Emmanuel Reyes — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Reyes P Quad Cities River Bandits

+0.4 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2031

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.7%

IP75

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2031

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL KC Stewart	12	11	49	185	52	4	1	19.1%	2.7%	0.6%	0.91	2.15	+1.6
2023	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	15	10	70	294	64	16	4	15.4%	6.6%	1.7%	3.88	3.54	+1.2
2024	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	107	440	85	32	8	14.3%	8.6%	2.3%	3.62	4.25	+1.3
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	18	12	69	300	52	24	6	12.5%	9.6%	2.3%	4.15	4.54	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	2	7	28	6	4	0	—	—	—	1.29	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	KC	14	14	75	318	60	29	9	18.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2026 Total	22	MLB	KC	—	—	82	346	66	33	9	19.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.32	4.21	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	KC	14	14	78	330	67	29	9	20.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.47	4.41	+0.6
2028	24	MLB	KC	15	15	80	338	72	29	9	21.2%	8.5%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+0.8
2029	25	MLB	KC	17	17	93	393	85	33	11	21.6%	8.3%	2.8%	4.29	4.24	+1.1
2030	26	MLB	KC	18	18	100	423	92	35	12	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.25	4.22	+1.2
2031	27	MLB	KC	19	19	103	436	95	36	12	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.23	+1.3
2032	28	MLB	KC	19	19	104	438	96	37	12	21.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.25	4.25	+1.2
2033	29	MLB	KC	18	18	102	429	93	36	12	21.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.30	+1.2
2034	30	MLB	KC	18	18	98	416	89	36	12	21.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.36	+1.0
2035	31	MLB	KC	17	17	95	402	85	35	12	21.3%	8.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.43	+0.9
2036	32	MLB	KC	17	17	91	385	81	34	12	21.0%	8.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.52	+0.7
2037	33	MLB	KC	16	16	87	368	76	33	12	20.7%	9.0%	3.2%	4.56	4.62	+0.6
2038	34	MLB	KC	15	15	83	350	71	32	11	20.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.66	4.73	+0.4
2039	35	MLB	KC	14	14	78	329	72	28	11	21.9%	8.6%	3.4%	4.61	4.58	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			70	56	302	1247	187	95	23	15.0%	7.6%	1.9%	3.30	3.82	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—			46	37	200	825	124	63	15	15.0%	7.6%	1.9%	3.30	3.82	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	18.9%	9.2%	2.8%	—	4.31	21.1%	12.6%	251	-0.29	—	—	—
Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	94
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	94
Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	22	SW	4.39	19.5%	10.0%	3.1%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	93
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	23	SW	3.81	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.92	13.9%	7.0%	196	+1.11	3.81	264	92
Joan Gregorio R 2027 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.21	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.71	301	92
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	92
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	91
Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.91	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.06	3.85	156	91
Matt Anderson R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	23	SW	3.87	17.4%	7.5%	2.4%	.288	2.99	17.5%	10.7%	62	-0.88	2.99	129	91
Marcel Rentería R 2027 · 4.12 FIP	23	SW	4.12	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.12	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.00	3.91	194	91
Brian Glowicki R 2027 · 3.93 FIP	23	SW	3.93	17.4%	8.8%	2.2%	.254	3.71	22.4%	14.4%	89	-0.22	2.30	189	90
Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	90
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	90
TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	22	SW	3.74	17.0%	9.0%	1.7%	.310	4.94	23.2%	16.7%	134	+1.20	3.74	205	90
Andrew Bellatti R 2027 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	278	90
Tai Tiedemann R 2027 · 3.84 FIP	23	SW	3.84	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.79	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.95	3.84	190	90
David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	90
Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	89
Craig Missigman R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.9	$5M	+$0.2M
Totals		$13M		$61M	+$48M