Ryan Spikes — OGILVIE

Ryan Spikes2B Montgomery Biscuits

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs AA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION204 act + 136 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .237 / .331

PA136

HR4

SB6

K%39

BB%4

BABIP282

ISO142

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	42	7	2	0	1	4	19	1	4	1	167	255	286	541	119	273	40	9	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	40	10	3	0	1	6	13	1	4	1	250	362	400	762	150	346	28	13	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	299	51	7	2	8	17	154	8	17	5	171	235	288	522	117	309	47	5	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	290	66	11	3	10	26	105	8	17	5	228	309	390	698	162	316	32	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	657	607	85	14	6	9	39	296	8	32	12	140	202	227	429	87	249	45	6	191	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	657	577	131	20	6	17	68	202	8	32	12	227	317	371	687	144	316	31	10	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	313	50	10	1	5	16	150	6	14	4	160	215	246	461	86	276	44	5	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	306	67	11	2	7	23	102	6	14	4	219	287	337	623	118	297	30	7	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	309	289	58	6	2	12	11	106	6	15	7	201	245	360	605	159	264	34	4	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	309	285	70	9	3	13	15	83	6	15	7	246	297	435	732	189	297	27	5	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	TB	—	204	192	37	8	2	6	8	88	3	16	3	193	236	349	585	156	316	43	4	249	49	-12	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
YTD	23	AA	TB	—	204	188	45	10	3	7	12	68	3	16	3	239	296	436	732	197	336	33	6	321	104	+1	+2	+0	+1	+6	1.0
ROS	23	AA	TB	2%	136	127	24	4	1	4	6	53	2	6	2	189	237	331	568	142	283	39	4	247	47	-8	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	TB	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						287	33	0	237	40	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	TB	—	207	195	37	8	2	6	8	89	3	16	3	190	233	344	577	154	310	43	4	249	49	-12	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
TOT	23	AA	TB	—	340	319	61	12	3	10	14	141	5	22	5	191	237	342	578	150	302	41	4	248	48	-20	+2	+0	+1	+10	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TB	31%	388	362	71	12	3	12	18	145	5	16	4	196	244	345	589	149	284	37	5	260	58	-19	+2	+0	+1	+11	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	TB	45%	428	398	80	14	3	14	22	154	5	17	4	201	252	357	609	156	286	36	5	270	65	-17	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	TB	51%	453	420	86	15	3	15	24	160	6	18	5	205	258	362	620	157	286	35	5	275	69	-16	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.0
2030	27	MLB	TB	53%	462	427	87	15	3	15	26	162	6	18	5	204	259	358	618	155	286	35	6	277	70	-16	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.1
2031	28	MLB	TB	53%	463	428	87	15	3	15	26	163	6	18	5	203	259	357	616	154	285	35	6	276	69	-16	+2	-1	+2	+13	-0.1
2032	29	MLB	TB	53%	456	421	86	15	3	15	26	161	6	16	4	204	260	361	622	157	284	35	6	274	68	-17	+2	-1	+2	+13	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	TB	31%	120	111	23	4	1	4	6	45	2	5	1	207	261	369	630	162	288	38	5	252	51	-7	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	TB	45%	191	177	36	6	2	6	10	69	2	8	2	203	254	362	616	158	289	36	5	261	58	-9	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	TB	51%	231	214	44	8	2	7	12	82	3	9	2	206	258	360	617	154	290	35	5	266	62	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	TB	53%	243	224	47	8	2	8	14	85	3	10	3	210	266	371	636	161	290	35	6	268	63	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
2031	28	MLB	TB	53%	247	228	47	8	2	8	14	87	3	9	2	206	261	364	625	158	289	35	6	267	62	-11	+1	-0	+1	+7	-0.2
2032	29	MLB	TB	53%	240	221	46	8	2	8	14	85	3	8	2	208	265	371	636	163	288	35	6	265	61	-11	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1275	1178	243	42	11	41	70	454	16	49	12	206	260	365	625	159	293	36	5	264	60	-57	+5	-1	+5	+36	-1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	124	21	6	21	36	231	8	25	6	206	261	366	627	160	293	36	6	264	60	-29	+3	-1	+2	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	4468	4133	772	129	30	125	235	1723	65	191	58	187	242	323	565	136	280	39	5	249	49	-258	+15	-2	+16	+127	-10.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	112	19	4	18	34	251	9	28	8	186	240	321	561	135	280	39	5	249	49	-38	+2	-0	+2	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	40	10	3	0	1	6	13	1	4	1	250	362	400	762	150	346	28	13	346	123	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	290	66	11	3	10	26	105	8	17	5	228	309	390	698	162	316	32	8	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+9	1.0
2023	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	501	441	95	15	6	10	51	154	5	28	8	215	303	345	648	129	304	31	10	293	83	-10	+2	—	—	+14	0.7
2023	20	INTL	Perth Heat	—	156	136	36	5	0	7	17	48	3	4	4	265	359	456	815	191	358	31	11	364	137	+6	-1	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	306	67	11	2	7	23	102	6	14	4	219	287	337	623	118	297	30	7	277	70	-12	+1	—	—	+10	-0.1
2025	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	58	53	10	0	2	1	4	16	1	4	1	189	259	321	579	132	250	28	7	262	58	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	251	232	60	9	1	12	11	67	5	11	6	259	306	461	768	203	308	27	4	334	114	+4	-0	—	—	+7	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	6	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	16	25	252	281	387	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,277	41	49	204	255	361	+5	+3	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	22	26	204	255	361	+2.4	+1.6	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Spikes (OGILVIE)	23	40	55	50	20	191/237/342	150	302	10	22	41%	4%	48	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	187/250/311	124	262	15	19	34%	7%	53	-1.5	184/265/319	135	258	16	22	34%	8%	62	-0.9	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Edward Salcedo 2014 · AA	23	39→41	46→50	47→50	36	201/242/327	125	277	14	16	33%	5%	53	-1.5	194/244/303	109	255	11	13	28%	6%	47	-1.9	176/231/277	101	224	10	12	26%	6%	33	-1.7
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	45	52→65	39	191/248/311	120	257	14	21	31%	6%	51	-1.7	219/287/347	128	293	11	39	27%	8%	77	+0.1	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Kevin Smith 2019 · A	23	42→43	47→55	53→50	36	214/256/352	138	292	15	15	32%	5%	65	-0.7	201/251/370	169	280	21	14	35%	5%	69	-0.4	200/251/358	158	270	20	15	33%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Jeudy Valdez 2013 · AA	24	40→43	47→50	50→55	34	206/242/343	136	275	15	16	31%	4%	56	-1.3	211/252/331	120	280	12	13	28%	4%	57	-1.2	207/248/321	114	269	11	13	27%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Monte Harrison 2019 · AA	23	44	47→50	53→60	32	211/262/346	136	339	15	18	41%	5%	66	-0.6	213/271/350	137	367	16	29	43%	6%	71	-0.3	196/262/328	132	349	17	41	46%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Michael Gettys 2019 · AA	23	38→48	50→55	50	31	194/241/340	147	320	19	16	44%	5%	56	-1.3	189/232/348	159	296	21	14	42%	5%	55	-1.4	169/211/328	159	253	21	15	42%	4%	38	-1.5
✕Angel Castillo 2012 · AAA	23	39→42	47→50	49→50	35	200/250/325	125	285	16	14	35%	5%	56	-1.3	194/243/312	118	282	14	13	35%	5%	50	-1.8	156/204/269	113	218	16	12	37%	4%	19	-2.0
✕Narciso Crook 2018 · A	23	38→44	43→55	48→50	34	191/236/299	108	292	11	9	37%	5%	43	-2.2	213/264/337	124	312	11	11	34%	5%	64	-0.8	198/275/352	154	301	19	15	38%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Rece Hinds 2023 · AA	22	37→41	49→60	50→55	33	187/244/331	144	313	17	14	44%	6%	55	-1.4	200/249/369	169	324	21	19	43%	5%	67	-0.5	203/259/391	188	291	25	20	38%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Melky Mesa 2010 · A	23	35→43	47→55	51→55	34	182/238/317	135	283	15	10	40%	6%	49	-1.8	207/263/362	155	306	18	18	37%	6%	71	-0.3	209/264/372	164	297	20	21	35%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Moisés Gómez 2022 · AA	23	32→42	46→60	44→45	31	162/221/283	121	297	14	7	48%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/379	182	304	26	8	42%	6%	70	-0.3	190/242/378	188	276	28	6	41%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Jerry Gil 2006 · MLB	23	41→37	50→60	50→55	33	217/245/364	148	290	18	17	32%	3%	63	-0.8	210/238/384	174	273	22	10	32%	3%	66	-0.6	190/214/365	175	243	22	8	33%	2%	49	-1.1
✕Julio Perez 2009 · A	23	40→41	45→50	47→50	32	205/239/327	122	289	13	12	34%	3%	51	-1.7	215/251/349	134	284	14	11	29%	4%	62	-0.9	210/247/352	141	269	15	10	28%	4%	59	-0.5
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	37→44	48→60	47→50	38	187/249/329	142	292	15	9	40%	7%	56	-1.3	206/271/377	171	301	20	7	37%	8%	79	+0.3	205/271/397	192	291	25	7	37%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	56	-1.3	200/251/341	141	277	15	11	32%	5%	61	-1.0	192/239/333	141	232	19	10	27%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Brandon Downes 2016 · A	23	39→36	44→55	49→50	34	197/240/316	119	292	11	12	36%	4%	49	-1.8	196/248/347	151	297	17	11	38%	5%	61	-1.0	183/239/344	161	276	20	10	40%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Gabriel Cancel 2021 · AA	24	39→48	50→55	50	35	204/250/353	149	282	18	11	34%	5%	64	-0.8	192/246/327	135	302	16	16	40%	6%	55	-1.4	171/235/307	135	264	17	16	40%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→55	54→45	40	191/252/295	104	290	10	12	36%	7%	49	-1.8	204/267/315	111	307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	156/215/246	90	226	9	0	34%	7%	18	-0.7