Luis Bermudez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Bermudez P ACL Giants Black

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%22.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	10	43	168	39	13	1	91%	3.9	15.8%	9.7%	6.1%	0.8%	1.45	3.42	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	10	43	168	39	13	1	91%	3.9	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	0.6%	1.45	2.50	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	14	8	53	256	55	28	6	57%	3.8	14.6%	13.7%	0.9%	3.2%	7.13	5.34	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	14	8	53	256	55	28	6	57%	3.8	14.6%	13.7%	0.9%	3.2%	7.13	5.34	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	14	8	53	256	55	28	6	57%	3.8	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	2.3%	7.13	4.08	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	38	163	37	17	5	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.47	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	19	80	18	8	2	100%	4.8	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.47	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	80	18	8	2	100%	4.7	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.09	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	190	85	21	100%	5.4	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		25	18	96	424	64	51	9	72%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.2%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	880	133	106	20	72%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.2%	4.58	4.58	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Bermudez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	22.1%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.47	23.0%	12.6%	38	-0.22	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	90
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	90
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	84
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	84
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	22.6%	10.8%	1.15	4.61
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57