Ryan Spikes — OGILVIE

Ryan Spikes2B Montgomery Biscuits

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs AA HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION299 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .100 / .100

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%4

BABIP293

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	40	10	3	0	1	6	13	1	4	1	250	362	400	762	150	346	28	13	346	121	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	290	66	11	3	10	26	105	8	17	5	228	309	390	698	162	316	32	8	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.8
2023	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	501	441	95	15	6	10	51	154	5	28	8	215	303	345	648	129	304	31	10	293	85	-9	+2	—	—	+11	0.4
2023	20	INTL	Perth Heat	—	156	136	36	5	0	7	17	48	3	4	4	265	359	456	815	191	358	31	11	364	132	+6	-1	—	—	+3	0.9
2024	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	306	67	11	2	7	23	102	6	14	4	219	287	337	623	118	297	30	7	277	73	-11	+1	—	—	+7	-0.2
2025	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	58	53	10	0	2	1	4	16	1	4	1	189	259	321	579	132	250	28	7	262	63	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	251	232	60	9	1	12	11	67	5	11	6	259	306	461	768	203	308	27	4	334	112	+4	-0	—	—	+5	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	42	7	2	0	1	4	19	1	4	1	167	255	286	541	119	272	40	9	230	42	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	299	51	7	2	8	17	152	8	17	5	171	235	288	522	117	296	47	5	228	40	-23	+1	—	—	+7	-1.5
2023	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	501	462	68	11	4	7	31	222	5	28	8	147	209	234	443	87	255	44	6	199	21	-47	+2	—	—	+11	-3.5
2024	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	313	52	9	1	5	16	143	6	14	4	166	221	249	470	83	261	42	5	206	26	-30	+1	—	—	+7	-2.2
2025	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	58	54	9	0	2	1	3	19	1	4	1	167	224	296	520	130	218	33	5	203	24	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	251	235	49	6	1	10	8	88	5	11	6	209	250	370	620	162	270	35	3	262	63	-11	-0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	42	7	2	0	1	4	19	1	4	1	167	255	286	541	119	273	40	9	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	47	40	10	3	0	1	6	13	1	4	1	250	362	400	762	150	346	28	13	346	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	299	51	7	2	8	17	152	8	17	5	171	235	288	522	117	305	47	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	290	66	11	3	10	26	105	8	17	5	228	309	390	698	162	316	32	8	312	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	657	605	90	14	6	9	41	291	8	32	12	149	213	236	449	88	263	44	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	657	577	131	20	6	17	68	202	8	32	12	227	317	371	687	144	316	31	10	310	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	313	52	9	1	5	16	143	6	14	4	166	221	249	470	83	276	42	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	306	67	11	2	7	23	102	6	14	4	219	287	337	623	118	297	30	7	277	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	309	290	57	6	2	11	10	107	6	15	7	197	239	345	583	148	263	35	3	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	309	285	70	9	3	13	15	83	6	15	7	246	297	435	732	189	297	27	5	321	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	42	7	2	0	1	4	19	1	4	1	167	255	286	541	119	272	40	9	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	326	298	51	7	2	8	17	152	8	17	5	171	235	289	523	117	296	47	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	657	603	90	14	6	9	41	291	8	32	12	149	213	237	450	88	255	44	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	318	52	9	1	5	16	143	6	14	4	164	221	245	466	82	261	42	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	309	290	57	6	2	11	10	107	6	15	7	197	239	345	583	148	260	35	3	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	657	603	90	14	6	9	41	291	8	32	12	149	213	237	450	88	255	44	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	343	318	52	9	1	5	16	143	6	14	4	164	221	245	466	82	261	42	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	309	290	57	6	2	11	10	107	6	15	7	197	239	345	583	148	260	35	3	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	TB	—	299	282	53	10	3	5	12	121	4	21	3	188	232	298	529	110	308	40	4	230	42	-21	+3	+0	+1	+6	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	TB	—	299	277	62	12	4	7	17	99	4	21	3	224	279	372	650	148	322	33	6	289	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	TB	2%	10	10	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	100	100	100	200		284	40	0	240	49	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	TB	—	309	292	54	10	3	5	12	125	4	21	3	185	227	291	518	106	302	40	4	230	42	-21	+3	+0	+1	+7	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	31%	385	359	71	12	3	10	18	137	5	16	3	198	246	331	578	134	285	36	5	256	60	-19	+2	+0	+1	+8	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	45%	426	397	81	14	3	12	21	147	5	17	4	204	253	345	598	141	286	35	5	267	67	-17	+2	+0	+2	+9	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	51%	452	420	88	15	4	14	24	153	5	18	4	210	261	364	625	155	286	34	5	274	72	-15	+2	+0	+2	+10	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	53%	461	427	89	15	4	14	25	155	6	19	4	208	262	361	623	152	286	34	5	275	72	-15	+2	+0	+2	+10	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	53%	462	427	88	15	3	14	26	156	6	18	4	206	261	354	615	148	286	34	6	274	72	-16	+2	-1	+2	+10	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	456	422	87	15	3	14	26	155	5	16	4	206	260	355	616	149	285	34	6	272	71	-16	+2	-1	+2	+10	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	31%	119	112	23	4	1	3	5	42	1	5	1	205	246	339	585	134	294	35	4	254	60	-6	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	45%	190	177	37	6	2	6	9	66	2	8	2	209	255	367	623	158	295	35	5	266	67	-7	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	51%	230	213	46	8	2	7	12	78	3	9	2	216	268	371	638	155	295	34	5	273	72	-8	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	53%	242	224	48	8	2	8	13	81	3	10	2	214	267	375	642	161	295	33	5	274	72	-8	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	53%	246	227	48	8	2	8	14	83	3	10	2	211	266	370	636	159	295	34	6	273	72	-8	+1	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	240	222	47	8	2	7	13	82	3	9	2	212	265	360	625	149	294	34	5	271	71	-8	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1267	1175	249	42	11	39	66	432	15	51	11	212	263	366	629	154	296	34	5	270	55	-46	+6	-1	+5	+27	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	129	22	6	20	34	222	8	26	6	214	266	370	635	156	299	34	5	270	55	-23	+3	-1	+2	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4334	4011	762	124	31	112	228	1619	61	186	52	190	244	320	565	130	282	37	5	249	55	-98	+12	-2	+9	+57	-2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	115	19	5	17	34	243	9	28	8	191	245	324	569	133	283	37	5	249	55	-24	+3	-1	+2	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.9	1,274	38	50	207	256	355	+5	+3	-0.1	0.1
/162	664	20	26	+2.4	+1.6	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Spikes (OGILVIE)	23	40	55	50	20	187/231/302	115	284	7	15	38%	4%	49	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	185/248/306	121	260	15	19	34%	7%	56	-1.9	181/262/305	124	259	14	22	34%	8%	62	-1.4	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Pat Valaika 2016 · AA	23	42→47	41→55	51→50	36	208/244/310	102	291	8	15	31%	4%	54	-2.0	208/241/339	131	268	14	8	27%	4%	60	-1.6	216/259/347	131	284	17	3	30%	5%	67	-0.6
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Rece Hinds 2023 · AA	22	37→42	48→55	50→55	32	185/241/327	142	319	16	14	45%	6%	58	-1.7	201/251/362	161	322	19	19	41%	5%	70	-0.9	201/250/372	172	302	21	22	40%	5%	70	-0.7
✕Jerry Gil 2006 · MLB	23	41→38	48→60	50→55	33	216/243/354	138	286	16	17	31%	3%	64	-1.3	208/236/370	162	270	19	10	31%	3%	65	-1.2	188/212/350	161	241	19	8	31%	2%	50	-1.4
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→34	44→50	47→50	32	186/229/299	113	278	11	13	37%	4%	47	-2.6	195/241/315	120	305	12	12	38%	5%	55	-2.0	189/239/340	151	271	18	12	36%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Edward Salcedo 2014 · AA	23	40→41	45	47→50	38	204/246/322	118	274	13	16	30%	5%	58	-1.7	196/247/300	104	256	10	13	26%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/274	96	227	9	12	25%	6%	41	-1.7
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2014 · AAA	23	41→46	47→50	48→50	36	213/252/349	136	284	15	14	31%	4%	67	-1.1	222/272/366	144	281	17	13	27%	5%	78	-0.3	219/272/356	137	273	17	13	26%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Bryce Teodosio 2023 · AA	24	37→43	44→45	54→65	34	177/247/283	106	320	12	24	46%	7%	51	-2.3	195/256/292	97	313	8	27	38%	6%	55	-1.9	205/262/302	97	306	6	42	33%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	37→44	48→55	47→50	39	191/251/332	141	291	15	9	38%	7%	63	-1.4	204/270/356	152	296	17	7	35%	8%	76	-0.4	205/271/367	162	301	19	9	36%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Narciso Crook 2018 · A	23	38→43	43→50	48→50	34	193/237/303	109	291	11	9	37%	5%	51	-2.3	215/266/334	119	313	10	11	33%	5%	69	-0.9	206/268/351	145	302	15	14	35%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	37→47	48→55	48→55	42	197/259/341	144	266	16	12	32%	7%	68	-1.0	215/261/367	152	281	19	15	30%	5%	75	-0.5	224/265/381	157	284	20	15	28%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39→40	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/342	140	275	15	11	31%	5%	66	-1.1	193/247/331	138	257	15	11	30%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Julio Perez 2009 · A	23	40→41	45→50	47→50	32	205/239/327	122	289	13	12	34%	3%	57	-1.8	214/251/340	126	285	13	11	29%	4%	64	-1.3	209/248/339	129	270	13	10	27%	4%	61	-0.8
✕Monte Harrison 2019 · AA	23	44	46→50	52→60	33	208/262/336	128	337	14	18	41%	5%	68	-1.0	210/270/337	127	358	15	29	43%	6%	71	-0.8	192/260/311	120	338	15	41	45%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Bradlee Beesley 2022 · AA	24	40	44→45	55→60	37	196/257/315	119	306	11	20	38%	6%	61	-1.5	202/272/324	122	300	11	26	34%	7%	69	-0.9	194/271/322	129	285	11	34	34%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Jeudy Valdez 2013 · AA	24	41→45	45→50	50→55	36	208/244/333	125	273	13	16	29%	4%	60	-1.6	209/250/319	110	275	10	13	27%	4%	59	-1.7	204/246/308	104	265	9	13	26%	5%	52	-1.4
✕Kevin Smith 2019 · A	23	43→45	48→55	53→50	36	219/261/365	146	295	16	15	31%	4%	74	-0.6	201/250/356	155	280	18	14	34%	5%	68	-1.0	202/253/359	157	273	20	15	33%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Gabriel Cancel 2021 · AA	24	40→45	46→50	50	36	206/252/336	131	281	14	11	32%	5%	64	-1.3	193/247/318	125	300	14	16	38%	6%	58	-1.7	171/235/293	122	264	14	16	39%	7%	46	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps