Aidan Major — OGILVIE

Aidan Major P Hill City Howlers

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%20.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	17	16	63	268	57	26	10	94%	3.7	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	5.1%	4.55	6.14	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	17	16	63	268	57	26	10	94%	3.7	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	5.1%	4.55	6.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CLE	2	1	5	17	6	0	0	50%	2.5	35.3%	0.0%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.12	—
2026	23	A RAW	CLE	11	11	44	181	38	18	5	100%	4.0	21.0%	9.9%	11.0%	2.8%	3.86	4.10	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CLE	4	4	14	70	13	8	5	100%	3.5	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	7.1%	8.36	6.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	268	56	30	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.78	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	58	29	8	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	59	29	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	63	267	58	28	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	27	114	24	13	3	100%	5.4	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.78	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	43	182	39	19	5	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.67	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	47	23	6	100%	6.4	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	54	228	50	24	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	175	737	160	79	22	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.7%	11.0%	3.0%	4.69	4.28	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	90	25	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.7%	11.0%	3.0%	4.69	4.28	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		17	16	63	268	41	33	14	94%	3.7	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	5.1%	4.55	6.14	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	51	200	846	129	103	43	94%	3.7	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	5.1%	4.55	6.14	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Major (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.0%	11.9%	3.1%	—	4.69	21.5%	10.7%	192	-0.29	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	87
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	87
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	82
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	81
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	58	21.4%	10.9%	1.17	4.75
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04