Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022
17
ROKMLE
DSL Brewers 1
11
11
40
183
45
33
1
100%
3.7
16.7%
22.5%
-5.8%
0.7%
3.79
4.92
—
2022
17
ROKRAW
DSL Brewers 1
11
11
40
183
45
33
1
100%
3.7
24.6%
18.0%
6.6%
0.5%
3.79
3.65
—
2024
19
ROKMLE
DSL Brewers 1
8
7
16
62
33
6
0
88%
2.0
36.2%
12.1%
24.1%
0.0%
1.72
1.58
—
2024
19
ROKMLE
DSL Brewers 1
8
7
16
62
33
6
0
88%
2.0
36.2%
12.1%
24.1%
0.0%
1.72
1.58
—
2024
19
ROKRAW
DSL Brewers 1
8
7
16
62
33
6
0
88%
2.0
53.2%
9.7%
43.5%
0.0%
1.72
0.04
—
2025
20
AMLE
Carolina Mudcats
23
23
86
374
85
36
3
100%
3.7
16.8%
11.4%
5.5%
0.9%
4.81
3.59
—
2025
20
AMLE
Carolina Mudcats
23
23
86
374
85
36
3
100%
3.7
16.8%
11.4%
5.5%
0.9%
4.81
3.59
—
2025
20
ARAW
Carolina Mudcats
23
23
86
374
85
36
3
100%
3.7
22.7%
9.6%
13.1%
0.8%
4.81
2.83
—
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
18
122
536
131
55
11
69%
4.7
19.4%
11.7%
7.7%
2.5%
4.41
4.32
—
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
18
122
536
131
55
11
69%
4.7
19.4%
11.7%
7.7%
2.5%
4.41
4.32
—
2026
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
26
18
122
536
131
55
11
69%
4.7
24.4%
10.3%
14.2%
2.1%
4.41
3.48
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
22
MLB
MIL
16
16
80
338
65
41
9
100%
5.0
19.4%
12.1%
7.2%
2.7%
4.87
4.87
+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
23
MLBMLE
MIL
21
21
114
482
99
52
13
100%
5.4
20.5%
10.8%
9.7%
2.7%
4.68
4.60
+0.4
2029
24
MLBMLE
MIL
21
21
117
494
105
50
13
100%
5.6
21.1%
10.0%
11.1%
2.7%
4.52
4.44
+0.6
2030
25
MLBMLE
MIL
20
20
119
501
108
48
13
100%
5.9
21.6%
9.6%
12.0%
2.7%
4.41
4.35
+0.8
2031
26
MLBMLE
MIL
20
20
119
501
109
47
13
100%
5.9
21.8%
9.5%
12.3%
2.7%
4.35
4.32
+0.8
2032
27
MLBMLE
MIL
19
19
117
493
107
47
14
100%
6.1
21.8%
9.6%
12.2%
2.7%
4.36
4.36
+0.7
2033
28
MLBMLE
MIL
19
19
113
478
103
46
14
100%
6.0
21.6%
9.7%
11.9%
2.8%
4.41
4.44
+0.6
2034
29
MLBMLE
MIL
18
18
108
457
98
45
14
100%
6.0
21.4%
9.9%
11.5%
3.0%
4.51
4.57
+0.4
2035
30
MLBMLE
MIL
17
17
102
429
90
44
14
100%
6.0
21.0%
10.2%
10.8%
3.2%
4.66
4.75
+0.2
2036
31
MLBMLE
MIL
16
16
95
400
83
42
14
100%
5.9
20.6%
10.6%
10.1%
3.4%
4.84
4.95
-0.1
2028
23
MLBCTX
MIL
10
10
56
236
48
26
7
100%
5.6
20.5%
10.8%
9.7%
2.8%
4.75
4.67
+0.2
2029
24
MLBCTX
MIL
15
15
82
346
73
35
10
100%
5.5
21.1%
10.0%
11.1%
2.8%
4.59
4.51
+0.4
2030
25
MLBCTX
MIL
16
16
96
405
87
39
11
100%
6.0
21.6%
9.6%
12.0%
2.8%
4.48
4.42
+0.6
2031
26
MLBCTX
MIL
17
17
104
439
96
42
12
100%
6.1
21.8%
9.5%
12.3%
2.8%
4.42
4.39
+0.7
2032
27
MLBCTX
MIL
18
18
105
443
96
42
13
100%
5.8
21.8%
9.6%
12.2%
2.9%
4.44
4.44
+0.7
2033
28
MLBCTX
MIL
17
17
104
439
95
43
13
100%
6.1
21.6%
9.7%
11.9%
3.0%
4.49
4.52
+0.6
2034
29
MLBCTX
MIL
17
17
101
426
91
42
13
100%
5.9
21.4%
9.9%
11.5%
3.1%
4.59
4.65
+0.4
2035
30
MLBCTX
MIL
16
16
95
401
84
41
13
100%
5.9
21.0%
10.2%
10.8%
3.4%
4.75
4.84
+0.2
2036
31
MLBCTX
MIL
15
15
90
380
78
40
14
100%
6.0
20.6%
10.6%
10.1%
3.6%
4.93
5.04
-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
142
142
834
3522
751
350
107
100%
5.9
21.3%
9.9%
11.4%
3.0%
4.59
4.22
+6.7
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
180
84
26
100%
5.9
21.3%
9.9%
11.4%
3.0%
4.59
4.22
+1.6
Career
—
MLE
68
59
264
1155
220
154
18
87%
3.9
19.0%
13.3%
5.7%
1.5%
4.29
4.03
+4.5
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
51
45
200
874
166
117
14
87%
3.9
19.0%
13.3%
5.7%
1.5%
4.29
4.03
+0.9
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.