Grayson Grinsell

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ADET	21	12	74	5.23	4.28	25.5%	11.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	15	15	90	5.16	5.16	20.0%	12.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	8	8	51	4.86	4.77	21.3%	11.3%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBDET	15	15	91	4.68	4.58	22.1%	10.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsNate Peterson (age 23) · Hayden Wynja (age 24) · Adam Tulloch (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%20.0%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
2026	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	3.3%	5.23	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	15	15	90	380	76	48	12	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.16	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	118	499	106	56	16	100%	6.2	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.2%	4.93	4.84	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	138	581	129	61	18	100%	6.3	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.65	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	150	632	142	65	20	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.59	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	148	623	140	64	20	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.62	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	143	604	135	63	20	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.71	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	137	577	128	61	20	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	128	543	118	59	20	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	5.02	-0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	120	506	108	57	19	100%	6.3	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.8%	5.10	5.22	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	46	24	7	100%	6.4	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	91	384	85	40	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.58	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	119	502	113	52	15	100%	6.3	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.52	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	126	532	120	55	16	100%	6.3	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.0%	4.56	4.55	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	127	536	120	56	17	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	124	524	116	56	17	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	118	498	108	55	17	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.94	-0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	111	469	100	53	17	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	868	3663	808	390	118	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.35	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	186	90	27	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		21	12	74	333	63	45	14	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	32	200	900	170	121	39	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Grinsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	20.0%	12.7%	3.2%	—	4.68	22.0%	11.4%	406	-0.48	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	88
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	88
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	85
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	83
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	82
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	81
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	80
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	80
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	80
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	80
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	79
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	130	21.9%	10.8%	1.28	4.82
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45