Javier Osorio — OGILVIE

Javier OsorioSS Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION191 act + 127 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .269 / .295

PA127

HR2

SB8

K%28

BB%6

BABIP268

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED71

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	178	161	16	3	0	1	9	100	7	15	3	99	181	137	317	37	246	56	5	144	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	178	154	27	5	0	1	16	68	7	15	3	175	282	227	510	52	302	38	9	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	117	107	16	3	1	3	7	60	3	11	2	150	222	280	503	131	295	51	6	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	117	103	28	6	2	5	11	40	3	11	2	272	359	515	874	243	397	34	9	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	198	173	35	11	2	2	18	65	7	19	6	202	303	324	627	121	311	33	9	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	198	161	49	15	4	3	30	44	7	19	6	304	434	503	937	199	404	22	15	417	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	146	130	29	5	0	5	7	49	7	20	4	223	299	377	676	154	308	34	5	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	146	125	38	8	0	5	11	34	7	20	4	304	389	488	877	184	375	23	8	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	DET	—	191	173	29	6	0	2	11	71	5	25	4	168	238	237	475	69	265	37	6	208	17	-18	+3	+0	+2	+5	-0.7
YTD	21	A	DET	—	191	169	36	7	0	2	14	50	5	25	4	213	291	290	581	77	286	26	7	267	63	-8	+3	+0	+2	+5	0.3
ROS	21	A	DET	0%	127	115	23	5	0	2	8	36	3	8	1	199	269	295	564	95	269	28	6	260	57	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
ROS	21	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		264	—	—	241	43	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	DET	—	191	174	29	6	0	2	11	71	5	25	4	167	238	236	474	69	262	37	6	208	17	-18	+3	+0	+2	+5	-0.7
TOT	21	A	DET	—	318	288	52	11	0	4	19	107	8	33	5	180	251	260	511	80	266	34	6	229	33	-24	+5	+0	+3	+9	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	34%	310	281	58	12	1	6	20	86	6	13	2	206	274	320	594	114	271	28	6	269	64	-12	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.1
2028	23	MLB	DET	48%	394	357	76	15	2	9	27	107	7	16	3	213	281	342	623	129	274	27	7	277	70	-13	+2	+0	+4	+11	0.4
2029	24	MLB	DET	53%	449	407	87	17	2	10	31	120	8	18	4	214	283	339	622	125	276	27	7	282	74	-13	+2	+0	+5	+13	0.6
2030	25	MLB	DET	55%	476	431	93	18	2	11	34	126	8	19	4	216	285	343	629	128	276	26	7	284	76	-13	+2	+0	+5	+13	0.8
2031	26	MLB	DET	56%	491	444	97	19	2	12	35	130	9	20	4	218	289	351	640	133	276	26	7	285	76	-13	+2	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2027	22	MLB	DET	34%	107	97	19	4	0	2	7	30	2	4	1	196	264	299	563	103	267	28	7	251	51	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	DET	48%	191	173	36	7	1	4	13	52	3	8	2	208	275	329	605	121	269	27	7	259	57	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	DET	53%	237	215	45	9	1	5	16	63	4	10	2	209	277	330	607	121	271	27	7	264	60	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	DET	55%	260	235	50	10	1	6	18	69	5	11	2	213	283	340	623	128	271	27	7	266	62	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2031	26	MLB	DET	56%	273	247	52	10	1	6	19	72	5	11	2	211	280	332	612	121	271	26	7	267	62	-12	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1068	968	202	40	4	23	73	286	19	44	9	209	278	330	607	121	270	27	7	263	60	-49	+5	+0	+11	+30	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	122	24	2	14	44	174	12	27	5	207	276	326	602	119	267	27	7	263	60	-30	+3	+0	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	2886	2606	530	108	12	61	196	879	65	159	33	203	276	324	600	121	279	30	7	269	64	-117	+19	+0	+31	+82	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	120	24	3	14	44	198	15	36	7	204	277	327	604	123	280	30	7	269	64	-26	+4	+0	+7	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	178	154	27	5	0	1	16	68	7	15	3	175	282	227	510	52	302	38	9	246	47	-11	+2	—	—	+5	-0.4
2023	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	117	103	28	6	2	5	11	40	3	11	2	272	359	515	874	243	397	34	9	383	151	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	198	161	49	15	4	3	30	44	7	19	6	304	434	503	937	199	404	22	15	417	177	+17	+1	—	—	+6	2.5
2025	20	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	146	125	38	8	0	5	11	34	7	20	4	304	389	488	877	184	375	23	8	384	152	+9	+2	—	—	+4	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,256	28	48	215	281	341	+13	+9	1.6	1.6
	/162	664	15	26	215	281	341	+7.1	+4.8	0.9	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Javier Osorio (OGILVIE)	21	25→30	39→44	66→71	50	180/251/260	80	266	4	33	34%	6%	33	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	78	+0.2	210/269/323	113	265	11	17	24%	7%	63	-0.8	202/247/302	100	249	8	18	22%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Eric Brown Jr. 2023 · A	22	45→33	43→40	58→65	45	218/293/335	117	292	10	27	28%	8%	77	+0.1	191/260/272	81	254	7	28	26%	7%	46	-2.0	158/229/228	70	213	6	17	28%	7%	19	-1.6
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44→39	45	56→60	41	213/288/344	131	301	12	19	32%	7%	77	+0.1	199/274/319	120	285	13	34	33%	8%	65	-0.7	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	36→34	45→50	54→50	37	187/249/310	124	268	12	13	34%	6%	52	-1.6	201/258/355	154	293	19	14	37%	6%	68	-0.5	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	42→50	52→55	42	203/265/309	106	263	10	18	26%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/357	150	272	17	18	30%	7%	74	-0.1	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Mariel Bautista 2019 · A	21	48→34	42→45	55→50	42	234/277/340	107	280	9	16	20%	4%	70	-0.3	199/247/298	99	271	10	14	29%	4%	47	-1.9	176/223/270	95	243	11	15	32%	4%	28	-1.6
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	42→50	40→45	59→55	39	204/254/302	98	293	6	20	31%	6%	50	-1.7	223/280/337	114	302	9	18	28%	6%	71	-0.3	225/287/343	117	297	10	18	26%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Kenedy Corona 2021 · A	21	45→40	42→45	53→55	46	220/282/327	107	269	8	14	21%	6%	69	-0.4	206/264/322	116	293	11	21	32%	6%	60	-1.0	198/258/327	129	278	14	26	33%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Clay Fuller 2009 · A	22	45	42→45	59→55	44	212/292/327	115	313	8	20	32%	8%	74	-0.1	209/278/327	118	293	12	18	31%	7%	68	-0.5	204/269/322	118	278	14	18	31%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	41	41→40	57→60	48	201/274/306	105	261	8	20	25%	8%	61	-1.0	183/262/263	80	276	4	22	32%	8%	45	-2.1	166/252/237	72	256	4	27	33%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	48→49	43→50	56→50	45	232/286/358	126	292	9	10	23%	6%	79	+0.3	228/273/336	108	306	6	9	26%	5%	66	-0.6	227/270/341	114	317	5	10	29%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Wes Rogers 2015 · A	21	45→48	41→40	57→65	42	217/271/315	97	295	9	18	28%	6%	61	-1.0	221/279/307	86	297	5	34	26%	6%	62	-0.9	221/279/307	86	298	5	42	26%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Tyler Kolodny 2009 · A	21	46→36	44→45	53→50	42	227/288/350	123	294	12	8	26%	6%	79	+0.3	207/279/338	131	277	13	8	29%	6%	72	-0.2	198/277/331	133	261	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Jared Serna 2023 · A	21	41→49	42→45	54→50	49	201/291/307	106	264	9	21	26%	9%	69	-0.4	217/273/331	114	272	11	15	24%	6%	66	-0.6	211/266/314	103	262	10	16	23%	6%	56	-1.2