Josh Timmerman
P
Carolina Mudcats
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 1.80 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 1.77 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 13 | 61 | 270 | 65 | 35 | 1 | 72% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 4.28 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 13 | 61 | 270 | 65 | 35 | 1 | 72% | 3.4 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 0.4% | 4.28 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 5 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 34.4% | -9.4% | 6.2% | 11.81 | 8.77 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 5 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 34.4% | -9.4% | 6.2% | 11.81 | 11.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 0 | 146 | 616 | 146 | 57 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 78 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 25 | 14 | 69 | 315 | 60 | 52 | 2 | 56% | 2.8 | 19.0% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 4.93 | 3.94 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 40 | 200 | 909 | 172 | 150 | 6 | 56% | 2.8 | 19.0% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 4.93 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Timmerman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.20 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 122 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 86 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 83 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 81 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 80 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 80 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 80 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 79 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.08 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .338 | 4.11 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 154 | -0.97 | 3.26 | 376 | 79 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .309 | 3.87 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 101 | -0.99 | 3.80 | 255 | 79 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 78 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 77 |
| Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 18.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | .256 | 5.40 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 324 | +1.16 | 4.14 | 474 | 77 |
| Sean Harney R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 77 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 40 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 4.26 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |