Braden Davis
P
Springfield Cardinals
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.9 · 2029
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.2%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%10.7%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2029
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 25 | 22 | 110 | 453 | 153 | 75 | 4 | 25.3% | 19.4% | 1.2% | 2.85 | 4.06 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 3 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 28.9% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.25 | 8.03 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 113 | 63 | 12 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 122 | 522 | 133 | 69 | 17 | 25.5% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 545 | 134 | 65 | 14 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 603 | 149 | 66 | 16 | 24.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 150 | 632 | 157 | 68 | 16 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 153 | 644 | 159 | 69 | 17 | 24.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 159 | 69 | 17 | 24.7% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 149 | 629 | 154 | 68 | 17 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 149 | 66 | 17 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 139 | 588 | 142 | 65 | 17 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 135 | 63 | 16 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 128 | 539 | 127 | 61 | 16 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 119 | 59 | 16 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 110 | 57 | 15 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 101 | 54 | 15 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 25 | 122 | 509 | 131 | 94 | 11 | 25.7% | 18.5% | 2.2% | 3.38 | 4.50 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 832 | 214 | 154 | 18 | 25.7% | 18.5% | 2.2% | 3.38 | 4.50 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braden Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.22 | 24.7% | 13.6% | 422 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 91 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 91 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 90 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 89 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 87 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 87 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 85 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 85 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 85 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 85 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 85 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 84 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 84 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 84 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.15 | 3.49 | 432 | 84 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 83 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 83 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.8 | $17M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.6 | $16M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.4 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $19M | $98M | +$80M | ||