Ryan Spikes
2B Montgomery Biscuits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+TB | 343 | .219/.287/.337 | 7 | 14 | 26 | — | .166/.218/.258 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+TB | 309 | .246/.297/.435 | 13 | 15 | 58 | — | .200/.242/.365 |
| 2026 | 23 | AATB | 302 | .221/.276/.368 | 7 | 21 | 44 | — | .189/.233/.302 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBTB | 4 | .190/.231/.313 | 0 | 0 | 50 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBTB | 67 | .195/.239/.328 | 2 | 2 | 56 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBTB | 119 | .199/.244/.338 | 3 | 4 | 61 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 362 | 400 | 762 | 150 | 346 | 28 | 13 | 346 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 326 | 290 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 105 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 228 | 309 | 390 | 698 | 162 | 316 | 32 | 8 | 312 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 501 | 441 | 95 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 154 | 5 | 28 | 8 | 215 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 129 | 304 | 31 | 10 | 293 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 156 | 136 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 48 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 265 | 359 | 456 | 815 | 191 | 358 | 31 | 11 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 306 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 219 | 287 | 337 | 623 | 118 | 297 | 30 | 7 | 277 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 58 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 259 | 321 | 579 | 132 | 250 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 251 | 232 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 67 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 259 | 306 | 461 | 768 | 203 | 308 | 27 | 4 | 334 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 280 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 100 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 221 | 276 | 368 | 644 | 146 | 318 | 33 | 6 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 119 | 278 | 40 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 326 | 297 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 145 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 178 | 247 | 290 | 536 | 111 | 305 | 44 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 501 | 458 | 71 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 212 | 5 | 28 | 8 | 155 | 223 | 247 | 470 | 92 | 260 | 42 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 314 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 140 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 166 | 218 | 258 | 476 | 92 | 255 | 41 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 58 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 224 | 296 | 520 | 130 | 222 | 33 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 251 | 236 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 86 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 208 | 246 | 381 | 627 | 174 | 260 | 34 | 3 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 285 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 189 | 233 | 302 | 534 | 112 | 306 | 40 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 119 | 273 | 40 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 362 | 400 | 762 | 150 | 346 | 28 | 13 | 346 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 326 | 297 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 145 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 178 | 247 | 290 | 536 | 111 | 313 | 44 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 326 | 290 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 105 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 228 | 309 | 390 | 698 | 162 | 316 | 32 | 8 | 312 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 657 | 600 | 93 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 279 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 155 | 225 | 248 | 473 | 93 | 267 | 42 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 657 | 577 | 131 | 20 | 6 | 17 | 68 | 202 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 227 | 317 | 371 | 687 | 144 | 316 | 31 | 10 | 310 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 314 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 140 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 166 | 218 | 258 | 476 | 92 | 266 | 41 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 306 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 219 | 287 | 337 | 623 | 118 | 297 | 30 | 7 | 277 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 290 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 105 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 197 | 239 | 355 | 594 | 159 | 256 | 34 | 3 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 309 | 285 | 70 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 83 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 246 | 297 | 435 | 732 | 189 | 297 | 27 | 5 | 321 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 285 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 189 | 233 | 302 | 534 | 112 | 310 | 40 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 280 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 100 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 221 | 276 | 368 | 644 | 146 | 318 | 33 | 6 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 119 | 278 | 40 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 326 | 296 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 145 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 179 | 247 | 291 | 537 | 111 | 305 | 44 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 657 | 598 | 93 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 279 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 156 | 225 | 249 | 474 | 94 | 260 | 42 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 319 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 140 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 163 | 218 | 254 | 472 | 91 | 255 | 41 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 290 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 105 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 197 | 239 | 355 | 594 | 159 | 253 | 34 | 3 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 283 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 191 | 233 | 304 | 536 | 113 | 306 | 40 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 343 | 319 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 140 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 163 | 218 | 254 | 472 | 91 | 255 | 41 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 290 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 105 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 197 | 239 | 355 | 594 | 159 | 253 | 34 | 3 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 302 | 283 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 191 | 233 | 304 | 536 | 113 | 306 | 40 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 2% | 352 | 331 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 128 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 189 | 230 | 313 | 543 | 125 | 274 | 36 | 4 | 242 | 50 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 231 | 313 | 544 | 123 | 277 | 25 | 0 | 242 | 50 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 31% | 217 | 203 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 78 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 194 | 237 | 329 | 566 | 135 | 275 | 36 | 4 | 251 | 56 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 45% | 268 | 251 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 94 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 243 | 339 | 582 | 141 | 276 | 35 | 4 | 258 | 61 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 31% | 67 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 239 | 328 | 566 | 133 | 278 | 36 | 4 | 251 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 45% | 119 | 111 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 244 | 338 | 582 | 139 | 279 | 35 | 4 | 258 | 61 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 186 | 174 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 249 | 345 | 593 | 144 | 288 | 35 | 4 | 256 | 43 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 608 | 122 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 231 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 201 | 247 | 342 | 589 | 141 | 289 | 36 | 4 | 256 | 43 | -32 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2649 | 2451 | 436 | 71 | 20 | 58 | 134 | 1048 | 41 | 128 | 38 | 178 | 233 | 294 | 527 | 116 | 278 | 40 | 5 | 231 | 43 | -35 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 106 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 33 | 257 | 10 | 31 | 9 | 176 | 231 | 291 | 523 | 115 | 275 | 40 | 5 | 231 | 43 | -34 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 302 PAwOBA .279 → .233 (−46)K% 33.1% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 21.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.20% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .279 → .233; ISO .146 → .119; BABIP .318 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 251 PAwOBA .328 → .264 (−64)K% 26.7% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.69% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.38% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 6.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .328 → .264; ISO .203 → .173; BABIP .308 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 58 PAwOBA .255 → .207 (−48)K% 27.6% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 4.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.922 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .207; ISO .132 → .105; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 343 PAwOBA .273 → .207 (−66)K% 29.7% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.74% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 40.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.71% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 19.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.39% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.43% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .273 → .207; ISO .118 → .093; BABIP .297 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 501 PAwOBA .288 → .209 (−78)K% 30.7% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.74% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.18% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.23% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.09% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 2.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.48% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.67% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .288 → .209; ISO .129 → .094; BABIP .304 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 326 PAwOBA .306 → .239 (−67)K% 32.2% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.21% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×1.045 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.045 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.62% | ÷1.053 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×1.045 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.943 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 4.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 94, 2B 113, 3B 111, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .306 → .239; ISO .162 → .120; BABIP .316 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Rays · 47 PAwOBA .338 → .234 (−104)K% 27.7% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.66% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 3.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 101, 3B 113, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .234; ISO .150 → .104; BABIP .346 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .