Chase Heath

C Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ASTL	58	.267/.431/.489	3	2	105	—	.204/.328/.347
2026	23	AA/ASTL	315	.206/.299/.318	6	7	28	—	.150/.223/.223
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBSTL	365	.184/.255/.286	6	6	53	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBSTL	68	.187/.259/.291	1	1	56	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSTL	122	.190/.261/.297	2	2	59	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV80

Whiff%53

K%51

BB%43

Speed38

Z-Con%37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsGrae Kessinger (age 24) · Connor Kaiser (age 24) · Dylan Neuse (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 190 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .252 / .284

PA190

HR3

K%29

BB%8

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	21	20	5	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	250	286	250	536		385	33	5	249	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	294	257	52	13	0	6	31	71	5	6	4	202	300	323	623	121	254	24	11	287	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	49	10	1	0	2	8	16	1	2	0	204	328	347	675	143	273	28	14	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	1	0	200	238	200	438		363	43	5	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	294	267	39	9	0	4	21	96	5	6	4	146	222	225	447	79	212	33	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	49	10	1	0	2	8	16	1	2	0	204	328	347	675	143	258	28	14	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	287	44	9	0	4	22	105	5	7	4	153	226	226	453	73	223	33	7	209	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	315	277	57	13	0	6	32	78	5	7	4	206	299	318	617	112	263	25	10	284	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	49	10	1	0	2	8	16	1	2	0	204	328	347	675	143	273	28	14	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	285	44	9	0	4	22	105	5	7	4	154	226	228	454	74	222	33	7	209	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	49	10	1	0	2	8	16	1	2	0	204	328	347	675	143	273	28	14	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	285	44	9	0	4	22	105	5	7	4	154	226	228	454	74	222	33	7	209	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	0%	365	330	60	11	2	6	28	106	4	6	2	184	255	286	541	103	245	29	8	247	53	-20	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	30%	226	205	38	7	1	4	17	65	2	4	1	187	258	294	552	107	248	29	8	252	56	-12	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	44%	276	250	47	9	1	5	21	78	3	5	1	190	261	300	561	110	250	28	8	255	59	-14	+1	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	49%	301	272	52	10	1	6	23	85	3	5	1	192	263	302	566	111	251	28	8	257	60	-14	+1	+0	+5	+7	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	51%	312	282	54	10	1	6	24	88	3	4	1	192	264	303	567	110	253	28	8	258	61	-15	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	51%	311	281	54	10	1	6	24	87	3	3	1	193	264	302	566	109	253	28	8	257	60	-15	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	30%	68	62	11	2	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	187	259	291	550	104	250	29	7	251	56	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	44%	122	111	21	4	1	2	9	35	1	2	1	190	261	297	558	107	252	29	7	254	59	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	49%	147	133	26	5	1	3	11	41	2	2	1	192	263	299	563	108	253	28	7	256	60	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	51%	161	145	28	5	1	3	13	45	2	2	1	193	264	300	564	108	254	28	8	257	61	-8	+0	-0	+3	+3	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	51%	160	145	28	5	1	3	12	45	2	1	1	193	264	299	563	106	255	28	8	256	60	-8	-0	-1	+3	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	658	596	114	21	4	12	50	186	8	8	4	191	263	300	563	109	254	28	8	255	55	-32	+0	-1	+12	+14	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	113	21	4	12	49	184	8	8	4	192	263	302	565	110	254	28	8	255	55	-31	+0	-1	+12	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1989	1798	331	62	6	36	153	579	22	33	10	184	256	285	542	101	247	29	8	250	55	-79	+2	-2	+29	+35	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	108	20	2	12	50	189	7	11	3	184	256	286	542	102	246	29	8	250	55	-32	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 294 PAwOBA .281 → .209 (−72)K% 24.1% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.15%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	32.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.54%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	7.20%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.31%
Singles /BIP	17.74%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.990	15.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.99%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.990	5.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	2.55%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .281 → .209; ISO .121 → .088; BABIP .254 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 21 PAwOBA .242 → .202 (−40)K% 33.3% → 40.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	40.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.027	36.34%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .242 → .202; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .385 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 58 PAwOBA .402 → .324 (−78)K% 20.7% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.69%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	28.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.69%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	—	14.45%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.34%
Singles /BIP	24.24%	÷0.995	×0.920	—	—	22.43%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷0.896	×0.830	—	—	2.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.973	×0.800	—	—	7.47%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .402 → .324; ISO .222 → .182; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.3	848	16	12	190	259	299	+15	+12	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	13	10	+11.9	+9.4	-0.2	pk7: 0
#5Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Matt Walbeck'93-'03 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,280 PA	3.4	2,280	28	13	222*	268*	305*	+40	-0	-3.5	-1.5
/162	664	8	4	+11.5	-0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Heath (OGILVIE)	24	30	41	47	51	182/252/284	102	245	3	3	29%	8%	53	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	189/265/291	102	263	10	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	193/262/310	117	276	12	11	32%	8%	62	-1.4	179/257/294	115	257	12	17	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Collin Price 2024 · A	24	37→36	43→50	43→45	44	186/262/299	114	266	11	4	33%	9%	60	-1.6	190/264/324	134	268	16	7	33%	8%	67	-1.1	176/256/317	141	243	18	8	34%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	32→40	43→45	47→45	44	169/250/274	105	239	11	6	33%	8%	50	-2.3	190/273/295	105	264	10	5	30%	9%	63	-1.3	177/267/274	97	242	10	3	29%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→30	45	50	37	195/253/316	121	280	13	12	34%	6%	60	-1.6	211/268/301	90	312	8	17	33%	6%	61	-1.5	216/273/285	69	324	7	24	33%	6%	57	-1.2
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	39→37	38→40	42→45	46	187/272/266	79	264	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.9	176/250/244	68	255	4	8	30%	7%	42	-2.9	151/222/201	49	225	2	6	31%	6%	20	-2.7
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/274	101	254	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	187/255/288	101	273	9	8	33%	8%	54	-2.0	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Mateo Gil 2024 · AA	24	37→33	44→45	45	38	192/239/311	120	269	12	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	190/231/300	110	273	11	6	33%	5%	47	-2.5	156/185/252	96	223	10	3	35%	3%	16	-2.5
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/278/294	103	260	10	6	29%	8%	65	-1.2	197/274/326	129	246	14	10	25%	7%	71	-0.8	183/262/322	139	217	16	12	24%	7%	63	-0.8
✕Riccio Torrez 2014 · AA	24	41→34	40	47→45	40	199/257/292	93	247	8	5	23%	4%	56	-1.9	205/257/300	95	273	7	8	27%	4%	57	-1.8	157/181/229	72	223	4	4	31%	2%	7	-1.0
✕Joseph Odom 2016 · A	24	37	44→45	42→30	41	190/246/305	115	260	12	4	31%	7%	55	-2.0	219/258/326	107	295	10	3	28%	5%	63	-1.4	186/243/289	103	304	11	2	40%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	40→45	48→40	36	175/227/261	86	258	9	5	35%	5%	37	-3.3	194/249/303	109	286	12	4	34%	6%	55	-1.9	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/261/307	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	204/263/312	108	293	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/309	114	278	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Braeden Schlehuber 2012 · AA	24	38	41→45	44→40	40	189/235/282	93	229	8	5	22%	4%	45	-2.7	206/252/313	107	247	11	5	21%	4%	59	-1.7	200/245/299	99	232	10	3	19%	3%	51	-1.0
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	41→45	46→50	44	179/263/272	92	266	8	8	34%	8%	55	-2.0	185/271/281	96	287	9	9	35%	9%	59	-1.6	166/261/256	90	258	9	10	36%	9%	48	-1.2
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	176/239/272	96	267	8	7	36%	7%	45	-2.7	203/269/313	110	288	10	8	31%	7%	65	-1.2	192/265/298	106	267	9	5	30%	8%	56	-0.9
✕Camden Duzenack 2019 · A	24	39→36	39→50	46→50	41	191/253/277	87	252	5	11	26%	5%	51	-2.3	186/241/309	123	254	15	9	32%	5%	54	-2.0	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	46→50	41	187/264/259	71	271	7	10	31%	6%	52	-2.2	177/268/264	87	291	8	12	39%	8%	55	-1.9	149/254/236	86	262	7	16	41%	8%	43	-1.6
✕Max Burt 2021 · AA	24	39→35	40→45	44→55	34	194/240/276	82	279	8	6	33%	4%	45	-2.7	201/252/312	111	285	12	16	32%	5%	59	-1.7	191/247/304	113	267	13	21	32%	6%	52	-1.2

Chase Heath

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps