Chase Heath — OGILVIE

Chase HeathC Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION315 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP258

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	165	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	48	11	1	0	3	9	17	1	2	0	229	362	438	800	208	280	29	16	334	112	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	48	11	1	0	3	9	17	1	2	0	229	362	438	800	208	286	29	16	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	48	11	1	0	3	9	17	1	2	0	229	362	438	800	208	280	29	16	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	48	11	1	0	3	9	17	1	2	0	229	362	438	800	208	280	29	16	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	STL	—	315	285	46	11	0	5	24	109	5	7	4	161	239	253	491	91	238	35	8	219	34	-25	-0	+0	+6	+7	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	STL	—	294	257	52	13	0	6	31	71	5	6	4	202	300	323	623	121	254	24	11	287	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	STL	—	21	20	5	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	250	286	250	536		385	33	5	249	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	STL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		259	33	11	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	STL	—	324	293	47	11	0	5	25	112	5	7	4	160	238	249	488	89	237	35	8	220	35	-25	-0	+0	+6	+7	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	38%	310	277	54	11	1	7	26	93	4	5	2	195	274	318	591	123	263	30	8	268	68	-12	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	55%	370	330	66	13	1	9	32	108	5	6	2	200	281	327	608	127	265	29	9	274	72	-12	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	64%	407	364	74	15	1	10	35	118	5	6	2	203	282	332	615	129	267	29	9	278	74	-13	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	66%	419	374	75	15	1	10	37	121	5	6	2	201	281	326	607	126	267	29	9	279	75	-13	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	67%	424	379	76	15	1	10	37	123	5	6	2	201	280	325	605	124	266	29	9	278	74	-13	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	66%	419	374	75	15	1	10	37	122	5	6	2	201	281	326	607	126	266	29	9	276	73	-14	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	65%	414	369	73	14	1	10	37	122	5	5	2	198	280	322	602	125	264	29	9	273	71	-14	+0	-2	+7	+9	0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	38%	117	104	19	4	0	2	10	35	2	2	1	183	267	279	546	96	262	30	9	256	68	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	55%	205	182	36	7	1	4	18	60	3	3	1	198	281	313	594	115	264	29	9	261	72	-7	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	64%	259	232	46	9	1	6	22	75	3	4	1	198	276	323	600	125	266	29	8	264	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	66%	275	245	49	10	1	6	24	79	4	4	2	200	282	322	605	122	266	29	9	266	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	67%	283	252	50	10	1	6	25	82	4	4	2	198	281	317	599	119	266	29	9	265	74	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	66%	275	246	49	10	1	6	24	80	3	4	1	199	278	321	600	122	265	29	9	263	73	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	65%	270	241	47	9	1	6	24	79	3	3	1	195	276	315	591	120	263	29	9	260	71	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1684	1502	296	59	6	36	147	490	22	24	9	197	278	316	595	119	264	29	9	263	73	-55	+1	-3	+30	+36	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	114	23	2	14	57	189	8	9	3	197	278	316	593	119	263	29	9	263	73	-21	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2830	2523	505	99	7	69	251	827	35	42	14	200	282	327	609	127	266	29	9	277	73	-91	+2	-4	+50	+60	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	117	23	2	16	58	190	8	10	3	202	284	332	615	130	269	29	9	277	73	-21	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,824	43	27	202	280	329	+33	+20	2.7	2.6
/162	664	16	10	+11.9	+7.3	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Heath (OGILVIE)	23	27→32	42→47	47→52	58	187/266/299	112	259	3	3	31%	8%	62	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	208/299/335	127	266	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	198/288/331	133	281	13	8	31%	10%	77	-0.3	175/276/313	138	241	16	6	32%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→37	49→50	53→50	39	207/268/353	146	287	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.5	208/273/341	133	295	14	10	33%	6%	74	-0.6	202/274/346	144	284	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→38	43→50	45→30	45	204/279/315	111	288	11	4	31%	9%	70	-0.9	217/292/358	141	289	16	3	29%	9%	84	+0.2	217/296/371	154	282	18	1	28%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	42	204/265/335	132	265	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	214/269/319	105	302	10	5	31%	6%	66	-1.1	199/250/262	63	298	6	0	34%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→40	47→50	43→30	48	216/294/353	138	287	15	4	29%	9%	84	+0.2	203/288/334	131	275	15	3	30%	10%	78	-0.3	186/276/303	117	251	14	0	30%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	204/268/326	123	280	11	10	30%	7%	68	-1.0	194/266/335	141	268	16	7	32%	8%	70	-0.9	216/279/422	206	274	28	2	32%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	36→32	50→55	49→40	48	188/277/339	151	269	18	5	35%	10%	75	-0.5	188/268/335	147	296	18	4	39%	9%	71	-0.8	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→36	49→45	51→50	40	206/276/359	153	273	16	9	30%	6%	79	-0.2	209/284/321	112	285	10	10	29%	6%	74	-0.6	205/292/288	83	272	7	10	25%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→48	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	204/281/333	129	269	13	9	28%	7%	75	-0.5	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	38	45→50	47→30	44	190/278/314	124	278	13	2	34%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/328	131	280	15	3	33%	8%	71	-0.8	180/256/302	122	254	15	0	34%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Scott Manea 2019 · A	23	43→42	46→45	46→30	43	218/292/349	131	266	13	3	23%	6%	83	+0.1	212/292/340	128	277	15	3	28%	7%	81	-0.1	189/280/292	103	266	12	0	31%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→37	41→50	49→45	42	208/284/313	105	305	8	7	32%	7%	71	-0.8	197/291/331	134	305	14	5	37%	10%	79	-0.2	181/287/328	147	281	17	4	38%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Dustin Garneau 2012 · A	24	38→39	47→50	44→45	47	195/268/338	143	238	14	6	24%	8%	71	-0.8	201/268/329	128	232	13	5	19%	7%	69	-0.9	171/262/344	173	215	21	1	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/349	122	287	12	8	25%	6%	76	-0.4	217/284/360	143	275	18	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	214/284/354	140	266	19	2	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	51→50	51→55	45	218/285/381	163	274	18	17	27%	7%	87	+0.4	175/249/292	117	254	14	21	35%	7%	54	-2.0	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Aramis Garcia 2016 · A	23	42→41	46→50	45	42	213/271/338	125	281	15	3	30%	7%	72	-0.7	215/261/345	130	289	15	3	30%	5%	70	-0.9	213/254/350	137	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Freuddy Batista 2023 · A	23	41	49→50	49→40	39	206/278/354	147	300	17	8	35%	7%	78	-0.3	208/263/340	132	299	13	4	34%	5%	69	-0.9	206/257/336	130	270	16	4	30%	4%	63	-0.6
✕Thomas Dillard 2021 · A	23	45→38	44→45	52→50	51	215/305/333	118	304	12	10	31%	11%	84	+0.1	196/283/318	122	326	13	9	40%	10%	72	-0.7	182/275/301	120	302	13	9	40%	10%	64	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps