Javier Osorio
SS Lakeland Flying Tigers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKDSL Tigers 2 | 198 | .304/.434/.503 | 3 | 19 | 62 | — | .175/.288/.269 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROKDET | 146 | .304/.389/.488 | 5 | 20 | 72 | — | .215/.292/.346 |
| 2026 | 21 | ADET | 287 | .251/.330/.414 | 9 | 29 | 59 | — | .201/.266/.324 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBDET | 397 | .206/.268/.335 | 10 | 11 | 69 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBDET | 73 | .207/.269/.338 | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBDET | 136 | .210/.274/.346 | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | — | 178 | 154 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 68 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 175 | 282 | 227 | 510 | 52 | 302 | 38 | 9 | 246 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 117 | 103 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 272 | 359 | 515 | 874 | 243 | 397 | 34 | 9 | 383 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 161 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 44 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 304 | 434 | 503 | 937 | 199 | 404 | 22 | 15 | 417 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 125 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 304 | 389 | 488 | 877 | 184 | 375 | 23 | 8 | 384 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 251 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 67 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 251 | 330 | 414 | 744 | 163 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 328 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 1 | — | 178 | 159 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 84 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 101 | 192 | 119 | 312 | 19 | 203 | 47 | 6 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 117 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 142 | 222 | 245 | 468 | 104 | 244 | 43 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 171 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 175 | 288 | 269 | 557 | 94 | 251 | 27 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 215 | 292 | 346 | 638 | 131 | 287 | 34 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 259 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 91 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 201 | 266 | 324 | 590 | 124 | 260 | 32 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 1 | — | 178 | 159 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 84 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 101 | 192 | 119 | 312 | 19 | 211 | 47 | 6 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tigers 1 | — | 178 | 154 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 68 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 175 | 282 | 227 | 510 | 52 | 302 | 38 | 9 | 246 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 117 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 142 | 222 | 245 | 468 | 104 | 241 | 43 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 117 | 103 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 272 | 359 | 515 | 874 | 243 | 397 | 34 | 9 | 383 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 171 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 175 | 288 | 269 | 557 | 94 | 250 | 27 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 161 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 44 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 304 | 434 | 503 | 937 | 199 | 404 | 22 | 15 | 417 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 215 | 292 | 346 | 638 | 131 | 304 | 34 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 125 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 304 | 389 | 488 | 877 | 184 | 375 | 23 | 8 | 384 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 259 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 91 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 201 | 266 | 324 | 590 | 124 | 271 | 32 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 251 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 67 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 251 | 330 | 414 | 744 | 163 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 328 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 1 | — | 178 | 158 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 84 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 101 | 192 | 120 | 312 | 19 | 203 | 47 | 6 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 117 | 105 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 143 | 222 | 248 | 470 | 105 | 244 | 43 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 169 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 178 | 288 | 272 | 560 | 95 | 251 | 27 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 131 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 214 | 292 | 344 | 635 | 130 | 287 | 34 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 262 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 91 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 198 | 266 | 321 | 587 | 122 | 260 | 32 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 198 | 169 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 178 | 288 | 272 | 560 | 95 | 251 | 27 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 146 | 131 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 214 | 292 | 344 | 635 | 130 | 287 | 34 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 287 | 262 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 91 | 5 | 29 | 7 | 198 | 266 | 321 | 587 | 122 | 260 | 32 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | DET | 0% | 397 | 364 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 99 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 268 | 335 | 602 | 129 | 254 | 25 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | DET | 34% | 212 | 193 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 136 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | DET | 46% | 295 | 269 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 72 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 141 | 259 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 52% | 349 | 317 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 85 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 216 | 280 | 360 | 640 | 144 | 261 | 24 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 54% | 379 | 345 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 92 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 218 | 282 | 363 | 645 | 145 | 262 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 54% | 391 | 356 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 95 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 218 | 283 | 363 | 646 | 144 | 263 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 54% | 393 | 358 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 96 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 217 | 281 | 358 | 640 | 142 | 263 | 24 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 53% | 386 | 351 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 96 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 214 | 279 | 353 | 631 | 138 | 261 | 25 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 52% | 376 | 343 | 73 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 275 | 345 | 621 | 134 | 260 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | DET | 34% | 73 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 269 | 338 | 607 | 131 | 252 | 25 | 7 | 272 | 74 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | DET | 46% | 136 | 124 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 274 | 346 | 619 | 136 | 255 | 24 | 7 | 277 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 52% | 180 | 164 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 276 | 351 | 627 | 139 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 80 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 54% | 205 | 186 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 279 | 354 | 632 | 140 | 258 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 81 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 54% | 212 | 192 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 280 | 354 | 633 | 139 | 259 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 81 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 54% | 213 | 193 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 278 | 349 | 627 | 137 | 258 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 80 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 53% | 205 | 187 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 275 | 344 | 619 | 133 | 257 | 25 | 7 | 277 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 52% | 197 | 180 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 272 | 337 | 609 | 129 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 273 | 74 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1421 | 1293 | 280 | 54 | 7 | 39 | 97 | 348 | 18 | 35 | 8 | 217 | 281 | 360 | 640 | 143 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 70 | -36 | +4 | -2 | +15 | +31 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 128 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 159 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 217 | 280 | 360 | 640 | 144 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 279 | 70 | -17 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3879 | 3514 | 717 | 141 | 15 | 95 | 266 | 1053 | 67 | 164 | 40 | 204 | 273 | 334 | 607 | 130 | 260 | 27 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -78 | +7 | -4 | +32 | +64 | 2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 176 | 11 | 27 | 7 | 205 | 275 | 338 | 613 | 132 | 262 | 27 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 287 PAwOBA .325 → .256 (−69)K% 23.3% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.34% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.97% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .325 → .256; ISO .163 → .126; BABIP .300 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 146 PAwOBA .379 → .274 (−105)K% 23.3% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.29% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.996 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.47% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 21.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.79% | ÷0.992 | ×0.720 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.49% | ÷0.880 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.85% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .379 → .274; ISO .184 → .140; BABIP .375 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 198 PAwOBA .404 → .260 (−144)K% 22.2% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.14% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 10.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.54% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 15.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.82% | ÷0.951 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 7.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.135 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.995 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.21% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .404 → .260; ISO .199 → .110; BABIP .404 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 117 PAwOBA .373 → .213 (−160)K% 34.2% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.19% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.40% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.012 | ×0.680 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.101 | ×0.600 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.600 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.009 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 3.72% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .373 → .213; ISO .243 → .113; BABIP .397 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Tigers 1 · 178 PAwOBA .242 → .154 (−88)K% 38.2% → 47.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.20% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.99% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.93% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.42% | ÷1.033 | ×0.680 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.019 | ×0.600 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.996 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.56% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .242 → .154; ISO .052 → .027; BABIP .302 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).