Braden Davis

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1020ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	22	110	2.85	2.84	33.8%	16.6%	—	K 25.3% · BB 19.4% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	AASTL	26	26	110	5.15	4.38	28.3%	14.4%	—	K 23.0% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	1	3	5.37	5.37	23.4%	16.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	46	5.00	4.91	23.6%	14.5%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSTL	10	10	63	4.88	4.83	23.7%	14.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 72%

CompsShane Drohan (age 24) · Dylan Carmouche (age 22) · Christian MacLeod (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%23.4%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	25.3%	19.4%	5.9%	1.2%	2.85	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	25.3%	19.4%	5.9%	1.2%	2.85	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	33.8%	16.6%	17.2%	0.9%	2.85	2.84	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	23.0%	15.8%	7.1%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	23.0%	15.8%	7.1%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	28.3%	14.4%	14.0%	3.2%	5.15	4.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.4%	16.9%	6.5%	3.1%	5.37	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	104	440	104	64	14	100%	5.8	23.6%	14.5%	9.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.03	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	399	95	56	12	100%	5.9	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	3.1%	5.00	4.95	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	378	89	52	12	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.96	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	84	357	84	49	12	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.7%	9.7%	3.2%	4.99	5.02	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	78	331	77	46	11	100%	6.0	23.2%	13.9%	9.2%	3.4%	5.09	5.15	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	71	300	68	43	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	3.6%	5.23	5.33	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	46	28	6	100%	5.8	23.6%	14.5%	9.1%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	63	266	63	37	8	100%	6.3	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.9%	4.88	4.83	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	69	291	69	40	9	100%	5.8	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	70	41	9	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.7%	9.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.90	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	69	291	68	41	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	13.9%	9.2%	3.2%	4.96	5.02	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	64	270	62	38	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	3.3%	5.09	5.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	382	1613	377	225	49	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.93	4.57	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	118	26	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.93	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		51	48	220	947	228	166	25	94%	4.3	24.1%	17.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.71	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	860	207	151	22	94%	4.3	24.1%	17.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.71	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 110 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.30 (+0.99)K% 28.3% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.34%	—	×0.810	22.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.37%	—	×1.100	15.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 74 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.50 (+1.38)K% 33.9% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.88%	—	×0.740	25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.11%	—	×1.180	20.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.973	×1.300	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 37 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.17 (+0.95)K% 33.6% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.56%	—	×0.770	25.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.44%	—	×1.150	17.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.857	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.98	23.6%	9.6%	288	-0.39	—	—	—
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	78
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	76
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	75
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	73
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	73
Brandon Williamson L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	24	SP	4.36	18.6%	15.0%	1.7%	.304	4.76	18.7%	10.0%	165	+0.40	3.62	454	73
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	73
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.52	18.7%	9.1%	417	-0.73	4.36	676	72
Kyle Carr L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.47	18.6%	7.1%	223	+0.23	4.19	327	71
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	71
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	71
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	70
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	70
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	70
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	70
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	69
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	69
Zach King L 2022 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	21.1%	12.9%	3.0%	.338	5.02	14.1%	1.1%	72	+0.39	3.31	278	69
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	93	23.4%	14.6%	1.25	5.12
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70