E.J. Exposito — OGILVIE

E.J. ExpositoSS Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AA HR +5%H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .246 / .332

PA320

HR9

SB10

K%34

BB%5

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

EYE

39↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$-1.0M	-$8M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	114	100	18	2	0	2	11	36	3	2	3	.180	.281	.260	.541	.080	.258	32	10	.259	56	-6	-1	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2023	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	449	396	59	12	1	6	40	195	6	23	5	.149	.238	.230	.467	.081	.262	43	9	.218	25	-38	+3	+0	+5	+13	-1.8
2024	23	A+	Rome Emperors	477	444	83	21	4	14	24	154	3	31	8	.187	.234	.347	.580	.160	.246	32	5	.247	47	-28	+3	+0	+5	+14	-0.7
2025	24	AA	2 teams	388	358	66	10	1	12	16	128	8	11	2	.184	.236	.318	.554	.134	.241	33	4	.240	42	-25	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	53	47	10	2	0	3	4	22	1	2	0	.213	.288	.447	.735	.234	.304	42	8	.294	83	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	DET	267	247	49	10	1	8	15	92	3	8	2	.198	.253	.344	.597	.146	.275	34	6	.265	61	-12	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
TOT	25	MLB	DET	320	294	59	12	1	11	19	114	4	10	2	.201	.259	.361	.619	.160	.281	36	6	.270	65	-13	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	DET	354	324	67	13	2	11	23	103	4	10	2	.207	.268	.361	.629	.154	.262	29	6	.277	70	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2028	27	MLB 26%	DET	381	349	73	14	2	12	25	109	4	10	2	.209	.270	.364	.634	.155	.265	29	7	.281	73	-12	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.5
2029	28	MLB 38%	DET	396	361	76	15	2	12	27	113	5	9	2	.211	.275	.363	.638	.152	.266	29	7	.282	74	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.4
2030	29	MLB 47%	DET	397	361	76	15	2	12	28	114	5	8	1	.211	.277	.363	.640	.152	.266	29	7	.281	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.3
2031	30	MLB 56%	DET	396	361	74	15	2	11	28	115	4	8	1	.205	.270	.349	.619	.144	.264	29	7	.278	71	-13	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.2
2032	31	MLB 66%	DET	385	351	72	14	2	11	27	113	4	6	0	.205	.270	.350	.620	.145	.262	29	7	.274	68	-14	+1	-3	+4	+11	-0.1
2033	32	MLB 84%	DET	369	336	66	13	1	10	26	110	4	4	0	.196	.262	.330	.593	.134	.261	30	7	.269	64	-15	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.3
2034	33	MLB	DET	341	311	61	12	1	9	23	104	4	3	0	.196	.260	.328	.588	.132	.259	30	7	.264	60	-15	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.6
2035	34	MLB	DET	298	273	51	10	1	7	20	94	3	2	0	.187	.250	.308	.558	.121	.257	32	7	.257	55	-15	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5012	4572	891	176	22	137	333	1580	60	135	28	.195	.259	.333	.592	.138	.261	32	7	.263	60	-229	+16	-20	+54	+142	-3.8
/ 162G	—			650	593	116	23	3	18	43	205	8	18	4	.196	.259	.336	.595	.140	.261	32	7	.263	60	-30	+2	-3	+7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	114	94	22	3	0	3	17	26	3	2	3	.234	.368	.362	.730	.128	.292	23	15	.339	118	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	449	375	78	19	1	8	61	136	6	23	5	.208	.328	.328	.656	.120	.294	30	14	.300	88	-6	+3	—	—	+13	0.9
2024	23	A+	Rome Emperors	477	424	101	29	4	13	44	115	3	31	8	.238	.314	.417	.732	.179	.292	24	9	.322	104	+2	+3	—	—	+14	1.9
2025	24	AA	Columbus Clingstones	232	214	47	7	1	5	10	56	3	6	2	.220	.264	.332	.596	.112	.266	24	4	.263	59	-11	+0	—	—	+7	-0.4
2025	24	A+	Rome Emperors	156	134	36	6	1	7	16	42	5	5	0	.269	.368	.485	.853	.216	.337	27	10	.376	146	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
E.J. Exposito (OGILVIE)	25	40	40	50	20	.195/.246/.332	.137	.272	9	9	34%	5%	57	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	36→35	45	51→55	38	.187/.245/.306	.118	.262	14	14	33%	6%	50	-1.8	.203/.276/.332	.129	.299	15	15	35%	8%	69	-0.4	.230/.309/.359	.129	.323	13	18	30%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Christian Koss 2023 · AA	25	44→45	48→50	50	35	.223/.264/.361	.138	.300	16	11	31%	4%	70	-0.3	.226/.272/.348	.122	.298	12	15	27%	5%	71	-0.3	.231/.280/.347	.116	.296	10	18	25%	5%	70	-0.1
✕Eduardo Diaz 2022 · AA	25	40→45	49→50	51→50	37	.210/.257/.356	.146	.277	18	13	31%	5%	67	-0.5	.210/.256/.344	.134	.296	14	13	33%	5%	63	-0.8	.206/.250/.329	.123	.291	11	14	32%	4%	53	-1.2
✕José Barrero 2023 · MLB	25	40→47	46→50	50→55	35	.201/.252/.326	.125	.298	15	14	37%	5%	56	-1.3	.197/.259/.343	.146	.290	18	20	37%	6%	66	-0.6	.186/.254/.339	.153	.266	19	24	36%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	37→40	46→50	51→50	38	.193/.251/.319	.126	.276	14	14	35%	6%	55	-1.4	.200/.261/.341	.141	.304	17	11	38%	7%	65	-0.7	.192/.258/.339	.147	.301	18	10	40%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Jalen Miller 2022 · AA	25	36→43	48→45	48→50	40	.193/.242/.327	.135	.252	16	14	31%	6%	53	-1.5	.206/.270/.345	.139	.284	15	15	31%	8%	69	-0.4	.194/.270/.327	.133	.262	12	20	29%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Jeudy Valdez 2014 · AA	25	41→45	46→50	49→55	35	.210/.247/.342	.132	.278	13	16	30%	4%	58	-1.2	.205/.251/.309	.104	.272	9	12	27%	5%	51	-1.7	.185/.236/.256	.070	.241	6	9	25%	6%	30	-1.5
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	49→50	52→55	41	.194/.257/.337	.143	.263	18	19	33%	7%	63	-0.9	.184/.262/.320	.136	.261	17	22	35%	8%	61	-1.0	.178/.268/.330	.152	.242	18	26	33%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→50	54→60	37	.202/.257/.328	.126	.297	13	21	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.281/.332	.127	.308	11	27	35%	7%	71	-0.3	.190/.283/.327	.137	.290	12	39	35%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Kevin Smith 2021 · AA	25	39→45	51→55	50	35	.206/.250/.363	.157	.286	19	14	35%	5%	66	-0.6	.207/.260/.367	.160	.286	19	15	33%	6%	71	-0.3	.203/.254/.364	.161	.273	21	15	33%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Derrick Mitchell 2012 · AA	25	43→46	47→50	50→55	39	.217/.266/.355	.138	.286	15	17	29%	5%	70	-0.3	.209/.259/.338	.129	.268	14	15	27%	6%	63	-0.9	.186/.240/.307	.122	.232	14	15	26%	6%	46	-0.9
✕Hutton Moyer 2018 · AA	25	41→42	45→50	52→50	36	.206/.257/.333	.128	.294	13	13	34%	5%	61	-1.0	.203/.250/.330	.127	.320	14	16	39%	5%	56	-1.3	.157/.192/.303	.146	.247	21	22	46%	4%	24	-0.9
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	51→50	44	.199/.282/.323	.124	.278	13	13	32%	8%	70	-0.3	.204/.293/.301	.097	.284	9	11	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.196/.289/.271	.075	.275	6	10	28%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Max Burt 2023 · AAA	26	39	46→45	54→55	36	.202/.252/.327	.125	.285	14	17	34%	5%	57	-1.2	.190/.247/.303	.113	.282	13	22	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.172/.233/.265	.093	.260	10	26	36%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Corey Toups 2018 · AAA	25	44→47	43→45	55→50	40	.212/.271/.329	.117	.297	10	17	31%	6%	65	-0.7	.203/.266/.307	.104	.321	10	15	37%	7%	58	-1.2	.177/.247/.258	.081	.300	9	19	41%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	47→40	48→55	41	.209/.268/.341	.133	.288	15	14	32%	7%	68	-0.5	.231/.302/.338	.107	.302	9	28	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.241/.322/.332	.091	.312	6	48	22%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Taylor Featherston 2015 · AA	25	44→45	48→50	51→50	39	.225/.272/.373	.148	.289	16	12	28%	5%	77	+0.1	.207/.255/.337	.130	.273	14	11	29%	5%	61	-1.0	.190/.243/.306	.116	.257	12	11	30%	5%	45	-1.1
✕Jesus Valdez 2023 · AA	25	43	47→45	52→50	37	.215/.265/.345	.130	.307	16	12	34%	6%	67	-0.5	.203/.238/.329	.126	.296	14	7	35%	4%	51	-1.7	.194/.231/.312	.118	.279	14	4	35%	4%	41	-1.0
✕Kyle Datres 2021 · A	25	41→43	48→50	51→55	42	.208/.274/.354	.146	.273	15	15	29%	6%	74	-0.1	.211/.290/.356	.145	.288	17	21	31%	8%	82	+0.5	.206/.292/.349	.143	.282	18	27	32%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA	26	40→43	44→45	48→50	36	.203/.250/.319	.116	.288	12	9	33%	5%	53	-1.5	.216/.261/.332	.116	.297	11	10	30%	5%	62	-0.9	.216/.262/.331	.115	.289	11	10	28%	5%	58	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)