Josh Timmerman — OGILVIE

Josh Timmerman P Carolina Mudcats

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%20.9%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	13	2	0	0	50%	1.5	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.80	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	13	2	0	0	50%	1.5	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.80	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	13	2	0	0	50%	1.5	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.77	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	61	270	65	35	1	72%	3.4	18.4%	15.2%	3.3%	0.0%	4.28	3.46	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	61	270	65	35	1	72%	3.4	18.4%	15.2%	3.3%	0.0%	4.28	3.46	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	13	61	270	65	35	1	72%	3.4	24.1%	13.0%	11.1%	0.4%	4.28	2.90	—
2025	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	0	5	32	8	11	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	34.4%	-9.4%	6.2%	11.81	8.77	—
2025	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	5	0	5	32	8	11	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	34.4%	-9.4%	6.2%	11.81	8.77	—
2025	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	5	0	5	32	8	11	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	34.4%	-9.4%	6.2%	11.81	11.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	MIL	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	56	238	52	29	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	241	53	27	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.63	4.54	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	241	54	26	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.51	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	56	237	53	26	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	23	0	24	101	22	12	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.78	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	36	0	38	160	36	18	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.71	4.62	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	43	0	45	190	43	21	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.59	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	46	0	48	203	46	22	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		147	0	155	654	146	73	19	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.68	4.25	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	94	25	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.68	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		25	14	69	315	60	52	2	56%	2.8	19.0%	16.5%	2.5%	0.6%	4.93	3.94	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	40	200	909	172	150	6	56%	2.8	19.0%	16.5%	2.5%	0.6%	4.93	3.94	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Timmerman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	20.9%	13.5%	2.8%	—	4.58	22.1%	10.8%	170	-0.38	—	—	—
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	79
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	78
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	77
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	77
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	77
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.7%	248	-0.19	3.67	383	77
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	77
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	53	22.0%	11.6%	1.09	4.67
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64