Payton Tolle

P Boston Red Sox

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 4.1 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX4 levels	27	21	108	3.50	2.95	34.7%	7.1%	2.6	K 28.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.71
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	29	164	3.02	2.84	28.6%	6.5%	4.3	K 28.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	23	23	131	3.28	3.37	29.3%	6.4%	2.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBBOS	27	27	159	3.26	3.27	29.7%	6.2%	3.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBBOS	28	28	166	3.25	3.25	29.9%	6.2%	3.3

Last 2 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 8.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service2.000First FA2032Options1Super-2

2027Arb-1$5M2028Arb-2$9M2029Arb-3$17M2030Arb-4$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%84

FB Velo72

Whiff%67

CompsShane McClanahan (age 24) · Reid Detmers (age 24) · Eduardo Rodriguez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7079vR 87

ERA3.28

FIP3.37

K%29.3%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%22.9%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.255

SL+1.2 (5%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.1 (20%)

CH-1.3 (7%)

FB-2.6 (64%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$5M	+2.5	$20M	+$15M
2028	Arb-2	$9M	+3.1	$26M	+$18M
2029	Arb-3	$17M	+3.3	$27M	+$13M
2030	Arb-4	$25M	+3.2	$24M	+$6M
Totals		$56M		$98M	+$52M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$28.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.4%	7.7%	20.7%	3.7%	3.50	3.71	+1.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.4%	7.7%	20.7%	3.7%	3.50	3.71	+1.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	34.7%	7.1%	27.6%	3.4%	3.50	2.95	+2.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.2%	6.4%	21.8%	2.5%	3.02	2.89	+4.1
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.2%	6.4%	21.8%	2.5%	3.02	2.89	+4.1
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.6%	6.5%	22.1%	2.4%	3.02	2.84	+4.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	29	165	677	190	47	20	88%	5.0	28.1%	6.9%	21.1%	3.0%	3.33	3.23	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	23	23	131	553	162	35	16	100%	5.7	29.3%	6.4%	22.9%	2.8%	3.28	3.37	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	167	706	209	44	20	100%	5.8	29.7%	6.2%	23.4%	2.8%	3.30	3.31	+3.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	175	739	221	46	21	100%	6.0	29.9%	6.2%	23.7%	2.8%	3.29	3.29	+3.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	172	728	218	46	21	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.3%	23.6%	2.9%	3.31	3.32	+3.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	172	728	217	47	22	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.4%	23.3%	3.0%	3.37	3.41	+3.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	165	695	203	46	22	100%	6.1	29.2%	6.7%	22.5%	3.1%	3.49	3.57	+2.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	26	26	155	653	186	46	22	100%	5.9	28.5%	7.0%	21.5%	3.3%	3.66	3.78	+2.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	144	609	169	45	22	100%	6.0	27.7%	7.3%	20.4%	3.5%	3.87	4.01	+1.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	134	564	152	44	21	100%	6.1	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	3.8%	4.11	4.26	+1.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	122	517	135	42	21	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	4.1%	4.37	4.54	+0.5
2037	34	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	471	119	41	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	4.4%	4.66	4.85	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	159	671	199	42	18	100%	5.9	29.7%	6.2%	23.4%	2.7%	3.26	3.27	+3.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	166	701	210	44	19	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.2%	23.7%	2.7%	3.25	3.25	+3.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	164	692	207	44	19	100%	6.1	29.9%	6.3%	23.6%	2.8%	3.27	3.28	+3.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	164	692	206	45	20	100%	6.1	29.8%	6.4%	23.3%	2.9%	3.33	3.37	+3.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	156	659	192	44	20	100%	6.0	29.2%	6.7%	22.5%	3.0%	3.45	3.53	+2.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	147	621	177	43	20	100%	6.1	28.5%	7.0%	21.5%	3.2%	3.61	3.73	+2.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	137	578	160	42	20	100%	6.0	27.7%	7.3%	20.4%	3.4%	3.82	3.96	+1.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	127	536	144	41	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	3.7%	4.06	4.21	+1.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	116	490	128	40	19	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	4.0%	4.31	4.48	+0.5
2037	34	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	101	426	107	37	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	4.3%	4.60	4.79	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		273	269	1602	6745	1921	469	214	99%	5.9	28.5%	6.9%	21.5%	3.2%	3.60	3.32	+31.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	842	240	59	27	99%	5.9	28.5%	6.9%	21.5%	3.2%	3.60	3.32	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		56	50	272	1102	312	76	33	89%	4.9	28.3%	6.9%	21.4%	3.0%	3.21	3.22	+24.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	811	230	56	24	89%	4.9	28.3%	6.9%	21.4%	3.0%	3.21	3.22	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Tolle (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.37	29.3%	6.4%	2.8%	—	3.31	29.8%	23.6%	514	-0.06	—	—	—
Shane McClanahan L 2021 · 3.23 FIP	24	SP	3.23	27.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.326	3.31	28.5%	21.5%	281	+0.08	2.95	643	76
Reid Detmers L 2023 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	26.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.306	3.68	28.0%	20.5%	414	+0.05	2.77	766	72
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.4%	3.4%	.294	3.60	25.4%	17.1%	333	-0.23	3.25	1,596	71
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	70
Robbie Ray L 2016 · 3.50 FIP	24	SP	3.50	28.1%	8.6%	3.1%	.345	3.92	31.9%	20.9%	460	+0.42	3.17	1,645	69
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	69
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	68
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	67
Brendan McKay L 2019 · 2.90 FIP	23	SP	2.90	28.6%	7.2%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	213	65
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	65
Jesús Luzardo L 2022 · 3.12 FIP	24	SP	3.12	30.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.251	3.23	27.2%	19.7%	429	+0.11	2.42	1,058	64
Ryan Hartman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	24	SP-	3.24	24.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.312	5.39	19.3%	11.7%	215	+2.15	3.24	456	64
Andrew Abbott L 2023 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	29.2%	8.9%	3.5%	.291	4.28	19.8%	11.3%	470	+0.61	3.36	752	64
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.28	18.8%	9.8%	354	+0.12	4.03	620	64
Blake Snell L 2017 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	23.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.295	3.19	32.0%	23.2%	338	-0.74	1.59	1,456	63
Dylan Dodd L 2022 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	20.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.323	4.83	17.9%	11.8%	277	+1.52	3.31	475	63
Nick Lodolo L 2022 · 3.21 FIP	24	SP	3.21	29.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.298	3.47	24.9%	19.1%	306	+0.26	1.54	562	62
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	62
Eric Lauer L 2019 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	21.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.309	4.17	23.7%	14.8%	288	+0.30	3.74	1,097	61
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.1	151	28.5%	6.9%	1.25	3.62
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Harvey Haddix ('52-'65, 34 WAR*)	11.2	160	25.7%*	6.3%*	1.17*	3.93*
Johnny Allen ('32-'44, 31 WAR*)	9.8	150	29.2%*	8.0%*	0.94*	3.77*
Virgil Trucks ('41-'58, 45 WAR*)	13.4	179	25.8%*	8.1%*	1.12*	3.65*
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82