Jose Chirinos — OGILVIE

Jose Chirinos P St. Lucie Mets

+0.3 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.4%

IP58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	12	8	33	149	29	18	6	13.2%	15.1%	5.6%	4.91	6.99	-0.8
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	19.0%	11.6%	0.7%	4.62	3.34	+0.7
2024	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	17.0%	17.4%	0.0%	6.21	3.87	+0.5
2025	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	17.1%	13.9%	0.5%	3.01	3.70	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	2	2	7	28	8	3	0	—	—	—	1.29	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	NYM	58	—	58	244	52	27	6	21.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2026 Total	21	MLB	NYM	—	—	65	272	60	30	6	22.0%	10.9%	2.3%	4.14	4.01	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	NYM	11	11	61	257	57	25	7	22.4%	9.9%	2.6%	4.35	4.26	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	NYM	11	11	63	266	62	25	7	23.2%	9.3%	2.6%	4.21	4.11	+0.6
2029	24	MLB	NYM	12	12	65	273	65	24	7	23.7%	8.9%	2.6%	4.09	4.01	+0.7
2030	25	MLB	NYM	12	12	66	277	67	24	7	24.1%	8.7%	2.6%	4.01	3.95	+0.8
2031	26	MLB	NYM	12	12	66	277	67	24	7	24.3%	8.7%	2.6%	3.96	3.93	+0.8
2032	27	MLB	NYM	12	12	65	274	67	24	7	24.3%	8.7%	2.6%	3.95	3.94	+0.8
2033	28	MLB	NYM	12	12	64	270	66	24	7	24.3%	8.8%	2.6%	3.96	3.97	+0.7
2034	29	MLB	NYM	11	11	63	264	64	23	7	24.2%	8.8%	2.6%	3.99	4.01	+0.7
2035	30	MLB	NYM	11	11	61	256	61	23	7	24.0%	8.9%	2.7%	4.04	4.07	+0.6
2036	31	MLB	NYM	59	—	59	247	59	22	7	23.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.10	4.15	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	NYM	56	—	56	238	56	22	7	23.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.23	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	NYM	54	—	54	227	53	21	7	23.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.33	+0.4
2039	34	MLB	NYM	51	—	51	216	49	21	7	22.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.44	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			57	41	188	846	145	121	11	17.2%	14.3%	1.3%	4.25	4.18	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—			61	44	200	898	154	128	12	17.2%	14.3%	1.3%	4.25	4.18	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.3%	10.9%	2.6%	—	4.12	23.1%	13.7%	189	-0.37	—	—	—
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	93
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	93
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	92
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	92
Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	21	SW	3.76	23.6%	12.1%	2.0%	.294	5.22	21.3%	2.0%	17	+1.46	3.66	349	92
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	91
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	91
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	91
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	90
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	90
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	89
Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	89
Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	89
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	89
Shane Broyles R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	89
Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	89
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	88
Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	88
Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	88
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$18M	+$11M