Jose Chirinos — OGILVIE

Jose Chirinos P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%17.9%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$7M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$36M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	12	8	33	149	29	18	6	67%	2.8	13.2%	15.1%	-1.9%	5.6%	4.91	6.99	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	12	8	33	149	29	18	6	67%	2.8	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	4.0%	4.91	5.34	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	100%	3.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.3%	0.7%	4.62	3.36	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	100%	3.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.3%	0.7%	4.62	3.36	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	39	183	51	17	1	100%	3.5	27.9%	9.3%	18.6%	0.5%	4.62	2.13	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	54%	2.9	17.0%	17.4%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.21	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	54%	2.9	17.0%	17.4%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.21	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	38	178	44	26	0	54%	2.9	24.7%	14.6%	10.1%	0.0%	6.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	68%	3.8	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	0.5%	3.01	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	68%	3.8	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	0.5%	3.01	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	72	308	73	36	1	68%	3.8	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	0.3%	3.01	2.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	24	22	114	485	125	42	12	92%	4.8	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	3.39	4.43	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	24	22	114	485	125	42	12	92%	4.8	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	3.39	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	9	7	42	169	48	10	3	78%	4.7	28.4%	5.9%	22.5%	1.8%	2.36	2.43	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	NYM	15	15	72	316	77	32	9	100%	4.8	24.4%	10.1%	14.2%	2.8%	4.00	3.89	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	8	34	6	5	1	100%	4.1	17.9%	14.4%	3.5%	2.6%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	122	519	131	47	13	—	—	25.3%	9.0%	16.2%	2.5%	3.52	4.49	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	153	647	131	81	17	100%	5.1	20.2%	12.6%	7.7%	2.6%	4.92	4.78	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	33	33	175	739	160	84	19	100%	5.3	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.65	4.50	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	32	32	179	757	171	80	19	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.6%	11.9%	2.6%	4.45	4.32	+1.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	31	31	180	760	175	77	19	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.6%	4.31	4.22	+1.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	180	760	177	77	19	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.6%	4.24	4.20	+1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	177	749	174	77	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.24	4.24	+1.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	726	168	75	20	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.32	+1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	164	694	159	74	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.45	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	154	652	147	71	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	144	608	135	68	20	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.2%	10.9%	3.3%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	133	562	122	66	20	100%	6.1	21.7%	11.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	122	516	109	62	20	100%	6.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	3.8%	5.15	5.31	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	76	321	65	40	8	100%	5.1	20.2%	12.6%	7.7%	2.6%	4.92	4.78	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	128	540	117	61	14	100%	5.3	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.65	4.50	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	149	629	142	67	16	100%	5.5	22.6%	10.6%	11.9%	2.5%	4.45	4.32	+1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	159	671	155	68	17	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.22	+1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	164	692	161	70	18	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.5%	4.24	4.20	+1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	164	692	161	71	18	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.24	4.24	+1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	161	680	157	70	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.32	+1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	156	659	151	70	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.45	+0.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	147	621	140	68	19	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	137	578	128	65	19	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.2%	10.9%	3.3%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	127	536	116	62	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	116	490	104	59	19	100%	6.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	3.8%	5.14	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	288	1683	7107	1598	772	203	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.14	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	92	24	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		79	61	295	1303	232	166	26	77%	3.7	17.8%	12.8%	5.1%	2.0%	3.99	4.32	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	882	157	113	18	77%	3.7	17.8%	12.8%	5.1%	2.0%	3.99	4.32	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	17.9%	14.4%	2.6%	—	4.52	21.5%	10.1%	508	-0.70	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	88
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	88
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	87
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	87
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	87
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	85
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	85
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	84
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	84
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	83
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.1	156	22.2%	11.1%	1.09	4.57
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67