Braden Davis — OGILVIE

Braden Davis P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%25.2%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	25.3%	19.4%	5.9%	1.2%	2.85	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	25.3%	19.4%	5.9%	1.2%	2.85	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	110	453	153	75	4	88%	4.4	33.8%	16.6%	17.2%	0.9%	2.85	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	23.0%	15.8%	7.1%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	23.0%	15.8%	7.1%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	26	26	110	494	140	71	16	100%	4.2	28.3%	14.4%	14.0%	3.2%	5.15	4.31	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	11	46	12	9	1	100%	5.5	25.2%	18.9%	6.2%	2.5%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	121	540	152	80	17	—	—	28.1%	14.8%	13.3%	3.2%	5.15	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	134	564	143	90	14	100%	5.6	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	2.6%	4.87	4.75	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	135	571	146	80	15	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.9%	11.6%	2.6%	4.64	4.50	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	135	571	146	78	15	100%	5.9	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.6%	4.53	4.47	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	133	563	143	76	15	100%	6.1	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	2.7%	4.51	4.50	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	129	546	138	75	15	100%	5.9	25.3%	13.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.58	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	124	521	131	72	15	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.71	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	490	121	70	15	100%	6.1	24.7%	14.2%	10.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.89	+0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	457	111	66	15	100%	6.0	24.3%	14.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.98	5.09	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	59	249	63	40	6	100%	5.4	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	2.4%	4.77	4.65	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	97	53	9	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.9%	11.6%	2.4%	4.54	4.40	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	108	456	117	62	11	100%	6.0	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.4%	4.43	4.37	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	114	481	122	65	12	100%	6.0	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	2.5%	4.41	4.40	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	115	486	123	66	12	100%	6.1	25.3%	13.7%	11.7%	2.6%	4.44	4.47	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	112	473	119	66	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.54	4.60	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	107	452	112	64	13	100%	5.9	24.7%	14.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	101	426	104	62	13	100%	5.9	24.3%	14.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.85	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	806	3404	857	478	89	100%	6.0	25.2%	14.0%	11.1%	2.6%	4.57	4.19	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	213	119	22	100%	6.0	25.2%	14.0%	11.1%	2.6%	4.57	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		51	48	220	947	228	166	25	94%	4.3	24.1%	17.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.71	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	860	207	151	22	94%	4.3	24.1%	17.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.71	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	25.2%	18.9%	2.5%	—	4.57	25.5%	11.0%	404	-0.58	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	86
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	81
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	74
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	72
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	72
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	71
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	71
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	71
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	70
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	70
Maddux Bruns L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	21	SP	4.67	22.3%	18.0%	2.1%	.261	4.55	18.6%	-1.9%	93	-0.12	3.50	235	70
Tyler Pike L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	19.5%	15.7%	1.1%	.298	5.77	18.5%	-11.0%	31	+1.75	3.41	565	70
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	69
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	69
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	69
Connor Bach L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SP-	4.48	16.4%	17.0%	1.1%	.304	5.82	18.5%	-9.3%	14	+1.34	4.48	124	69
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	69
Kyle Muller L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	23.8%	12.6%	2.4%	.272	4.65	19.4%	11.0%	361	+0.65	2.84	804	68
Mitchell Parker L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	22.7%	12.2%	2.6%	.325	4.37	17.6%	10.4%	369	+0.22	3.73	694	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	127	25.2%	14.7%	1.07	4.74
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67