Javier Osorio

SS Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1123ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKDSL Tigers 2198.304/.434/.50331962—.175/.288/.269
202520ROKDET146.304/.389/.48852072—.215/.292/.346
202621ADET287.251/.330/.41492959—.201/.266/.324
2027PROJMLE22MLBDET397.206/.268/.3351011690.1
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBDET73.207/.269/.33822740.0
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBDET136.210/.274/.34644770.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Max EV72
Speed67
K%52
Z-Con%40
Whiff%33
BB%26
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%
CompsCooper Bowman (age 22) · Juan Mora (age 22) · Tim Tawa (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 172 proj PA
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .265 / .332
PA172
HR4
SB5
K%25
BB%6
ISO129
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER50
scouting grade only
EYE46
scouting grade only
SPEED70
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-1$0.4M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Tigers 1 — 178154 27501 16687 153 175282227510 52302 389 246 -10 — — — — — —
202318 ROKDSL Tigers 2 — 117103 28625 11403 112 272359515874 243397 349 383 30 — — — — — —
202419 ROKDSL Tigers 2 — 198161 491543 30447 196 304434503937 199404 2215 417 62 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Tigers — 146125 38805 11347 204 304389488877 184375 238 384 72 — — — — — —
202621 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 287251 631409 25675 297 251330414744 163300 239 328 59 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 1 — 178159 16300 11847 153 101192119312 19203 476 154 -10 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 117106 15312 8503 112 142222245468 104244 437 213 30 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 198171 30921 20547 196 175288269557 94251 2710 260 62 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 146130 28504 7497 204 215292346638 131287 345 274 72 — — — — — —
202621 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 287259 521107 18915 297 201266324590 124260 326 256 59 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 1 — 178159 16300 11847 153 101192119312 19211 476 154 -10 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Tigers 1 — 178154 27501 16687 153 175282227510 52302 389 246 -10 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 117106 15312 8503 112 142222245468 104241 437 213 30 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Tigers 2 — 117103 28625 11403 112 272359515874 243397 349 383 30 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 198171 30921 20547 196 175288269557 94250 2710 260 62 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWDSL Tigers 2 — 198161 491543 30447 196 304434503937 199404 2215 417 62 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 146130 28504 7497 204 215292346638 131304 345 274 72 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWFCL Tigers — 146125 38805 11347 204 304389488877 184375 238 384 72 — — — — — —
202621 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 287259 521107 18915 297 201266324590 124271 326 256 59 — — — — — —
202621 A RAWLakeland Flying Tigers — 287251 631409 25675 297 251330414744 163300 239 328 59 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 1 — 178158 16300 11847 153 101192120312 19203 476 154 -10 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 117105 15312 8503 112 143222248470 105244 437 213 30 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 198169 30921 20547 196 178288272560 95251 2710 260 62 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 146131 28504 7497 204 214292344635 130287 345 274 72 — — — — — —
202621 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 287262 521107 18915 297 198266321587 122260 326 256 59 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 198169 30921 20547 196 178288272560 95251 2710 260 62 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 146131 28504 7497 204 214292344635 130287 345 274 72 — — — — — —
202621 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 287262 521107 18915 297 198266321587 122260 326 256 59 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEDET 0% 397364 7615210 25995 113 206268335602 129254 256 270 69 -15 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEDET 34% 212193 41816 14523 61 211273346619 136256 257 277 74 -7 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.1
202924 MLB MLEDET 46% 295269 571118 20724 82 214277355632 141259 247 282 77 -8 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.2
203025 MLB MLEDET 52% 349317 6813110 24855 102 216280360640 144261 247 286 80 -8 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.4
203126 MLB MLEDET 54% 379345 7514211 26925 103 218282363645 145262 247 288 81 -9 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.5
203227 MLB MLEDET 54% 391356 7815211 27955 103 218283363646 144263 247 288 81 -9 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.5
203328 MLB MLEDET 54% 393358 7815211 27965 92 217281358640 142263 247 286 80 -10 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.4
203429 MLB MLEDET 53% 386351 7414110 27965 72 214279353631 138261 257 282 77 -10 +1 -1 +4 +8 0.1
203530 MLB MLEDET 52% 376343 7314110 26944 52 212275345621 134260 257 278 74 -11 +0 -2 +4 +8 -0.1
202823 MLB CTXDET 34% 7367 14302 5181 21 207269338607 131252 257 272 74 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
202924 MLB CTXDET 46% 136124 27514 9332 41 210274346619 136255 247 277 77 -4 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.1
203025 MLB CTXDET 52% 180164 36715 12442 51 212276351627 139257 247 281 80 -4 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.2
203126 MLB CTXDET 54% 205186 41816 14503 61 214279354632 140258 247 283 81 -5 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.3
203227 MLB CTXDET 54% 212192 42816 15513 61 214280354633 139259 247 283 81 -5 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.3
203328 MLB CTXDET 54% 213193 42816 15523 51 213278349627 137258 247 281 80 -5 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.2
203429 MLB CTXDET 53% 205187 40815 14512 41 210275344619 133257 257 277 77 -6 +0 -1 +2 +4 0.1
203530 MLB CTXDET 52% 197180 38715 13492 31 208272337609 129256 257 273 74 -6 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14211293 28054739 9734818 358 217281360640 143264 247 279 70 -36 +4 -2 +15 +31 1.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 12825318 441598 164 217280360640 144264 247 279 70 -17 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 38793514 7171411595 266105367 16440 204273334607 130260 277 272 70 -78 +7 -4 +32 +64 2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 12124316 4517611 277 205275338613 132262 277 272 70 -17 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 287 PAwOBA .325 → .256 (−69)K% 23.3% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.34%÷1.000×1.360——31.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.71%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0156.10%
HBP% /PA1.74%—×0.780—×1.0151.38%
Singles /BIP21.74%÷1.000×0.920×0.961×1.01519.51%
Doubles /BIP7.61%÷1.000×0.830×0.961×1.0156.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×0.961×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP4.89%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0153.97%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .325 → .256; ISO .163 → .126; BABIP .300 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 146 PAwOBA .379 → .274 (−105)K% 23.3% → 33.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.29%÷1.001×1.440——33.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.53%÷0.996×0.620—×0.9954.67%
HBP% /PA4.79%—×0.720—×0.9953.43%
Singles /BIP27.47%÷0.974×0.820×0.954×0.99521.96%
Doubles /BIP8.79%÷0.992×0.720×0.954×0.9956.06%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720×0.954×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP5.49%÷0.880×0.780—×0.9954.85%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .379 → .274; ISO .184 → .140; BABIP .375 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 198 PAwOBA .404 → .260 (−144)K% 22.2% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷0.986×1.220——27.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.14%÷0.973×0.700—×0.99510.12%
HBP% /PA3.54%—×0.700—×0.9952.46%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.995×0.680×0.971×0.99515.24%
Doubles /BIP12.82%÷0.951×0.600×0.971×0.9957.81%
Triples /BIP3.42%÷1.135×0.600×0.971×0.9951.75%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷0.995×0.470—×0.9951.21%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .404 → .260; ISO .199 → .110; BABIP .404 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 117 PAwOBA .373 → .213 (−160)K% 34.2% → 42.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.19%÷0.983×1.220——42.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.40%÷0.997×0.700—×1.0086.65%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.700—×1.0081.81%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷1.012×0.680×1.009×1.00816.27%
Doubles /BIP9.52%÷1.101×0.600×1.009×1.0085.27%
Triples /BIP3.17%÷1.009×0.600×1.009×1.0081.92%
Home runs /BIP7.94%÷1.009×0.470—×1.0083.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .373 → .213; ISO .243 → .113; BABIP .397 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Tigers 1 · 178 PAwOBA .242 → .154 (−88)K% 38.2% → 47.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.20%÷0.992×1.220——46.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.99%÷1.028×0.700—×1.0226.26%
HBP% /PA3.93%—×0.700—×1.0222.81%
Singles /BIP24.42%÷1.033×0.680×1.027×1.02216.88%
Doubles /BIP5.81%÷1.019×0.600×1.027×1.0223.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×1.027×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP1.16%÷0.996×0.470—×1.0220.56%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .242 → .154; ISO .052 → .027; BABIP .302 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).