Michael Carico — OGILVIE

Michael CaricoC Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION252 act + 168 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .319 / .309

PA168

HR4

K%34

BB%15

BABIP278

ISO122

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
Totals		$8M		$26M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	25	5	1	0	1	3	11	2	0	0	200	333	360	693	160	308	37	10	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	22	5	1	0	1	6	7	2	0	0	227	433	409	842	182	286	23	20	391	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	CHC	—	252	201	35	6	0	6	46	103	3	4	1	174	336	294	630	119	309	41	18	294	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
YTD	23	A	CHC	—	252	175	40	7	0	7	72	73	3	4	1	229	460	389	849	160	340	29	29	395	160	+17	+0	+0	+4	+7	3.0
ROS	23	A	CHC	0%	168	139	26	5	0	4	25	57	2	3	1	187	319	309	629	122	280	34	15	295	84	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
ROS	23	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		281	—	—	288	78	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	CHC	—	252	202	35	6	0	6	46	103	3	4	1	173	336	292	628	119	305	41	18	294	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
TOT	23	A	CHC	—	420	340	61	11	0	10	71	160	5	7	2	179	329	300	629	121	295	38	17	294	83	-8	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	312	261	52	9	1	8	44	102	4	5	1	199	324	333	657	134	284	33	14	301	88	-4	+1	+0	+6	+9	1.1
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	372	313	63	11	1	10	52	119	4	6	2	201	322	339	661	137	285	32	14	304	91	-4	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.4
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	408	344	70	12	1	11	56	129	5	7	2	203	323	340	664	137	285	32	14	307	93	-3	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.6
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	419	354	73	13	1	12	57	131	5	8	2	206	325	350	675	144	285	31	14	307	93	-3	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.7
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	423	357	73	13	1	12	58	133	5	8	2	204	324	347	671	143	285	31	14	306	92	-4	+1	-1	+8	+12	1.6
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	418	352	70	12	1	11	58	132	5	7	2	199	320	332	653	134	283	32	14	304	91	-4	+1	-1	+7	+12	1.5
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	413	348	70	12	1	11	57	132	5	7	2	201	322	336	658	135	282	32	14	301	89	-5	+1	-2	+7	+12	1.3
2034	31	MLB	CHC	65%	388	328	64	11	1	10	53	125	4	6	2	195	314	326	641	131	279	32	14	297	86	-6	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.9
2035	32	MLB	CHC	65%	359	303	59	10	1	9	49	117	4	6	2	195	315	323	638	129	275	33	14	292	82	-7	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.6
2036	33	MLB	CHC	70%	321	271	51	8	1	8	44	106	3	5	1	188	308	314	622	125	271	33	14	286	77	-8	+1	-4	+6	+9	0.3
2037	34	MLB	CHC	66%	272	230	41	6	1	6	37	92	3	4	1	178	300	291	591	113	265	34	14	278	71	-9	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.1
2038	35	MLB	CHC	61%	218	184	33	5	1	5	30	75	2	3	1	179	301	299	600	120	258	34	14	269	64	-9	+0	-6	+4	+6	-0.4
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	118	99	19	3	0	3	17	39	1	2	1	192	316	313	629	121	285	33	14	294	83	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	206	173	36	6	1	6	29	66	2	4	1	208	328	358	687	150	286	32	14	297	86	-3	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	260	220	45	8	1	7	35	82	3	5	1	205	322	345	667	141	287	32	13	300	87	-4	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.9
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	275	233	48	8	1	8	37	86	3	5	1	206	322	352	674	146	287	31	13	300	88	-4	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	282	238	49	8	1	8	39	89	3	5	1	206	325	349	674	143	286	32	14	299	87	-4	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.9
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	275	232	48	8	1	8	38	87	3	5	1	207	326	353	679	147	285	32	14	297	86	-4	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.8
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	269	227	46	8	1	7	37	86	3	5	1	203	322	339	661	137	283	32	14	294	84	-5	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2034	31	MLB	CHC	65%	251	211	43	7	1	7	35	81	3	4	1	204	325	346	671	142	280	32	14	291	81	-6	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.5
2035	32	MLB	CHC	65%	232	196	38	6	1	6	32	76	2	4	1	194	313	327	640	133	277	33	14	285	77	-6	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.3
2036	33	MLB	CHC	70%	225	190	36	6	1	5	31	75	2	3	1	189	309	311	620	121	272	33	14	279	72	-7	+0	-3	+4	+6	0.0
2037	34	MLB	CHC	66%	178	150	27	4	0	4	24	60	2	3	1	180	301	287	588	107	266	34	13	271	66	-7	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	CHC	61%	133	113	20	3	0	3	18	46	1	2	0	177	295	283	579	106	260	35	14	263	59	-6	+0	-3	+2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2704	2283	455	75	9	72	372	873	28	47	11	199	319	335	653	135	284	32	14	291	81	-58	+5	-16	+48	+77	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	549	109	18	2	17	89	210	7	11	3	199	318	332	649	133	283	32	14	291	81	-14	+1	-4	+12	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	4521	3809	750	128	12	118	623	1461	53	75	21	197	318	330	648	133	281	32	14	298	86	-71	+7	-25	+81	+128	12.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	108	18	2	17	90	210	8	11	3	197	319	330	650	133	281	32	14	298	86	-10	+1	-4	+12	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	30	22	5	1	0	1	6	7	2	0	0	227	433	409	842	182	286	23	20	391	158	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	8	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
	/162	664	14	9	225	325	344	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	2,823	73	48	198	315	331	+46	+32	8.4	7.6
	/162	664	17	11	198	315	331	+10.7	+7.5	2.0	pk7: 7
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Carico (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	47→52	45→50	80	179/329/300	121	295	10	7	38%	17%	83	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	40→39	42→50	46→55	56	195/303/310	115	269	9	11	28%	13%	76	+0.0	199/299/319	120	254	11	20	24%	12%	76	+0.0	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	46→45	42→45	52	198/293/324	126	277	14	6	32%	12%	75	-0.0	179/260/273	94	259	9	6	32%	9%	47	-1.9	150/237/225	75	215	8	4	32%	9%	24	-1.2
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	86	+0.8	217/296/385	168	279	20	10	28%	9%	92	+1.2	213/294/385	172	258	21	8	26%	9%	88	+0.7
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→38	46→50	48→45	53	208/301/343	135	264	13	11	25%	11%	82	+0.5	198/289/339	141	285	14	8	33%	10%	77	+0.1	175/277/324	148	244	17	6	34%	11%	65	-0.5
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	44	48→60	51→45	44	220/290/372	152	284	15	6	27%	7%	85	+0.7	225/286/339	114	297	8	7	26%	6%	74	-0.1	224/283/416	193	281	26	5	30%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	37→41	48→45	50→45	49	193/307/330	137	261	17	7	31%	10%	84	+0.6	184/294/281	97	261	9	5	30%	10%	66	-0.6	174/315/272	98	251	9	3	30%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Reese Havens 2010 · A	23	42→40	48→45	44→40	49	215/301/355	139	265	15	5	24%	9%	85	+0.7	220/295/364	144	303	16	4	31%	9%	85	+0.7	205/284/345	140	300	17	2	35%	9%	72	-0.1
✕Trevor Hauver 2023 · AA	24	40→48	49→50	46→40	53	199/309/350	151	292	17	3	35%	13%	89	+0.9	217/305/367	150	319	15	3	33%	11%	90	+1.0	220/308/374	154	316	15	2	32%	10%	90	+0.8
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Logan Vick 2014 · A	23	48	41→45	52→50	56	225/323/333	108	304	7	15	26%	12%	89	+0.9	193/286/291	98	295	7	13	33%	11%	63	-0.8	143/250/225	82	230	6	13	36%	12%	30	-2.1
✕Ryan Costello 2019 · A	23	42→39	50	42→30	47	216/285/369	154	277	17	4	28%	9%	82	+0.5	201/276/334	133	299	14	4	35%	9%	69	-0.4	168/256/295	127	261	14	0	39%	10%	50	-1.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Carlos Soto 2022 · A	23	40	46→50	45→30	47	200/276/328	128	267	13	3	29%	9%	68	-0.5	198/272/313	115	288	10	5	32%	9%	63	-0.9	146/236/243	98	222	7	0	35%	10%	29	-1.0
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→39	47→50	43→30	48	212/291/346	133	289	14	4	30%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/349	145	281	18	3	32%	10%	79	+0.3	185/276/320	135	253	18	0	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→42	44→50	50→40	49	214/303/331	117	278	11	7	26%	9%	81	+0.4	223/308/361	138	300	15	5	29%	8%	91	+1.1	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Zack Collins 2019 · AA	24	37→43	48→50	47→40	50	183/287/322	139	289	15	4	39%	12%	72	-0.2	201/296/347	146	302	16	4	35%	11%	82	+0.5	184/283/338	154	262	17	2	34%	11%	73	-0.1
✕Kody Clemens 2019 · A	23	46→44	44→60	50→45	44	225/283/343	119	292	11	8	26%	7%	74	-0.1	200/260/333	133	271	13	8	30%	7%	62	-0.9	227/284/442	214	256	27	8	24%	6%	98	+1.0