Nelson Keljo

P Hill City Howlers

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 228 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	21	82	5.25	4.57	31.9%	15.8%	—	K 23.9% · BB 18.4% · FIP 6.07
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	11	11	58	5.49	5.49	23.9%	17.4%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	6	6	32	5.21	5.10	24.4%	14.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	9	9	51	4.97	4.85	24.7%	13.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 80%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23) · Doug Nikhazy (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%23.9%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	82	373	119	59	14	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	82	373	119	59	14	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	82	373	119	59	14	95%	3.7	31.9%	15.8%	16.1%	3.8%	5.25	4.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	11	11	58	245	58	43	8	100%	5.3	23.9%	17.4%	6.5%	3.3%	5.49	5.49	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	76	321	78	48	10	100%	5.4	24.4%	14.9%	9.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.10	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	77	325	80	43	10	100%	5.9	24.7%	13.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.97	4.85	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	77	325	81	42	10	100%	5.9	24.8%	13.0%	11.8%	3.2%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	76	320	79	42	10	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.83	4.82	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	310	76	41	10	100%	6.1	24.6%	13.2%	11.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.91	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	70	296	72	40	10	100%	5.9	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.04	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	66	279	67	38	10	100%	6.0	24.0%	13.7%	10.4%	3.7%	5.12	5.22	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	32	135	33	20	4	100%	5.3	24.4%	14.9%	9.5%	3.2%	5.21	5.10	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	51	215	53	29	7	100%	5.7	24.7%	13.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.97	4.85	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	64	34	8	100%	6.1	24.8%	13.0%	11.8%	3.2%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	65	274	68	36	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	13.0%	11.7%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	65	274	68	36	9	100%	5.9	24.6%	13.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.91	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	64	270	66	36	9	100%	5.8	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.04	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	62	35	10	100%	6.1	24.0%	13.7%	10.4%	3.7%	5.11	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	399	1685	413	226	57	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.57	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	113	29	100%	5.9	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		22	21	82	373	89	69	18	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	51	200	906	217	167	44	95%	3.7	23.9%	18.4%	5.5%	4.8%	5.25	6.07	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelson Keljo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	23.9%	17.4%	3.3%	—	4.92	24.6%	10.9%	230	-0.57	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	87
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	81
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	81
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	80
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	78
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	77
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	76
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	74
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	73
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	73
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	72
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	71
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	71
Ian Seymour L 2022 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	23.0%	16.3%	3.0%	.450	3.05	24.2%	17.6%	310	-1.85	2.87	495	71
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	71
Garrett Olson L 2007 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	17.3%	16.7%	2.5%	.369	5.17	14.1%	4.6%	251	+0.06	4.57	283	70
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	69
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	72	24.5%	13.9%	1.29	5.03
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*