Brandon Downes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A+WSH | 538 | .230/.306/.389 | 12 | 19 | 40 | — | .172/.228/.294 |
| 2017 | 24 | A+WSH | 300 | .245/.337/.471 | 13 | 2 | 74 | — | .194/.259/.392 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 247 | .201/.280/.338 | 6 | 6 | 28 | — | .155/.214/.256 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 188 | 169 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 308 | 364 | 485 | 849 | 178 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 367 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 437 | 391 | 98 | 29 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 115 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 315 | 448 | 763 | 197 | 316 | 26 | 7 | 330 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 538 | 478 | 110 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 170 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 230 | 306 | 389 | 695 | 159 | 323 | 32 | 8 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 300 | 261 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 70 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 245 | 337 | 471 | 808 | 226 | 283 | 23 | 10 | 353 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 191 | 168 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 277 | 310 | 586 | 119 | 295 | 36 | 9 | 265 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 56 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 291 | 431 | 722 | 196 | 294 | 29 | 5 | 314 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 188 | 173 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 59 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 225 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 121 | 299 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 437 | 403 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 158 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 184 | 231 | 318 | 549 | 134 | 260 | 36 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 538 | 494 | 85 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 230 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 172 | 228 | 294 | 522 | 121 | 277 | 43 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 300 | 273 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 99 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 194 | 259 | 392 | 651 | 198 | 237 | 33 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 191 | 174 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 85 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 144 | 207 | 224 | 432 | 80 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 56 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 236 | 365 | 602 | 173 | 252 | 41 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 188 | 173 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 59 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 225 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 121 | 322 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 188 | 169 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 308 | 364 | 485 | 849 | 178 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 367 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 437 | 403 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 158 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 184 | 231 | 318 | 549 | 134 | 268 | 36 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 437 | 391 | 98 | 29 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 115 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 315 | 448 | 763 | 197 | 316 | 26 | 7 | 330 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 538 | 494 | 85 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 230 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 172 | 228 | 294 | 522 | 121 | 287 | 43 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 538 | 478 | 110 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 170 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 230 | 306 | 389 | 695 | 159 | 323 | 32 | 8 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 300 | 273 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 99 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 194 | 259 | 392 | 651 | 198 | 245 | 33 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 300 | 261 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 70 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 245 | 337 | 471 | 808 | 226 | 283 | 23 | 10 | 353 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 227 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 108 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 154 | 210 | 256 | 465 | 101 | 261 | 44 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 219 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 85 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 137 | 295 | 34 | 9 | 276 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 188 | 175 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 59 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 223 | 272 | 343 | 615 | 120 | 299 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 437 | 409 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 158 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 181 | 231 | 313 | 544 | 132 | 260 | 36 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 538 | 497 | 85 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 230 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 171 | 228 | 292 | 520 | 121 | 277 | 43 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 300 | 273 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 99 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 194 | 259 | 392 | 651 | 198 | 237 | 33 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 229 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 108 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 153 | 210 | 253 | 463 | 100 | 256 | 44 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1710 | 1570 | 286 | 70 | 11 | 40 | 81 | 654 | 31 | 52 | 22 | 182 | 237 | 317 | 554 | 135 | 275 | 38 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -107 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +37 | -6.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 109 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 249 | 12 | 20 | 8 | 183 | 237 | 317 | 554 | 134 | 277 | 38 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -41 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAMississippi Braves · 191 PAwOBA .258 → .199 (−59)K% 36.1% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.13% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 3.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.110 | ×0.880 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .258 → .199; ISO .119 → .095; BABIP .295 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 56 PAwOBA .310 → .245 (−65)K% 28.6% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.010 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.077 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 15.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 9.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.773 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 6.44% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 93, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .310 → .245; ISO .196 → .173; BABIP .294 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 300 PAwOBA .345 → .277 (−68)K% 23.3% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.002 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷0.979 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.32% | ÷1.017 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 15.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.28% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.81% | ÷0.810 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 7.40% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .277; ISO .226 → .205; BABIP .283 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 538 PAwOBA .302 → .227 (−75)K% 31.6% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.60% | ÷1.051 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.43% | ÷1.014 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷1.024 | ×0.940 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 17.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.04% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.954 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 3.63% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .302 → .227; ISO .159 → .124; BABIP .323 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ALexington Legends · 437 PAwOBA .324 → .235 (−89)K% 26.3% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.974 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.09% | ÷1.074 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 4.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.84% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×0.990 | 16.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.51% | ÷1.026 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×0.990 | 7.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.020 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×0.990 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.103 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 3.73% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 99, 2B 105, 3B 104, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .324 → .235; ISO .197 → .138; BABIP .316 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 188 PAwOBA .363 → .257 (−106)K% 21.8% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.975 | 3.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.66% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.029 | ×0.975 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×0.975 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×0.975 | 2.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.975 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .363 → .257; ISO .178 → .120; BABIP .383 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).