Sabier Marte — OGILVIE

Sabier Marte P FCL Yankees

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 167 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%18.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3550

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	10	4	30	133	38	3	3	40%	3.0	19.4%	2.8%	16.6%	2.6%	4.15	3.27	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	10	4	30	133	38	3	3	40%	3.0	28.6%	2.3%	26.3%	2.3%	4.15	2.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	8	41	169	42	13	0	73%	3.7	16.9%	9.6%	7.3%	0.0%	2.43	2.89	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	8	41	169	42	13	0	73%	3.7	16.9%	9.6%	7.3%	0.0%	2.43	2.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	11	8	41	169	42	13	0	73%	3.7	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	0.0%	2.43	1.99	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	5	49	206	44	16	4	42%	4.1	14.5%	9.7%	4.8%	2.4%	2.76	4.41	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	5	49	206	44	16	4	42%	4.1	14.5%	9.7%	4.8%	2.4%	2.76	4.41	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	5	49	206	44	16	4	42%	4.1	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	1.9%	2.76	3.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	17	16	61	283	62	30	14	94%	3.6	15.3%	12.9%	2.4%	6.6%	7.42	7.05	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	17	16	61	283	62	30	14	94%	3.6	15.3%	12.9%	2.4%	6.6%	7.42	7.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYY	10	10	34	153	41	16	4	100%	3.4	26.8%	10.5%	16.3%	2.6%	5.77	3.60	—
2026	22	A RAW	NYY	7	6	26	130	21	14	10	86%	3.8	16.2%	10.8%	5.4%	7.7%	9.57	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	62	260	53	24	8	100%	5.1	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.52	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	63	266	56	23	8	100%	5.7	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.39	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	270	58	23	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	270	59	23	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.31	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	63	266	58	23	8	100%	6.3	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	30	127	26	11	4	100%	5.0	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.70	4.63	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	44	186	39	16	6	100%	5.5	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.50	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	52	220	47	19	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	3.1%	4.49	4.44	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	52	20	7	100%	6.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.44	4.42	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	57	241	53	21	8	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.45	4.45	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	239	1008	216	87	31	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.09	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	73	26	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		50	33	181	791	128	77	27	66%	3.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.5%	3.4%	4.48	4.84	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	876	141	85	30	66%	3.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.5%	3.4%	4.48	4.84	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sabier Marte (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	18.7%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.41	21.0%	12.2%	189	-0.33	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	91
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	88
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	86
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	82
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	82
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	21.0%	8.8%	1.13	4.46
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63