Emmanuel Reyes — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Reyes P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%15.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	12	11	49	185	52	4	1	92%	4.1	19.1%	2.7%	16.4%	0.6%	0.91	2.18	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	12	11	49	185	52	4	1	92%	4.1	28.1%	2.2%	25.9%	0.5%	0.91	1.50	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	67%	4.6	15.4%	6.6%	8.8%	1.6%	3.88	3.53	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	67%	4.6	15.4%	6.6%	8.8%	1.6%	3.88	3.53	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	67%	4.6	21.8%	5.4%	16.3%	1.4%	3.88	2.70	—
2024	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	2.3%	3.62	4.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	2.3%	3.62	4.25	—
2024	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	19.3%	7.3%	12.0%	1.8%	3.62	3.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	2.3%	4.15	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	2.3%	4.15	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	2.0%	4.15	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	4.1%	4.82	5.48	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	4.1%	4.82	5.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	KC	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	114	480	84	41	13	100%	5.4	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	117	492	93	40	14	100%	5.6	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.45	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	118	499	99	40	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.35	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	118	499	101	40	14	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.35	4.31	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	116	491	99	39	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	476	96	39	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.43	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	455	90	38	14	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.4%	11.4%	3.1%	4.50	4.56	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	427	83	37	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	3.3%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	94	399	76	36	14	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.1%	10.1%	3.5%	4.83	4.94	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	56	236	41	20	6	100%	5.6	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	2.6%	4.58	4.50	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	82	346	65	28	9	100%	5.5	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	2.6%	4.43	4.34	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	80	32	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	2.6%	4.31	4.24	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	103	435	88	35	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.3%	2.6%	4.24	4.20	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	90	36	12	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	2.6%	4.23	4.23	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	104	439	88	36	12	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.28	4.31	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	100	422	84	36	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.43	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	78	35	12	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.60	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	90	380	73	34	12	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	830	3506	687	292	97	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.02	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	70	23	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		92	77	407	1701	258	146	43	84%	4.4	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.5%	3.76	4.30	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	835	127	72	21	84%	4.4	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.5%	3.76	4.30	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	15.1%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.47	18.7%	10.5%	348	-0.42	—	—	—
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	89
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	89
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	88
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Tyler Beardsley R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	22	SP	3.79	13.0%	7.4%	1.6%	.275	4.96	8.7%	2.3%	85	+1.17	3.79	145	86
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	84
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	84
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	84
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	84
Ben Taylor R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP	3.82	14.3%	9.2%	1.4%	.297	2.96	25.1%	18.1%	167	-0.86	2.43	268	84
Noah Bremer R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	14.7%	8.5%	2.5%	.351	3.76	18.0%	8.5%	144	-0.54	3.19	271	83
Dane Myers R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP	4.26	14.7%	9.2%	2.2%	.284	5.32	12.2%	0.7%	52	+1.06	4.26	125	83
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	83
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	83
Michael Murray R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.4%	7.3%	3.5%	.343	4.37	16.1%	6.8%	42	-0.34	4.32	116	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	105	19.3%	8.3%	1.15	4.54
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14