Aidan Major
P
Hill City Howlers
Age 23
RHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%21.8%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Hill City Howlers | 9 | 8 | 31 | 127 | 29 | 16 | 2 | 89% | 3.4 | 16.0% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.90 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 93 | 387 | 86 | 46 | 10 | — | — | 22.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.80 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.57 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.57 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 56 | 331 | 1399 | 321 | 149 | 43 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 90 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 9 | 8 | 31 | 127 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 89% | 3.4 | 16.0% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.90 | 4.93 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 52 | 200 | 819 | 131 | 129 | 18 | 89% | 3.4 | 16.0% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.90 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Major (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.50 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 191 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 86 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 85 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 84 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 83 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 83 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 83 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 83 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 82 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 82 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 81 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 81 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 81 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 81 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 80 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.71 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.16 | 3.55 | 405 | 80 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 80 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 61 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 1.19 | 4.60 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |