Emmanuel Reyes
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%18.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 12 | 11 | 49 | 185 | 52 | 4 | 1 | 92% | 4.1 | 19.1% | 2.7% | 16.4% | 0.6% | 0.91 | 2.14 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 12 | 11 | 49 | 185 | 52 | 4 | 1 | 92% | 4.1 | 28.1% | 2.2% | 25.9% | 0.5% | 0.91 | 1.50 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 70 | 294 | 64 | 16 | 4 | 67% | 4.6 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 70 | 294 | 64 | 16 | 4 | 67% | 4.6 | 21.8% | 5.4% | 16.3% | 1.4% | 3.88 | 2.70 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 21 | 107 | 440 | 85 | 32 | 8 | 91% | 4.7 | 14.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 21 | 107 | 440 | 85 | 32 | 8 | 91% | 4.7 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 12 | 69 | 300 | 52 | 24 | 6 | 67% | 3.9 | 12.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 12 | 69 | 300 | 52 | 24 | 6 | 67% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 4.15 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 16 | 16 | 79 | 335 | 66 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.2% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.89 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 53 | 223 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 131 | 558 | 108 | 52 | 18 | — | — | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 55 | 231 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 56 | 237 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 240 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 52 | 219 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 45 | 192 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 68 | 400 | 1687 | 362 | 147 | 49 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.98 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 70 | 374 | 1554 | 232 | 128 | 37 | 83% | 4.5 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 4.20 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 831 | 124 | 68 | 20 | 83% | 4.5 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emmanuel Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 168 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 93 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 88 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 87 |
| Jesus Lugo R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .243 | 7.11 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 45 | +3.32 | 3.79 | 113 | 87 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 87 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 87 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 86 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 86 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.01 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .308 | 5.03 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 83 | +1.02 | 4.01 | 175 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 86 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| Tommy Bergjans R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.49 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .327 | 4.29 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 268 | +0.80 | 3.49 | 322 | 85 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 84 |
| Tanner Jones R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .317 | 4.83 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 68 | +1.03 | 3.80 | 108 | 84 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 84 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 84 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 53 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 1.14 | 4.41 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |