Jose Chirinos — OGILVIE

Jose Chirinos P St. Lucie Mets

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%17.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP71

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	12	8	33	149	29	18	6	67%	2.8	13.2%	15.1%	-1.9%	5.6%	4.91	6.99	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	12	8	33	149	29	18	6	67%	2.8	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	4.0%	4.91	5.34	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	100%	3.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.3%	0.7%	4.62	3.33	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	100%	3.5	27.9%	9.3%	18.6%	0.5%	4.62	2.13	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	54%	2.9	17.0%	17.4%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.21	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	54%	2.9	24.7%	14.6%	10.1%	0.0%	6.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	68%	3.8	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	0.6%	3.01	3.75	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	68%	3.8	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	0.3%	3.01	2.75	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	16	14	77	327	86	28	9	88%	4.8	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.5%	3.64	4.60	+0.3
ROS	21	MLB	NYM	13	13	71	300	54	40	8	100%	5.5	17.9%	13.4%	4.5%	2.6%	5.10	5.10	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	13.4%	4.5%	2.6%	5.10	5.10	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	NYM	—	—	148	627	140	68	17	—	—	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.84	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	NYM	26	26	130	551	111	65	14	100%	5.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.6%	4.82	4.69	+1.1
2028	23	MLB	NYM	32	32	169	715	155	77	18	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.8%	10.9%	2.6%	4.57	4.43	+1.9
2029	24	MLB	NYM	31	31	175	739	167	75	19	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.1%	12.4%	2.6%	4.38	4.27	+2.3
2030	25	MLB	NYM	30	30	177	748	173	73	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.6%	4.26	4.18	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	NYM	30	30	177	748	174	73	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.15	+2.6
2032	27	MLB	NYM	29	29	174	737	172	72	19	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.19	+2.5
2033	28	MLB	NYM	28	28	169	715	166	71	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.28	+2.2
2034	29	MLB	NYM	27	27	162	683	156	70	20	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+1.9
2035	30	MLB	NYM	25	25	152	642	145	68	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.59	+1.4
2036	31	MLB	NYM	24	24	142	598	133	65	20	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	+1.0
2037	32	MLB	NYM	22	22	131	554	120	62	20	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.88	5.01	+0.6
2038	33	MLB	NYM	20	20	120	508	108	60	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.8%	5.11	5.26	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	NYM	18	18	110	462	96	56	19	100%	6.1	20.7%	12.2%	8.4%	4.1%	5.37	5.54	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	NYM	13	13	64	270	55	32	7	100%	4.9	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.6%	4.82	4.69	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	NYM	23	23	123	519	113	56	13	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.8%	10.9%	2.6%	4.57	4.43	+1.4
2029	24	MLB	NYM	26	26	145	612	138	62	16	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.1%	12.4%	2.6%	4.38	4.27	+1.9
2030	25	MLB	NYM	27	27	156	659	152	65	17	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.6%	4.26	4.18	+2.2
2031	26	MLB	NYM	27	27	162	684	159	67	17	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.15	+2.4
2032	27	MLB	NYM	27	27	162	684	159	67	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.19	+2.3
2033	28	MLB	NYM	26	26	158	667	155	67	18	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.28	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	NYM	26	26	154	650	149	66	19	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+1.8
2035	30	MLB	NYM	24	24	144	608	137	64	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.59	+1.4
2036	31	MLB	NYM	22	22	135	570	126	62	19	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	+1.0
2037	32	MLB	NYM	21	21	125	528	115	59	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.88	5.01	+0.6
2038	33	MLB	NYM	19	19	114	481	102	56	18	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.25	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	NYM	16	16	99	418	86	51	17	100%	6.2	20.7%	12.2%	8.4%	4.1%	5.36	5.53	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			297	297	1742	7354	1647	775	216	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.16	+25.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	189	89	25	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.16	+2.9
Career	—			71	53	258	1145	202	150	23	75%	3.6	17.7%	13.1%	4.5%	2.0%	4.15	4.37	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			55	41	200	888	157	116	18	75%	3.6	17.7%	13.1%	4.5%	2.0%	4.15	4.37	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	17.9%	13.4%	2.6%	—	4.44	21.6%	10.8%	475	-0.66	—	—	—
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	89
Jeremy Lee R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	88
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	88
Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP-	4.92	18.6%	15.7%	2.5%	.340	4.59	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.33	4.45	194	87
Jason Savacool R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	5.02	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.23	4.43	225	87
Nick Hull R 2028 · 4.25 FIP	23	SP-	4.25	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.81	18.9%	7.5%	176	+0.56	3.93	268	87
Chase Cohen R 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.66	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.01	3.68	263	86
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.276	4.76	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.44	4.32	308	86
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	18.3%	12.3%	2.2%	.274	4.88	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.57	4.27	384	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	86
Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	6.03	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.83	2.73	357	86
Sam Stuhr R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	15.5%	12.6%	2.4%	.347	5.74	18.4%	13.3%	39	+1.03	4.71	135	86
Jacob Meador R 2028 · 5.28 FIP	23	SP-	5.28	15.6%	14.0%	3.1%	.301	6.83	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.55	5.28	139	86
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	86
Miguel Almonte R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP-	3.94	18.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.300	4.40	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.46	3.02	247	85
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	85
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	85
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP-	4.35	19.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.335	3.97	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.38	3.53	357	84
Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	84
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	149	22.1%	10.7%	1.13	4.55
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45