Yeremy Cabrera
CF Wilmington Blue Rocks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROK2 orgs | 304 | .262/.400/.463 | 9 | 24 | 73 | — | .193/.300/.337 |
| 2025 | 20 | ATEX | 451 | .256/.365/.366 | 8 | 43 | 63 | — | .210/.296/.292 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/AWSH | 503 | .251/.350/.404 | 12 | 52 | 59 | — | .196/.266/.317 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBWSH | 1 | .192/.269/.294 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ25% MLB | 23 | MLBWSH | 119 | .198/.275/.311 | 2 | 6 | 67 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ36% MLB | 24 | MLBWSH | 191 | .203/.280/.322 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL TEX Red | — | 172 | 140 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 29 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 179 | 327 | 286 | 613 | 107 | 211 | 17 | 15 | 291 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | — | 211 | 170 | 56 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 329 | 449 | 559 | 1.008 | 229 | 358 | 13 | 16 | 433 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 94 | 81 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 185 | 298 | 247 | 545 | 62 | 283 | 30 | 9 | 263 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 210 | 163 | 49 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 42 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 301 | 447 | 571 | 1.017 | 270 | 345 | 20 | 19 | 435 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 383 | 98 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 52 | 86 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 256 | 365 | 366 | 731 | 110 | 310 | 19 | 12 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 361 | 320 | 71 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 98 | 1 | 34 | 4 | 222 | 303 | 319 | 621 | 97 | 299 | 27 | 10 | 282 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 142 | 111 | 37 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 333 | 471 | 649 | 1.120 | 315 | 423 | 25 | 20 | 473 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 172 | 148 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 115 | 234 | 176 | 410 | 61 | 144 | 21 | 10 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 211 | 181 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 204 | 304 | 309 | 614 | 105 | 223 | 17 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 94 | 83 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 157 | 255 | 205 | 460 | 48 | 272 | 39 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 210 | 177 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 209 | 320 | 395 | 716 | 186 | 249 | 29 | 12 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 400 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 119 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 210 | 296 | 292 | 589 | 82 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 361 | 334 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 129 | 1 | 34 | 4 | 168 | 221 | 237 | 458 | 69 | 253 | 36 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 142 | 119 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 48 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 269 | 379 | 521 | 900 | 252 | 357 | 34 | 14 | 367 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 172 | 148 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 115 | 234 | 176 | 410 | 61 | 144 | 21 | 10 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL TEX Red | — | 172 | 140 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 29 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 179 | 327 | 286 | 613 | 107 | 211 | 17 | 15 | 291 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 211 | 181 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 204 | 304 | 309 | 614 | 105 | 234 | 17 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers Red | — | 211 | 170 | 56 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 329 | 449 | 559 | 1.008 | 229 | 358 | 13 | 16 | 433 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 260 | 50 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 192 | 300 | 335 | 635 | 142 | 270 | 32 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 304 | 244 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 70 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 262 | 400 | 463 | 863 | 201 | 325 | 23 | 16 | 382 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 400 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 119 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 210 | 296 | 292 | 589 | 82 | 283 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 383 | 98 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 52 | 86 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 256 | 365 | 366 | 731 | 110 | 310 | 19 | 12 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 453 | 88 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 176 | 2 | 52 | 6 | 194 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 117 | 286 | 35 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 503 | 431 | 108 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 64 | 133 | 2 | 52 | 6 | 251 | 350 | 404 | 754 | 153 | 329 | 26 | 13 | 336 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 172 | 147 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 116 | 234 | 177 | 411 | 61 | 144 | 21 | 10 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 211 | 183 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 202 | 304 | 306 | 610 | 104 | 223 | 17 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 261 | 50 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 192 | 300 | 333 | 633 | 142 | 256 | 32 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 399 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 119 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 211 | 296 | 293 | 589 | 83 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 454 | 88 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 176 | 2 | 52 | 6 | 194 | 266 | 311 | 576 | 117 | 282 | 35 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 261 | 50 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 192 | 300 | 333 | 633 | 142 | 256 | 32 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 451 | 399 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 119 | 14 | 43 | 4 | 211 | 296 | 293 | 589 | 83 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 454 | 88 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 176 | 2 | 52 | 6 | 194 | 266 | 311 | 576 | 117 | 282 | 35 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 613 | 550 | 107 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 194 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 193 | 269 | 296 | 566 | 103 | 273 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -28 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | WSH | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 269 | 294 | 562 | 101 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 61 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 25% | 472 | 424 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 145 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 199 | 276 | 313 | 589 | 114 | 275 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -18 | +3 | +1 | +2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 36% | 525 | 470 | 95 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 158 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 204 | 281 | 325 | 606 | 121 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -18 | +4 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 43% | 560 | 501 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 47 | 166 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 206 | 284 | 331 | 615 | 125 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -17 | +4 | +3 | +2 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 47% | 578 | 517 | 109 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 169 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 208 | 286 | 335 | 621 | 127 | 278 | 29 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -17 | +4 | +4 | +2 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 582 | 520 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 169 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 209 | 287 | 336 | 623 | 127 | 278 | 29 | 9 | 281 | 77 | -16 | +3 | +4 | +2 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 576 | 515 | 107 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 169 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 208 | 285 | 332 | 616 | 124 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -17 | +3 | +3 | +2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 52% | 562 | 503 | 103 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 166 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 205 | 282 | 326 | 608 | 121 | 276 | 30 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -18 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 50% | 550 | 493 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 165 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 202 | 279 | 319 | 597 | 116 | 274 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -20 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +12 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 25% | 119 | 107 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 198 | 275 | 311 | 586 | 112 | 273 | 31 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 36% | 191 | 171 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 203 | 280 | 322 | 602 | 119 | 275 | 30 | 8 | 273 | 72 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 43% | 240 | 215 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 71 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 206 | 283 | 329 | 612 | 123 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -7 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 47% | 269 | 241 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 79 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 208 | 285 | 333 | 618 | 125 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 279 | 76 | -8 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 277 | 248 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 81 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 209 | 286 | 334 | 620 | 125 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 280 | 77 | -8 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 278 | 249 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 82 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 207 | 284 | 330 | 614 | 123 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 278 | 75 | -8 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 52% | 292 | 262 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 86 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 205 | 281 | 324 | 605 | 119 | 275 | 29 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -10 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 50% | 275 | 247 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 82 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 278 | 316 | 595 | 114 | 274 | 30 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -10 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1941 | 1740 | 354 | 59 | 8 | 43 | 165 | 576 | 21 | 70 | 8 | 203 | 280 | 321 | 601 | 117 | 275 | 30 | 9 | 275 | 69 | -62 | +11 | +9 | +7 | +42 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 119 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 193 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 204 | 281 | 321 | 601 | 117 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 69 | -21 | +4 | +3 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6256 | 5573 | 1125 | 179 | 42 | 131 | 538 | 1838 | 88 | 314 | 44 | 202 | 282 | 320 | 602 | 118 | 273 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -151 | +27 | +20 | +16 | +100 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 117 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 191 | 9 | 33 | 5 | 202 | 283 | 321 | 604 | 119 | 272 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -21 | +4 | +3 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 361 PAwOBA .278 → .211 (−67)K% 27.1% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .278 → .211; ISO .097 → .078; BABIP .299 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 142 PAwOBA .468 → .367 (−101)K% 24.6% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 21.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 10.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 7.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .468 → .367; ISO .315 → .251; BABIP .423 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AHickory Crawdads · 451 PAwOBA .328 → .261 (−67)K% 19.1% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.07% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.53% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 23.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.123 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.69% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .328 → .261; ISO .110 → .083; BABIP .310 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 210 PAwOBA .432 → .305 (−127)K% 20.0% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 12.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.49% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 16.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.44% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 5.62% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .432 → .305; ISO .270 → .194; BABIP .345 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 94 PAwOBA .257 → .208 (−49)K% 29.8% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 4.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.75% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .257 → .208; ISO .062 → .047; BABIP .283 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rangers Red · 211 PAwOBA .425 → .273 (−152)K% 13.3% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.27% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.17% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.06% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 17.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.051 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.126 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.056 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.21% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 93, 2B 110, 3B 125, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .425 → .273; ISO .229 → .118; BABIP .358 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL TEX Red · 172 PAwOBA .285 → .195 (−89)K% 16.9% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.86% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.12% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.32% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 10.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.009 | ×0.600 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 1.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.053 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .285 → .195; ISO .107 → .062; BABIP .211 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).