Zach King
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 228 lbs
A+
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 6 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 50% | 2.7 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 1.65 | 3.31 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 6 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 50% | 2.7 | 27.4% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.65 | 2.30 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | 16 | 16 | 78 | 358 | 79 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.88 | 5.31 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | 16 | 16 | 78 | 358 | 79 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 5.88 | 4.68 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 111 | 495 | 133 | 57 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 4.71 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 111 | 495 | 133 | 57 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.9% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 2.4% | 5.03 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 16 | 79 | 382 | 74 | 52 | 7 | 64% | 3.1 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 6.75 | 5.45 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 16 | 79 | 382 | 74 | 52 | 7 | 64% | 3.1 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 6.75 | 4.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 202 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 6 | 37 | 157 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.29 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 86 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 58 | 284 | 1297 | 231 | 161 | 44 | 83% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.55 | 5.03 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 41 | 200 | 913 | 162 | 113 | 31 | 83% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.55 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach King (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.65 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 93 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 74 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 73 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 71 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 71 |
| John Lamb L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 70 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 69 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 69 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 68 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 67 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 67 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 67 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 67 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 66 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 66 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 66 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 66 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 66 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 1.23 | 4.54 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |