Chase Heath — OGILVIE

Chase HeathC Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION275 act + 183 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .276 / .324

PA183

HR4

K%30

BB%8

BABIP266

ISO129

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	48	11	1	0	3	9	17	1	2	0	229	362	438	800	208	286	29	16	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	STL	—	275	248	41	11	0	5	21	91	5	6	4	165	245	270	515	105	235	33	8	228	33	-21	-0	+0	+5	+8	-0.9
YTD	23	A	STL	—	275	241	51	13	0	6	28	64	5	6	4	212	307	340	647	129	262	23	10	296	85	-5	-0	+0	+5	+8	0.8
ROS	23	A	STL	0%	183	163	32	7	1	4	15	55	3	3	2	196	276	324	600	129	260	30	8	267	62	-8	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		260	—	—	256	54	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	STL	—	275	249	41	11	0	5	21	91	5	6	4	165	245	269	514	104	234	33	8	228	33	-21	-0	+0	+5	+8	-0.9
TOT	23	A	STL	—	458	411	73	18	1	9	36	146	8	9	6	177	257	292	549	114	248	32	8	243	45	-29	-1	+0	+8	+13	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	STL	38%	327	292	58	12	1	8	28	96	4	5	2	199	278	329	607	130	264	29	9	274	68	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.3
2028	25	MLB	STL	55%	383	343	69	14	1	9	32	110	5	6	2	201	279	327	605	125	266	29	8	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2029	26	MLB	STL	64%	416	372	78	16	2	11	35	118	6	6	2	210	288	352	640	142	267	28	8	282	74	-12	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.8
2030	27	MLB	STL	66%	425	379	79	16	2	11	37	120	6	6	3	208	289	348	637	140	268	28	9	283	75	-12	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.8
2027	24	MLB	STL	38%	123	110	22	5	0	3	10	36	2	2	1	200	279	327	606	127	263	29	8	263	60	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	25	MLB	STL	55%	212	189	39	8	1	5	18	61	3	3	1	206	286	339	624	132	266	29	8	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2029	26	MLB	STL	64%	265	236	49	10	1	7	23	75	4	4	2	208	289	347	636	140	267	28	9	272	66	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2030	27	MLB	STL	66%	279	249	51	10	1	7	24	79	4	4	2	205	285	337	623	133	268	28	9	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	879	785	161	33	3	22	75	251	13	13	6	205	286	339	624	134	269	29	9	270	65	-35	+0	+0	+16	+25	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	118	24	2	16	55	186	10	10	4	203	284	334	618	131	268	29	8	270	65	-26	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	1792	1597	327	66	7	46	156	516	25	28	11	205	286	341	627	136	269	29	9	281	73	-55	+1	+0	+32	+51	3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	119	24	3	17	57	187	9	10	4	206	287	345	632	140	270	29	9	281	73	-20	+0	+0	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	58	45	12	1	0	3	12	12	1	2	0	267	431	489	920	222	300	21	21	412	173	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,027	25	16	206	282	340	+18	+12	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	16	10	206	282	340	+11.9	+7.8	1.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Heath (OGILVIE)	23	30→35	43→48	48→53	58	177/257/292	114	248	9	9	32%	8%	45	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→38	46→50	48→45	53	208/301/343	135	264	13	11	25%	11%	82	+0.5	198/289/339	141	285	14	8	33%	10%	77	+0.1	175/277/324	148	244	17	6	34%	11%	65	-0.5
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→38	48→55	53→50	39	206/266/349	143	284	16	9	32%	6%	69	-0.4	214/278/357	143	300	16	10	33%	6%	76	+0.1	212/284/375	163	291	20	9	33%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→42	44→50	50→40	49	214/303/331	117	278	11	7	26%	9%	81	+0.4	223/308/361	138	300	15	5	29%	8%	91	+1.1	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→36	50→45	51→50	40	209/279/369	160	275	18	9	30%	6%	80	+0.4	213/288/327	114	289	10	10	28%	6%	73	-0.1	210/300/295	85	278	6	10	24%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/348	122	288	12	8	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/284/369	152	276	20	4	28%	8%	82	+0.5	213/284/361	148	267	20	2	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→40	44→50	46→30	45	208/280/323	115	292	11	4	31%	8%	68	-0.5	218/291/365	147	292	17	3	30%	8%	84	+0.6	217/295/377	160	283	19	1	29%	9%	86	+0.4
✕Travis Jones 2009 · A	23	41→47	48→45	46→50	48	212/289/356	144	267	16	11	27%	9%	81	+0.4	213/284/325	112	291	11	15	29%	8%	70	-0.3	207/279/304	98	286	9	19	29%	8%	60	-0.6
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	41	44→45	47→40	42	201/283/317	116	296	12	5	34%	8%	69	-0.4	206/259/296	90	269	8	6	25%	5%	51	-1.7	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	36→30	49→60	49→40	48	187/277/335	148	272	17	5	36%	11%	71	-0.3	188/268/347	159	301	20	4	41%	9%	70	-0.3	179/261/368	189	250	28	4	40%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→39	47→50	43→30	48	212/291/346	133	289	14	4	30%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/349	145	281	18	3	32%	10%	79	+0.3	185/276/320	135	253	18	0	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Jared Keel 2008 · A	23	44→38	51→50	48→45	48	225/305/387	162	279	18	7	26%	8%	95	+1.4	203/288/360	157	251	18	8	26%	9%	82	+0.5	184/277/341	157	222	19	8	26%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	52→50	51→55	45	219/286/388	169	275	19	17	28%	8%	88	+0.9	179/253/304	125	255	16	21	35%	8%	53	-1.5	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	44	47→50	58→50	45	221/288/362	141	302	14	18	31%	8%	81	+0.4	208/272/332	124	270	14	11	27%	8%	66	-0.6	216/281/385	169	263	20	13	26%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	37	46→55	47→30	44	188/274/317	128	274	14	2	35%	9%	65	-0.7	199/274/344	145	282	17	3	34%	7%	72	-0.2	184/260/325	141	260	18	0	35%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Aramis Garcia 2016 · A	23	42	47→55	45	42	214/272/341	128	283	16	3	30%	7%	69	-0.4	216/263/349	133	291	16	3	31%	5%	67	-0.5	215/256/360	145	286	19	0	31%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Freuddy Batista 2023 · A	23	40	51→50	49→40	38	205/276/364	159	296	19	8	36%	6%	78	+0.2	209/263/343	134	299	14	4	34%	5%	66	-0.6	205/257/341	135	285	15	1	32%	5%	59	-0.6