Michael Carico

C Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 24 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#832ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ACHC	30	.227/.433/.409	1	0	84	—	.208/.367/.375
2026	23	A+/ACHC	322	.221/.438/.372	8	5	77	—	.167/.328/.279
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBCHC	372	.185/.319/.295	7	6	81	0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	25	MLBCHC	74	.190/.320/.304	1	1	83	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	26	MLBCHC	140	.193/.320/.310	3	2	84	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Hit20Power41Speed46Eye80

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAnthony Seigler (age 24) · Daniel Vellojin (age 24) · Zack Collins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .316 / .292

PA170

HR3

K%31

BB%15

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	22	5	1	0	1	6	7	2	0	0	227	433	409	842	182	286	23	20	391	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	99	73	12	4	0	1	25	32	1	2	0	164	384	260	644	96	275	32	25	320	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	223	158	39	7	0	7	60	60	3	3	1	247	462	424	886	177	344	27	27	405	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	24	5	1	0	1	4	10	2	0	0	208	367	375	742	167	255	33	13	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	99	80	10	3	0	1	18	41	1	2	0	125	293	200	493	75	238	41	18	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	223	178	33	5	0	6	40	82	3	3	1	185	344	315	658	129	284	37	18	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	24	5	1	0	1	4	10	2	0	0	208	367	375	742	167	308	33	13	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	22	5	1	0	1	6	7	2	0	0	227	433	409	842	182	286	23	20	391	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	259	43	9	0	6	57	122	4	5	1	166	325	270	595	104	278	38	18	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	322	231	51	11	0	8	85	92	4	5	1	221	438	372	810	152	323	29	26	379	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	24	5	1	0	1	4	10	2	0	0	208	367	375	742	167	255	33	13	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	258	43	9	0	6	57	122	4	5	1	167	325	271	596	105	270	38	18	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	24	5	1	0	1	4	10	2	0	0	208	367	375	742	167	255	33	13	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	258	43	9	0	6	57	122	4	5	1	167	325	271	596	105	270	38	18	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	372	309	58	11	2	7	56	114	4	6	2	185	319	295	614	110	264	31	15	288	81	-8	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	38%	197	164	32	6	1	4	29	59	2	3	1	189	319	303	622	114	266	30	15	291	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	252	210	41	8	1	5	37	75	3	4	1	192	319	308	628	116	267	30	15	292	84	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	61%	284	238	47	9	1	6	41	84	3	4	1	194	318	311	629	117	268	30	14	292	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	303	255	49	9	1	6	42	89	3	4	1	195	316	311	628	117	268	29	14	291	83	-6	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	305	257	50	9	1	6	42	89	3	4	1	195	314	310	623	115	268	29	14	289	82	-7	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	303	256	49	9	1	6	41	90	3	4	2	191	310	301	611	110	266	30	14	284	79	-8	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	276	235	44	8	1	5	37	83	2	3	2	187	305	291	596	104	262	30	13	278	75	-8	-0	-3	+5	+6	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	38%	74	62	11	2	0	1	11	22	1	1	0	190	320	304	625	114	269	30	15	291	83	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	140	118	23	4	1	3	20	42	1	2	1	193	320	310	630	116	270	30	14	293	84	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	61%	174	145	28	5	1	3	25	51	2	3	1	195	319	312	632	117	271	29	14	293	84	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	195	164	32	6	1	4	27	57	2	3	1	196	317	312	630	117	271	29	14	292	83	-4	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	196	165	33	6	1	4	27	57	2	3	1	196	315	311	626	115	271	29	14	290	82	-4	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	195	164	31	6	1	3	27	58	2	2	1	193	311	302	613	110	268	30	14	285	79	-5	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	178	150	28	5	1	3	24	53	2	2	1	188	306	292	598	104	265	30	13	279	75	-5	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1152	968	186	34	6	21	161	340	12	16	6	192	315	305	619	113	269	30	14	289	81	-26	+1	-5	+21	+25	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	546	105	19	3	12	91	192	7	9	3	192	315	304	619	112	270	30	14	289	81	-15	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2442	2038	387	73	8	48	356	753	27	34	11	190	318	304	622	114	271	31	15	287	81	-47	+2	-7	+37	+45	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	542	103	19	2	13	95	200	7	9	3	190	318	304	622	114	271	31	15	287	81	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 223 PAwOBA .398 → .301 (−97)K% 26.9% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.91%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	36.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.46%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	17.89%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.03%
Singles /BIP	25.51%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.980	21.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.980	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	5.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .398 → .301; ISO .177 → .140; BABIP .344 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 99 PAwOBA .314 → .238 (−76)K% 32.3% → 41.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.32%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	41.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.25%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	17.71%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.79%
Singles /BIP	17.07%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.988	15.52%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.988	7.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	1.93%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .314 → .238; ISO .096 → .075; BABIP .275 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 30 PAwOBA .382 → .293 (−89)K% 23.3% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.33%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	33.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	×0.990	12.35%
HBP% /PA	6.67%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	5.15%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.990	×0.920	—	×0.990	18.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.968	×0.830	—	×0.990	5.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷0.925	×0.800	—	×0.990	5.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .382 → .293; ISO .182 → .153; BABIP .286 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Charlie O'Brien'85-'00 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,560 PA	3.9	2,560	56	1	214*	295*	358*	+46	+0	5.0	5.6
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Duffy Dyer'68-'80 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,266 PA	3.4	2,266	30	10	218*	303*	339*	+39	-0	4.8	5.2
/162	664	9	3	+11.4	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 6
#6Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
/162	664	11	0	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.0	1,322	25	19	192	312	305	+24	+20	3.0	2.9
/162	664	13	9	+11.9	+10.0	1.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Carico (OGILVIE)	24	20	41	46	80	184/316/292	109	264	3	3	31%	15%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Zack Collins 2019 · AA	24	39→42	48→50	47→40	50	192/294/333	141	297	15	4	37%	12%	80	-0.1	210/305/364	154	309	17	4	34%	12%	91	+0.7	192/293/353	162	269	18	2	33%	12%	85	+0.1
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45	40	52→50	60	209/326/308	98	294	7	14	28%	14%	86	+0.3	210/308/299	89	309	4	9	29%	12%	77	-0.3	186/292/310	124	256	11	12	29%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Brian Jeroloman 2009 · AAA	24	50→39	40	46→40	60	235/335/328	93	296	7	2	21%	13%	93	+0.8	211/304/305	94	311	8	3	31%	11%	77	-0.3	199/299/269	69	295	6	4	31%	11%	64	-0.6
✕Greg Cullen 2022 · AA	25	46→44	42→40	43→40	51	220/312/326	106	290	9	4	26%	10%	85	+0.2	234/325/336	102	316	10	6	26%	11%	92	+0.7	234/334/325	91	316	9	5	26%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Conner Crumbliss 2011 · A	24	48	38→45	49→50	60	222/327/308	86	279	5	12	20%	13%	86	+0.3	221/321/322	101	276	8	15	21%	12%	87	+0.4	214/319/322	108	262	10	16	20%	12%	85	+0.2
✕Trevor Hauver 2023 · AA	24	39→49	49→50	46→40	52	197/302/348	151	285	17	3	34%	12%	86	+0.3	215/302/354	139	314	14	3	33%	10%	87	+0.4	220/306/357	138	316	13	2	32%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Michael Turconi 2024 · AA	25	47→46	43→45	51→50	52	225/312/342	117	299	9	7	26%	10%	88	+0.4	202/285/280	78	321	5	9	35%	10%	63	-1.3	181/268/228	47	308	2	9	38%	10%	44	-1.2
✕Andy Thomas 2023 · A	25	42→40	42→40	47→40	50	204/297/306	102	294	10	4	32%	11%	75	-0.5	204/276/298	94	277	9	5	28%	8%	65	-1.2	196/266/282	86	259	9	5	27%	8%	55	-1.5
✕Zach Britton 2023 · AA	24	40	45	50→45	47	191/295/317	125	304	12	10	37%	11%	78	-0.3	195/279/297	102	306	9	11	36%	9%	66	-1.1	160/226/231	70	264	7	10	39%	6%	28	-1.5
✕Pratt Maynard 2014 · A	24	44	41→45	45	50	214/281/308	94	263	8	6	22%	8%	68	-1.0	224/283/334	110	291	8	6	24%	8%	74	-0.5	230/280/355	125	304	6	0	25%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Sean Coughlin 2009 · A	24	38→37	46→50	44→30	46	198/269/329	131	247	14	2	26%	8%	70	-0.9	219/286/343	124	265	14	3	22%	8%	78	-0.3	221/290/340	119	260	14	1	20%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Carlos Soto 2022 · A	23	40	45	45→30	48	200/279/322	122	273	12	3	30%	9%	72	-0.7	197/273/311	114	289	10	5	33%	9%	66	-1.1	146/235/244	98	221	7	0	35%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Corey Joyce 2023 · AAA	24	44	46→40	49→50	49	214/312/344	129	290	14	11	29%	10%	89	+0.5	212/309/310	98	304	8	14	30%	10%	80	-0.1	207/293/299	92	288	9	15	29%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Will Toffey 2019 · AA	24	45	44→45	49→50	50	215/299/334	119	304	11	5	31%	10%	82	-0.0	205/293/319	114	313	10	9	34%	10%	76	-0.4	185/276/302	117	301	10	11	38%	9%	63	-0.7
✕Ty Hanchey 2024 · A	24	44	40→45	50→40	50	210/283/302	91	268	7	8	23%	9%	68	-1.0	213/283/312	99	296	9	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	207/277/307	100	297	10	3	32%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Casey Turgeon 2017 · AA	24	44	39→40	47→45	54	210/298/302	91	261	5	7	20%	10%	74	-0.6	208/287/304	96	270	9	8	24%	9%	70	-0.8	186/273/268	81	238	10	6	25%	9%	55	-1.1

Michael Carico

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps