Braden Davis — OGILVIE

Braden Davis P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 131

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%25.2%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	25.3%	19.4%	5.9%	1.2%	2.85	4.08	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	33.8%	16.6%	17.2%	0.9%	2.85	2.84	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	17	17	73	324	86	46	10	100%	4.3	21.5%	15.6%	5.9%	3.7%	4.68	5.30	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	STL	12	12	65	274	69	48	7	100%	5.4	25.2%	17.4%	7.7%	2.5%	4.96	4.96	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	STL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.2%	17.4%	7.7%	2.5%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	STL	—	—	138	598	155	94	17	—	—	25.9%	15.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.81	5.14	+0.4
2026 FULL	23	MLB	STL	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	25.2%	17.4%	7.7%	2.5%	4.96	4.58	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	STL	24	24	134	564	143	83	14	100%	5.6	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	2.6%	4.72	4.62	+1.2
2028	25	MLB	STL	23	23	135	571	146	75	15	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.1%	12.4%	2.6%	4.52	4.40	+1.6
2029	26	MLB	STL	23	23	135	571	146	73	15	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.8%	12.8%	2.6%	4.43	4.37	+1.6
2030	27	MLB	STL	22	22	133	563	143	72	15	100%	6.1	25.4%	12.7%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.41	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	STL	22	22	129	546	138	70	15	100%	5.9	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.49	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	STL	21	21	124	521	131	68	15	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.62	+1.1
2033	30	MLB	STL	19	19	116	490	121	66	15	100%	6.1	24.7%	13.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.70	4.80	+0.8
2034	31	MLB	STL	18	18	108	457	111	63	15	100%	6.0	24.3%	13.8%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	5.00	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	STL	17	17	100	423	101	60	15	100%	5.9	23.9%	14.2%	9.7%	3.6%	5.09	5.22	+0.2
2027	24	MLB	STL	11	11	59	249	63	37	6	100%	5.4	25.4%	14.8%	10.6%	2.6%	4.72	4.62	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	STL	15	15	90	380	97	50	10	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.4%	2.6%	4.52	4.40	+0.8
2029	26	MLB	STL	18	18	108	456	117	58	12	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.8%	12.8%	2.6%	4.43	4.37	+1.3
2030	27	MLB	STL	19	19	114	481	122	61	13	100%	6.0	25.4%	12.7%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.41	+1.3
2031	28	MLB	STL	19	19	115	486	123	63	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.49	+1.2
2032	29	MLB	STL	19	19	112	473	119	62	14	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.62	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	STL	18	18	107	452	112	61	14	100%	5.9	24.7%	13.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.70	4.80	+0.8
2034	31	MLB	STL	17	17	101	426	104	59	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	13.8%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	5.00	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	STL	16	16	94	397	95	56	14	100%	5.9	23.9%	14.2%	9.7%	3.6%	5.09	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			151	151	901	3805	953	507	110	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.27	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	211	113	24	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.27	+2.7
Career	—			42	39	183	777	184	138	17	93%	4.4	23.7%	17.8%	5.9%	2.3%	3.58	4.59	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—			46	43	200	848	201	151	19	93%	4.4	23.7%	17.8%	5.9%	2.3%	3.58	4.59	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	25.2%	17.4%	2.5%	—	4.46	25.5%	11.9%	404	-0.50	—	—	—
Xavier Rivas L 2026 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	23.2%	16.4%	3.0%	.229	5.34	28.7%	15.4%	64	+0.47	4.87	150	82
Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	80
Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.61 FIP	23	SP	5.61	21.9%	16.9%	4.0%	.304	4.79	20.5%	8.0%	253	-0.82	4.20	458	80
Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.5%	13.9%	1.6%	.275	3.80	20.7%	7.5%	141	-0.20	3.73	245	79
Cade Povich L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	25.9%	12.9%	3.1%	.298	4.17	22.5%	13.8%	330	-0.07	3.77	571	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	75
Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	28.7%	12.5%	3.1%	.279	4.19	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.22	3.42	432	75
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	75
Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	18.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.321	3.96	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.20	3.85	269	74
Luis De La Torre L 2025 · 5.47 FIP	22	SP	5.47	22.7%	20.1%	3.2%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	173	73
Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	73
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP	4.60	20.6%	10.9%	3.4%	.269	5.90	20.7%	8.4%	87	+1.30	4.60	308	73
Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	72
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.0%	10.7%	2.5%	.297	6.60	15.1%	4.8%	51	+2.54	4.06	248	72
Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.65	17.8%	1.7%	139	+0.16	4.12	234	72
Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	72
Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	71
Mason Montgomery L 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.9%	12.2%	3.8%	.272	4.18	27.4%	16.8%	171	-0.67	2.91	419	71
Tommy Henry L 2027 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP	4.80	22.2%	11.8%	3.8%	.327	4.46	18.9%	8.8%	417	-0.34	4.33	629	71
Luke Fox L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	20.5%	14.1%	2.1%	.269	2.79	26.2%	18.5%	20	-1.54	2.79	148	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	125	25.1%	13.8%	1.10	4.66
Patrick Sandoval ('24)	6	89	22.7%	10.1%	0.92	4.01
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	5	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Francisco Liriano ('19)	5	130	22.3%	11.2%	1.09	4.30
Touki Toussaint ('24)	7	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyson Ross ('19)	4	107	21.3%	10.8%	0.84	4.31