James Simmons
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 25 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 238 | .259/.316/.486 | 13 | 4 | 59 | — | .196/.244/.359 |
| 2013 | 27 | AAAAcereros del … | 226 | .267/.359/.523 | 14 | 12 | 78 | — | .209/.269/.388 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAAAcereros del … | 39 | .273/.385/.333 | 0 | 2 | 68 | — | .229/.308/.286 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 145 | 126 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 278 | 364 | 389 | 753 | 111 | 366 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 202 | 176 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 64 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 193 | 294 | 341 | 634 | 148 | 282 | 32 | 10 | 288 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 104 | 91 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 282 | 319 | 600 | 132 | 286 | 34 | 11 | 271 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 386 | 354 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 132 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 232 | 279 | 325 | 603 | 93 | 352 | 34 | 6 | 266 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 286 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 85 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 252 | 342 | 367 | 709 | 115 | 342 | 26 | 9 | 318 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 361 | 317 | 80 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 112 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 252 | 340 | 448 | 788 | 196 | 351 | 31 | 10 | 348 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 62 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 279 | 386 | 665 | 158 | 345 | 40 | 5 | 292 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 176 | 159 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 270 | 329 | 522 | 851 | 252 | 371 | 34 | 7 | 365 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 226 | 195 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 96 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 267 | 359 | 523 | 882 | 256 | 437 | 42 | 12 | 381 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 39 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 333 | 718 | 61 | 450 | 33 | 15 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 145 | 132 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 266 | 288 | 554 | 83 | 298 | 33 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 202 | 183 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 86 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 148 | 224 | 251 | 475 | 104 | 265 | 43 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 104 | 95 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 184 | 200 | 384 | 84 | 223 | 48 | 7 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 386 | 362 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 177 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 188 | 220 | 262 | 483 | 75 | 329 | 46 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 297 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 114 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 293 | 567 | 88 | 308 | 34 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 361 | 329 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 155 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 191 | 259 | 328 | 587 | 137 | 320 | 43 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 62 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 213 | 276 | 489 | 103 | 319 | 50 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 176 | 162 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 82 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 254 | 389 | 643 | 185 | 337 | 47 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 226 | 206 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 119 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 209 | 269 | 388 | 657 | 180 | 402 | 53 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 39 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 229 | 308 | 286 | 593 | 57 | 397 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 145 | 132 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 266 | 288 | 554 | 83 | 310 | 33 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants | — | 145 | 126 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 278 | 364 | 389 | 753 | 111 | 366 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 278 | 40 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 136 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 144 | 217 | 248 | 465 | 104 | 262 | 44 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 267 | 51 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 99 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 191 | 289 | 333 | 623 | 142 | 283 | 32 | 10 | 282 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 386 | 362 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 177 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 188 | 220 | 262 | 483 | 75 | 350 | 46 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 386 | 354 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 132 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 232 | 279 | 325 | 603 | 93 | 352 | 34 | 6 | 266 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 297 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 114 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 293 | 567 | 88 | 319 | 34 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 286 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 85 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 252 | 342 | 367 | 709 | 115 | 342 | 26 | 9 | 318 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 361 | 329 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 155 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 191 | 259 | 328 | 587 | 137 | 325 | 43 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 361 | 317 | 80 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 112 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 252 | 340 | 448 | 788 | 196 | 351 | 31 | 10 | 348 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 238 | 220 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 195 | 244 | 359 | 603 | 164 | 340 | 47 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 238 | 216 | 56 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 85 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 259 | 316 | 486 | 802 | 227 | 364 | 36 | 7 | 346 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 226 | 206 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 119 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 209 | 269 | 388 | 657 | 180 | 418 | 53 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA RAW | Acereros del Norte | — | 226 | 195 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 96 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 267 | 359 | 523 | 882 | 256 | 437 | 42 | 12 | 381 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 39 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 229 | 308 | 286 | 593 | 57 | 400 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA RAW | Acereros del Norte | — | 39 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 333 | 718 | 61 | 450 | 33 | 15 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 145 | 133 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 266 | 286 | 551 | 83 | 298 | 33 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 277 | 40 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 136 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 144 | 217 | 249 | 466 | 105 | 251 | 44 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 386 | 368 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 177 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 185 | 220 | 258 | 478 | 73 | 329 | 46 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 331 | 300 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 114 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 203 | 274 | 290 | 564 | 87 | 308 | 34 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 361 | 328 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 155 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 192 | 259 | 329 | 588 | 137 | 320 | 43 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 238 | 222 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 194 | 244 | 356 | 599 | 162 | 332 | 47 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 226 | 207 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 119 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 208 | 269 | 386 | 656 | 179 | 402 | 53 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 39 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 229 | 308 | 286 | 593 | 57 | 397 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2032 | 1859 | 353 | 55 | 19 | 40 | 122 | 877 | 23 | 93 | 31 | 190 | 249 | 304 | 553 | 115 | 329 | 43 | 6 | 240 | 48 | -125 | +6 | +0 | -22 | +44 | -9.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 113 | 18 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 281 | 7 | 30 | 10 | 190 | 248 | 306 | 554 | 116 | 329 | 43 | 6 | 240 | 48 | -40 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAAcereros del Norte · 39 PAwOBA .328 → .268 (−60)K% 33.3% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.063 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 10.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 32.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 113, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .268; ISO .061 → .047; BABIP .450 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAAcereros del Norte · 226 PAwOBA .371 → .284 (−87)K% 42.5% → 52.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.48% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 52.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.32% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 31.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.14% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 10.90% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .371 → .284; ISO .256 → .185; BABIP .437 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+San Jose Giants · 176 PAwOBA .354 → .272 (−82)K% 34.1% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.09% | ÷0.981 | ×1.340 | — | — | 46.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.39% | ÷0.926 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷0.991 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.10% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 9.26% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 96, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .354 → .272; ISO .252 → .192; BABIP .371 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 62 PAwOBA .284 → .211 (−73)K% 40.3% → 50.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.32% | ÷1.027 | ×1.290 | — | — | 50.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.84% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.960 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 29.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.112 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 6.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 92, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .211; ISO .158 → .097; BABIP .345 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+San Jose Giants · 361 PAwOBA .339 → .259 (−80)K% 31.0% → 42.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.02% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 42.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.97% | ÷0.990 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.93% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | ×1.045 | ×0.978 | 21.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×0.978 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.085 | ×0.760 | ×1.045 | ×0.978 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 5.18% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 117, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .339 → .259; ISO .196 → .146; BABIP .351 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAugusta GreenJackets · 331 PAwOBA .312 → .249 (−63)K% 25.7% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.980 | 22.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.030 | ×0.980 | 7.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.030 | ×0.980 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .312 → .249; ISO .115 → .091; BABIP .342 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAugusta GreenJackets · 386 PAwOBA .261 → .204 (−57)K% 34.2% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.20% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 45.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 3.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 26.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .261 → .204; ISO .093 → .070; BABIP .352 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2007 AAugusta GreenJackets · 202 PAwOBA .282 → .219 (−63)K% 31.7% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 42.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 16.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | — | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | — | 4.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | — | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .219; ISO .148 → .117; BABIP .282 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).