Won-Bin Cho
OF Peoria Chiefs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+STL | 428 | .227/.310/.305 | 2 | 13 | 41 | — | .194/.265/.257 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/ASTL | 385 | .240/.347/.350 | 7 | 26 | 56 | — | .197/.277/.281 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+STL | 454 | .271/.393/.501 | 20 | 30 | 104 | — | .231/.325/.410 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBSTL | 1 | .209/.294/.336 | 0 | 0 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 124 | .215/.300/.353 | 3 | 5 | 87 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 202 | .218/.303/.364 | 6 | 7 | 90 | 0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 211 | 400 | 316 | 716 | 105 | 312 | 27 | 20 | 344 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 452 | 378 | 102 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 98 | 4 | 32 | 11 | 270 | 381 | 389 | 770 | 119 | 341 | 22 | 14 | 347 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 374 | 85 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 134 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 227 | 310 | 305 | 615 | 78 | 343 | 31 | 8 | 279 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 368 | 313 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 50 | 87 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 236 | 347 | 342 | 689 | 105 | 308 | 24 | 14 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 17 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 353 | 500 | 853 | 188 | 500 | 41 | 6 | 376 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 221 | 184 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 45 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 272 | 391 | 516 | 907 | 245 | 297 | 20 | 16 | 398 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 233 | 193 | 52 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 58 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 395 | 487 | 882 | 218 | 346 | 25 | 16 | 391 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 145 | 290 | 229 | 519 | 84 | 229 | 39 | 13 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 452 | 396 | 89 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 140 | 4 | 32 | 11 | 225 | 312 | 311 | 622 | 86 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 382 | 74 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 169 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 194 | 265 | 257 | 521 | 63 | 317 | 39 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 368 | 329 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 116 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 195 | 276 | 274 | 550 | 79 | 279 | 32 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 438 | 732 | 188 | 452 | 59 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 221 | 194 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 55 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 242 | 332 | 438 | 770 | 196 | 280 | 25 | 11 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 233 | 204 | 45 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 74 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 221 | 318 | 382 | 700 | 162 | 316 | 32 | 11 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 145 | 290 | 229 | 519 | 84 | 256 | 39 | 13 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 211 | 400 | 316 | 716 | 105 | 312 | 27 | 20 | 344 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 452 | 396 | 89 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 140 | 4 | 32 | 11 | 225 | 312 | 311 | 622 | 86 | 327 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 452 | 378 | 102 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 98 | 4 | 32 | 11 | 270 | 381 | 389 | 770 | 119 | 341 | 22 | 14 | 347 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 382 | 74 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 169 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 194 | 265 | 257 | 521 | 63 | 335 | 39 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 374 | 85 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 134 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 227 | 310 | 305 | 615 | 78 | 343 | 31 | 8 | 279 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 345 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 126 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 194 | 274 | 278 | 552 | 84 | 285 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 385 | 329 | 79 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 94 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 240 | 347 | 350 | 697 | 109 | 314 | 24 | 13 | 320 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 397 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 128 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 234 | 329 | 416 | 745 | 181 | 303 | 28 | 11 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 454 | 377 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 72 | 103 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 271 | 393 | 501 | 894 | 231 | 322 | 23 | 16 | 395 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 145 | 290 | 229 | 519 | 84 | 229 | 39 | 13 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 452 | 399 | 89 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 140 | 4 | 32 | 11 | 223 | 312 | 308 | 620 | 85 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 388 | 74 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 169 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 191 | 265 | 253 | 517 | 62 | 317 | 39 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 344 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 126 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 195 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 84 | 287 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 395 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 128 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 235 | 329 | 418 | 747 | 182 | 298 | 28 | 11 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 428 | 388 | 74 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 169 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 191 | 265 | 253 | 517 | 62 | 317 | 39 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 344 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 126 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 195 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 84 | 287 | 33 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 395 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 128 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 235 | 329 | 418 | 747 | 182 | 298 | 28 | 11 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 564 | 499 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 55 | 165 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 209 | 295 | 340 | 634 | 130 | 279 | 29 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -13 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +12 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 294 | 336 | 630 | 126 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 80 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 30% | 408 | 361 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 117 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 215 | 300 | 358 | 658 | 143 | 281 | 29 | 10 | 296 | 87 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 44% | 456 | 404 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 129 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 219 | 303 | 369 | 673 | 151 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 51% | 483 | 429 | 95 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 135 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 221 | 305 | 376 | 681 | 155 | 283 | 28 | 10 | 305 | 93 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 490 | 435 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 48 | 136 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 221 | 305 | 375 | 680 | 154 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 305 | 92 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 489 | 435 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 136 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 221 | 304 | 372 | 676 | 151 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 480 | 427 | 92 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 135 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 218 | 301 | 365 | 666 | 147 | 280 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 469 | 417 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 133 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 215 | 297 | 357 | 654 | 142 | 278 | 28 | 10 | 294 | 85 | -8 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 30% | 124 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 215 | 300 | 353 | 653 | 138 | 283 | 29 | 10 | 294 | 87 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 44% | 202 | 178 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 57 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 145 | 284 | 28 | 10 | 300 | 90 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 51% | 245 | 217 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 220 | 305 | 370 | 675 | 149 | 284 | 28 | 10 | 303 | 93 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 257 | 228 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 71 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 221 | 305 | 369 | 673 | 148 | 284 | 28 | 10 | 302 | 92 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 261 | 232 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 72 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 220 | 303 | 366 | 669 | 146 | 284 | 28 | 10 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 252 | 224 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 300 | 360 | 660 | 142 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 297 | 89 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 244 | 217 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 69 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 297 | 352 | 649 | 137 | 280 | 28 | 9 | 292 | 85 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1585 | 1406 | 306 | 61 | 6 | 43 | 153 | 444 | 13 | 50 | 14 | 218 | 300 | 361 | 662 | 144 | 284 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 82 | -19 | +4 | -2 | -10 | +34 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 63 | 182 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 217 | 299 | 360 | 660 | 144 | 282 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 82 | -8 | +2 | -1 | -4 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5304 | 4696 | 1009 | 184 | 22 | 132 | 513 | 1584 | 54 | 218 | 69 | 215 | 299 | 348 | 647 | 133 | 292 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -45 | +9 | -3 | -21 | +76 | 1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 124 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 194 | 7 | 27 | 8 | 216 | 301 | 350 | 650 | 134 | 293 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -8 | +2 | -1 | -4 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 233 PAwOBA .382 → .310 (−72)K% 24.9% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.89% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 19.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.73% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .382 → .310; ISO .218 → .174; BABIP .346 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 221 PAwOBA .389 → .333 (−57)K% 20.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 11.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.09% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .389 → .333; ISO .245 → .206; BABIP .297 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 368 PAwOBA .310 → .251 (−59)K% 23.6% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.32% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.45% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.64% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .310 → .251; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .308 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 17 PAwOBA .366 → .246 (−120)K% 41.2% → 56.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 56.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 44.44% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | — | — | 41.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | — | 9.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .366 → .246; ISO .188 → .116; BABIP .500 → .452. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 428 PAwOBA .275 → .229 (−46)K% 31.3% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.31% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.41% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 25.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .275 → .229; ISO .078 → .059; BABIP .343 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 452 PAwOBA .344 → .282 (−61)K% 21.7% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.14% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 26.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.030 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .344 → .282; ISO .119 → .096; BABIP .341 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Cardinals · 100 PAwOBA .337 → .224 (−113)K% 27.0% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 12.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 17.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.074 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 104, 2B 115, 3B 100, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .224; ISO .105 → .066; BABIP .312 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).