Jorgelys Mota

SS Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 22 R/R 6'3" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2285ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A/ROKWSH	292	.216/.289/.292	3	15	15	—	.151/.210/.199
2025	20	AWSH	328	.270/.341/.409	6	25	49	—	.198/.259/.290
2026	21	A+/A/ROKWSH	124	.253/.398/.374	3	13	64	—	.192/.310/.272
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBWSH	278	.175/.247/.260	4	10	45	-0.2
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBWSH	45	.182/.255/.282	1	1	53	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBWSH	95	.190/.262/.305	2	3	61	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed72

BB%66

Chase%41

wRC+30

wOBA26

K%16

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJase Bowen (age 22) · Ismael Alcantara (age 22) · Jamari Baylor (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .245 / .258

PA89

HR1

K%37

BB%6

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	73	65	17	1	1	2	6	22	2	4	2	262	342	400	742	138	366	30	8	335	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	15	13	2	0	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	154	267	308	574	154	333	47	7	263	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	98	85	27	5	2	1	9	31	3	1	2	318	402	459	861	141	481	32	9	382	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	111	102	26	4	2	0	5	39	4	3	2	255	315	333	649	78	413	35	5	296	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	181	162	31	3	0	3	13	60	5	12	5	191	272	265	538	74	280	33	7	251	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	296	80	17	3	6	26	101	6	25	7	270	341	409	750	139	392	31	8	337	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	88	71	15	2	0	0	12	28	5	10	1	211	364	239	603	28	349	32	14	300	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	21	16	5	0	0	2	3	6	2	1	2	312	476	688	1.164	375	375	29	14	497	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	15	12	5	1	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	417	500	750	1.250	333	571	33	7	501	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	73	67	12	1	1	1	4	27	2	4	2	179	247	269	515	90	247	37	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	15	13	2	0	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	154	267	308	574	154	297	67	7	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	98	88	19	3	1	1	6	44	3	1	2	216	289	307	595	91	394	45	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	111	104	20	3	1	0	3	51	4	3	2	192	243	240	484	48	398	46	3	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	181	167	21	2	0	2	8	87	5	12	5	126	189	174	363	48	234	48	4	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	303	60	12	2	4	19	142	6	25	7	198	259	290	550	92	351	43	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	88	76	12	1	0	0	7	37	5	10	1	158	273	171	444	13	307	42	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	21	17	4	0	0	1	2	8	2	1	2	235	381	412	793	176	334	38	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	15	12	4	1	0	1	1	7	1	2	0	333	429	667	1.095	333	428	47	7	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	73	67	12	1	1	1	4	27	2	4	2	179	247	269	515	90	282	37	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	73	65	17	1	1	2	6	22	2	4	2	262	342	400	742	138	366	30	8	335	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	113	102	20	3	2	1	6	54	4	2	2	196	268	294	562	98	396	48	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	113	98	29	5	3	1	10	38	4	2	2	296	384	439	823	143	467	34	9	366	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	292	270	42	5	1	2	12	138	9	15	7	156	216	204	420	48	305	47	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	292	264	57	7	2	3	18	99	9	15	7	216	289	292	580	76	331	34	6	268	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	303	60	12	2	4	19	142	6	25	7	198	259	290	550	92	357	43	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	296	80	17	3	6	26	101	6	25	7	270	341	409	750	139	392	31	8	337	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	124	105	20	2	0	2	10	52	8	13	3	190	309	267	576	76	346	42	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	124	99	25	3	0	3	16	39	8	13	3	253	398	374	772	121	379	31	13	358	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	73	67	12	1	1	1	4	27	2	4	2	179	247	269	515	90	247	37	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	113	102	20	3	2	1	6	54	4	2	2	196	268	294	562	98	381	48	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	292	269	42	5	1	2	12	138	9	15	7	156	216	204	421	48	296	47	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	300	60	12	2	4	19	142	6	25	7	200	259	293	552	93	351	43	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	124	105	20	2	0	2	10	52	8	13	3	190	309	267	576	76	326	42	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	292	269	42	5	1	2	12	138	9	15	7	156	216	204	421	48	296	47	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	328	300	60	12	2	4	19	142	6	25	7	200	259	293	552	93	351	43	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	124	105	20	2	0	2	10	52	8	13	3	190	309	267	576	76	326	42	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	278	252	44	8	1	4	17	103	7	10	3	175	247	260	507	85	274	37	6	234	45	-18	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	35%	130	118	22	4	1	2	8	47	3	4	1	183	255	284	539	101	277	36	6	247	53	-7	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	46%	205	185	36	6	1	5	13	73	5	6	2	190	263	307	569	117	279	36	6	259	61	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	269	243	47	8	1	7	18	93	6	8	2	196	268	323	591	128	281	35	7	267	67	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	320	288	58	10	1	9	22	109	7	9	2	200	272	335	607	135	281	34	7	274	71	-11	+1	+1	+3	+7	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	345	311	62	11	1	9	24	116	7	9	2	201	274	336	610	135	282	34	7	275	72	-11	+1	+1	+4	+7	0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	355	320	64	11	1	10	24	120	8	8	2	199	272	331	603	132	281	34	7	272	70	-13	+1	-0	+4	+8	-0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	351	317	62	11	1	9	24	120	7	7	2	197	269	326	595	129	279	34	7	269	68	-13	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	35%	45	41	7	1	0	1	3	16	1	1	0	182	255	282	537	100	276	36	7	246	53	-3	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	46%	95	87	16	3	0	2	6	34	2	3	1	190	262	305	568	116	279	36	6	258	61	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	139	126	24	4	0	4	9	48	3	4	1	195	268	322	590	127	280	35	6	267	67	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	174	156	31	5	1	5	12	59	4	5	1	199	272	333	605	134	281	34	7	273	71	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	187	168	34	6	1	5	13	63	4	5	1	201	274	335	608	134	281	34	7	274	72	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	193	174	35	6	1	5	13	65	4	4	1	199	272	330	602	131	280	34	7	272	70	-7	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	186	167	34	6	1	5	13	63	4	4	1	197	269	324	593	128	279	34	7	268	68	-7	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1019	919	181	31	4	27	69	348	22	26	6	197	269	328	597	131	281	34	7	269	58	-38	+3	+0	+11	+22	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	116	20	3	17	44	222	14	17	4	198	270	329	600	131	283	34	7	269	58	-24	+2	+0	+7	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2994	2711	519	87	13	62	189	1124	74	113	35	191	263	302	565	110	297	38	6	254	58	-81	+5	+0	+22	+45	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	113	19	3	13	41	244	16	25	8	192	263	301	564	109	299	38	6	254	58	-26	+2	+0	+7	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 88 PAwOBA .293 → .219 (−74)K% 31.8% → 41.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.82%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	41.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.64%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.027	8.40%
HBP% /PA	5.68%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	4.49%
Singles /BIP	30.23%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×1.027	27.01%
Doubles /BIP	4.65%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	3.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .293 → .219; ISO .028 → .021; BABIP .349 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 21 PAwOBA .484 → .373 (−111)K% 28.6% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.00%
HBP% /PA	9.52%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	7.54%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.015	28.01%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.015	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	16.24%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .484 → .373; ISO .375 → .279; BABIP .375 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 15 PAwOBA .521 → .368 (−154)K% 33.3% → 48.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	48.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	4.07%
HBP% /PA	6.67%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	4.73%
Singles /BIP	42.86%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.985	34.62%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	10.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	10.98%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .521 → .368; ISO .333 → .233; BABIP .571 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 328 PAwOBA .328 → .241 (−87)K% 30.8% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.79%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	43.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.93%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.71%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.47%
Singles /BIP	27.69%	÷1.046	×0.920	×1.021	×1.030	25.63%
Doubles /BIP	8.72%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.021	×1.030	7.25%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.106	×0.910	×1.021	×1.030	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷1.040	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .328 → .241; ISO .139 → .095; BABIP .392 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 181 PAwOBA .246 → .165 (−81)K% 33.1% → 47.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.15%	÷0.999	×1.440	—	—	47.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.18%	÷0.979	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.58%
HBP% /PA	2.76%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.00%
Singles /BIP	24.51%	÷1.021	×0.820	×1.050	×1.008	20.83%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷0.987	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	2.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷0.975	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.37%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .246 → .165; ISO .074 → .048; BABIP .280 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 111 PAwOBA .289 → .231 (−58)K% 35.1% → 46.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.14%	÷1.038	×1.360	—	—	46.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.50%	÷1.044	×0.690	—	×1.045	3.11%
HBP% /PA	3.60%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.94%
Singles /BIP	31.75%	÷1.024	×0.920	×1.034	×1.045	30.82%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷0.907	×0.830	×1.034	×1.045	6.28%
Triples /BIP	3.17%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.034	×1.045	2.71%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .289 → .231; ISO .078 → .061; BABIP .413 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 98 PAwOBA .376 → .257 (−119)K% 31.6% → 45.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.63%	÷1.011	×1.440	—	—	45.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.18%	÷1.013	×0.620	—	×1.022	5.75%
HBP% /PA	3.06%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.25%
Singles /BIP	35.19%	÷0.983	×0.820	—	×1.022	30.01%
Doubles /BIP	9.26%	÷0.971	×0.720	—	×1.022	7.02%
Triples /BIP	3.70%	÷1.034	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.48%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .376 → .257; ISO .141 → .091; BABIP .481 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 15 PAwOBA .257 → .159 (−98)K% 46.7% → 64.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	46.67%	÷0.978	×1.360	—	—	64.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.126	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.29%
HBP% /PA	6.67%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.46%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.016	×0.920	—	×1.050	15.85%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.065	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	16.67%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.050	13.85%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.917	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .257 → .159; ISO .154 → .081; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.5	1,019	26	26	198	267	328	+11	-1	0.3	0.4
/162	664	17	17	+7.1	-0.7	0.2	pk7: 0
#3Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0
#4Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5Johnnie LeMaster'75-'87 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,515 PA	5.3	3,515	22	94	218*	275*	313*	+37	-13	-3.1	-0.9
/162	664	4	18	+7.0	-2.4	-0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorgelys Mota (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	174/245/258	84	274	1	3	37%	6%	45	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→42	44→50	55	35	195/250/303	109	296	12	14	37%	5%	56	-1.9	203/253/327	124	287	14	19	33%	5%	62	-1.4	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	43→30	38→45	57→50	41	200/268/280	80	315	5	16	36%	8%	57	-1.8	210/268/332	122	313	12	13	35%	6%	69	-0.9	200/258/307	108	293	11	16	34%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	37	42→45	51→55	41	168/271/271	102	317	9	19	45%	10%	58	-1.7	190/287/296	106	336	11	16	42%	10%	70	-0.9	180/284/294	114	291	13	20	39%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Miguel Hiraldo 2023 · A	22	41→46	43→45	56→55	38	200/251/308	108	302	10	21	36%	6%	57	-1.8	216/263/319	103	337	10	20	37%	5%	63	-1.3	221/269/319	98	346	9	22	37%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→50	52→55	39	208/262/296	88	288	6	20	29%	5%	58	-1.7	210/270/340	130	291	14	23	31%	7%	72	-0.7	201/268/328	126	276	14	27	31%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Stanley Tucker 2024 · A	22	39	41→45	53→65	36	188/242/288	100	308	9	11	40%	6%	49	-2.4	187/256/270	83	274	7	23	32%	8%	50	-2.3	180/250/264	84	241	8	36	28%	8%	44	-1.3
✕Dasan Brown 2024 · A	22	42→40	39→40	52→60	39	197/268/280	84	303	7	21	35%	6%	58	-1.7	188/264/271	83	289	7	31	35%	8%	54	-2.0	172/256/247	75	267	7	41	35%	8%	43	-1.4
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	180/213/275	96	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/263/300	84	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Brayan Buelvas 2024 · AA	22	37→45	46→50	55	41	190/252/319	129	260	13	18	32%	7%	61	-1.5	204/265/326	122	293	11	16	32%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Alexander Suarez 2024 · A	22	38→36	41→45	54→55	30	185/237/283	98	306	9	15	41%	4%	47	-2.6	211/256/329	118	320	13	17	37%	4%	64	-1.3	213/248/353	139	307	18	27	36%	3%	63	-0.5
✕Ryan Spikes 2024 · A	21	36→30	42→45	53→55	35	175/239/277	101	299	10	17	42%	7%	45	-2.7	186/234/300	114	292	13	18	39%	5%	49	-2.4	181/223/300	119	274	14	22	38%	4%	42	-1.5
✕James Simmons 2008 · A	22	37	39→50	52→55	36	176/239/269	93	301	6	11	41%	7%	43	-2.8	192/243/283	91	330	7	16	41%	6%	48	-2.5	196/254/350	155	346	21	18	47%	6%	65	-0.5
✕E.J. Exposito 2024 · A	23	37→33	41→50	50→55	43	177/262/268	90	293	9	14	39%	9%	53	-2.1	189/246/321	132	265	16	17	34%	6%	59	-1.7	184/237/328	144	240	19	19	32%	6%	55	-1.5
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	300	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	208/308/324	116	294	11	13	30%	10%	84	+0.1	214/316/317	103	300	9	14	28%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Junior Perez 2024 · A	23	39→40	43→50	55	39	185/256/292	108	313	10	25	42%	8%	56	-1.9	183/253/316	133	294	14	24	40%	8%	60	-1.6	172/245/318	146	265	16	25	39%	8%	56	-1.4
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	40→38	45→50	54→50	38	199/264/327	128	286	12	13	34%	6%	67	-1.1	211/271/364	153	307	18	14	36%	6%	78	-0.3	204/267/368	165	294	22	15	37%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→50	51→45	37	182/262/286	105	304	11	11	41%	7%	57	-1.8	200/264/310	110	285	13	7	33%	6%	63	-1.4	188/246/284	96	261	13	5	32%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Jordyn Adams 2022 · A	22	40→46	40→45	52→60	36	186/245/269	83	325	8	16	43%	7%	46	-2.6	207/266/306	99	317	8	29	35%	7%	62	-1.4	210/270/327	118	310	11	32	34%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9

Jorgelys Mota

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps