+6	0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYY	81%	279	257	58	10	1	8	19	85	1	0	1	225	283	364	646	139	302	30	7	288	79	-7	-0	-3	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2933	2680	649	115	18	97	211	860	18	54	15	242	302	407	709	165	318	29	7	312	95	-19	+5	-9	+31	+64	7.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	143	25	4	21	47	191	4	12	3	241	301	402	703	162	317	29	7	312	95	-4	+1	-2	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5433	4963	1191	209	34	171	390	1635	34	149	34	240	300	399	699	159	320	30	7	309	95	-25	+11	-11	+52	+106	13.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	142	25	4	20	47	196	4	18	4	239	300	396	695	157	319	30	7	309	95	-3	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 363 PAwOBA .368 → .283 (−85)K% 27.8% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.82%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	37.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.92%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	6.77%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.64%
Singles /BIP	23.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.030	×0.990	21.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.030	×0.990	6.57%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.030	×0.990	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	8.22%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	6.51%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .368 → .283; ISO .234 → .173; BABIP .341 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 147 PAwOBA .391 → .306 (−85)K% 30.6% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.61%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	40.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.88%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	6.52%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.52%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.043	×0.998	31.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.043	×0.998	3.87%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.043	×0.998	2.11%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	6.27%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .391 → .306; ISO .202 → .164; BABIP .438 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 26 PAwOBA .689 → .572 (−117)K% 11.5% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.54%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	15.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	—	10.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	42.11%	÷1.119	×0.920	—	—	34.62%
Doubles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.046	×0.830	—	—	16.71%
Triples /BIP	10.53%	÷0.913	×0.910	—	—	10.49%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.842	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .689 → .572; ISO .364 → .327; BABIP .737 → .618. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3Mike Bordick'90-'03 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,484 PA	9.8	6,484	91	96	250*	311*	357*	+65	-10	12.7	14.0
/162	664	9	10	+6.7	-1.0	1.3	pk7: 15
#4Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#6Dick Green'63-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,462 PA	6.7	4,462	80	26	246*	308*	382*	+16	+18	11.8	12.8
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+2.7	1.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.7	3,144	97	62	241	297	398	+34	+0	10.5	9.4
/162	664	20	13	+7.1	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Lovich (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	243/300/406	163	325	7	7	30%	7%	99	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Joey Wiemer 2022 · A	23	46→44	54→55	54→55	45	236/309/411	175	307	23	19	30%	8%	103	+1.6	215/285/363	148	297	16	19	31%	8%	82	+0.0	203/277/335	132	283	14	20	32%	8%	72	-0.6
✕Everson Pereira 2023 · AA	22	47→49	52→55	54→50	39	232/288/405	173	334	20	16	36%	7%	93	+0.8	228/292/381	153	338	18	15	35%	7%	90	+0.6	220/292/370	150	322	19	15	35%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Ryan Ritter 2024 · AA	23	44→48	49→50	52→50	40	214/290/365	152	331	17	14	38%	8%	86	+0.3	231/304/361	130	324	13	14	31%	7%	90	+0.6	239/315/362	122	327	11	14	28%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Ryan Cordell 2015 · A	23	52→42	48→50	56→50	44	256/307/407	151	319	15	16	24%	6%	101	+1.4	227/273/376	149	291	17	14	27%	5%	81	-0.1	216/263/367	151	275	18	14	28%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Denzel Clarke 2024 · AA	24	44	51→50	58→55	42	212/299/377	164	333	18	19	39%	9%	92	+0.7	219/288/349	130	338	12	24	36%	7%	80	-0.1	215/283/336	120	333	10	29	36%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Jack Brannigan 2024 · A	23	42	50	54→50	43	209/290/360	151	317	19	19	38%	9%	84	+0.2	195/271/346	151	282	18	14	36%	8%	74	-0.5	175/254/322	147	250	17	12	36%	8%	60	-0.8
✕Matt Shaw 2024 · AA	22	52→48	49→55	59→55	41	261/297/413	152	307	16	22	21%	4%	98	+1.2	244/315/408	164	287	19	23	21%	8%	104	+1.6	237/316/404	167	275	19	23	21%	9%	102	+1.1
✕Joe Benson 2011 · AA	23	46→52	53→55	51→50	42	231/304/411	181	319	19	16	32%	7%	101	+1.4	221/288/375	154	306	15	14	31%	7%	86	+0.3	208/274/344	136	292	12	14	31%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Sean Coyle 2015 · AA	23	45→38	51→50	54→50	39	226/282/386	160	316	19	14	34%	6%	87	+0.4	189/253/309	120	292	13	11	38%	7%	59	-1.7	149/217/242	93	237	9	9	39%	7%	27	-1.7
✕Brett Wisely 2022 · A	23	48→51	50	52→55	43	241/298/388	147	324	18	20	31%	8%	93	+0.8	236/304/372	136	307	14	18	26%	8%	91	+0.7	235/306/367	132	300	12	17	24%	8%	89	+0.4

Jackson Lovich

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps