Emmanuel Reyes

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#593ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AKC	23	21	107	3.62	3.38	19.3%	7.3%	—	K 14.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.25
2025	21	MIX3 levels	18	12	69	4.15	3.76	17.3%	8.0%	—	K 12.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.54
2026	22	A+KC	24	23	112	4.82	4.46	20.7%	10.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.48
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.25	5.25	16.2%	10.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	6	6	35	4.90	4.82	18.1%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	8	8	49	4.73	4.65	19.2%	9.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsBradley Brehmer (age 23) · Riley Thompson (age 23) · Cameron Foster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.2%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	12	11	49	185	52	4	1	92%	4.1	19.1%	2.7%	16.4%	0.6%	0.91	2.18	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	12	11	49	185	52	4	1	92%	4.1	28.1%	2.2%	25.9%	0.5%	0.91	1.50	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	67%	4.6	15.4%	6.6%	8.8%	1.6%	3.88	3.53	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	67%	4.6	21.8%	5.4%	16.3%	1.4%	3.88	2.70	—
2024	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	2.3%	3.62	4.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	2.3%	3.62	4.25	—
2024	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	91%	4.7	19.3%	7.3%	12.0%	1.8%	3.62	3.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	2.3%	4.15	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	12.5%	9.6%	2.9%	2.3%	4.15	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	67%	3.9	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	2.0%	4.15	3.76	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	4.1%	4.82	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	4.1%	4.82	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	24	23	112	482	100	48	16	96%	4.7	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	3.3%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	81	343	62	34	11	100%	5.4	18.1%	9.8%	8.2%	3.2%	5.03	4.95	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	74	313	60	29	10	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.86	4.78	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	308	61	28	10	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.2%	10.6%	3.2%	4.75	4.70	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	70	298	59	28	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.2%	10.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.73	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	282	56	27	9	100%	6.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.81	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	262	51	25	9	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.88	4.95	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	56	237	45	24	9	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.9%	9.2%	3.7%	5.03	5.12	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	35	148	27	15	4	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.8%	8.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.82	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	40	19	6	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.65	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	49	23	7	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	60	253	50	23	8	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	60	253	50	24	8	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	56	236	46	23	8	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	42	22	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.2%	3.4%	4.88	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	370	1562	304	148	48	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.34	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	80	26	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		92	77	407	1701	258	146	43	84%	4.4	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.5%	3.76	4.30	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	835	127	72	21	84%	4.4	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.5%	3.76	4.30	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 112 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.48 (+1.05)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.75%	—	×0.770	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.96%	—	×1.150	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 31 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.87 (+0.81)K% 16.6% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.55%	—	×0.770	12.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.150	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷0.983	×1.250	2.63%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 29 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.14 (+0.69)K% 16.5% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.53%	—	×0.740	12.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.61%	—	×1.180	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 9 IPFIP 3.47 → 5.09 (+1.61)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.680	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.939	×1.400	4.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 107 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.25 (+0.86)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.740	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.180	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.32%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 38 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.37 (+0.79)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.35%	—	×0.740	13.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.180	5.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.089	×1.300	3.02%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 32 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.55 (+0.88)K% 25.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.74%	—	×0.680	17.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL KC Stewart · 49 IPFIP 1.30 → 2.18 (+0.89)K% 28.1% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.11%	—	×0.680	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.16%	—	×1.250	2.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷1.166	×1.400	0.65%

Result: FIP 1.30 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	16.2%	10.7%	3.3%	—	4.81	19.0%	9.5%	228	-0.44	—	—	—
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	88
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	88
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	87
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	86
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	86
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	86
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	84
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	18.9%	9.7%	1.27	4.92
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*