Jhancarlos Lara

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP44ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	20	19	83	3.92	3.48	25.3%	16.2%	—	K 19.7% · BB 18.3% · FIP 4.39
2025	22	MIX2 levels	34	14	69	7.73	4.61	31.8%	19.9%	—	K 27.0% · BB 19.1% · FIP 5.08
2026	23	AAWSH	36	0	39	6.05	4.81	29.4%	28.4%	—	K 23.8% · BB 31.2% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	86	0	90	5.06	5.06	27.6%	20.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBWSH	42	0	44	4.82	4.72	27.5%	17.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBWSH	60	0	63	4.71	4.66	27.4%	16.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff64Control30Command35FB velo61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEric Cerantola (age 24) · Cole McDonald (age 25) · Preston Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%27.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5065

CTRL3030

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	9	30	137	38	26	0	90%	3.0	18.9%	23.7%	-4.9%	0.0%	1.78	4.51	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	9	30	137	38	26	0	90%	3.0	27.7%	19.0%	8.8%	0.0%	1.78	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	81	344	114	42	6	75%	4.1	23.2%	14.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.09	3.95	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	81	344	114	42	6	75%	4.1	33.1%	12.2%	20.9%	1.7%	4.09	2.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	19.7%	18.3%	1.5%	1.2%	3.92	4.39	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	19.7%	18.3%	1.5%	1.2%	3.92	4.39	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	25.3%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.92	3.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	27.0%	19.1%	7.9%	3.4%	7.73	5.08	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	27.0%	19.1%	7.9%	3.4%	7.73	5.08	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	31.8%	19.9%	11.9%	2.8%	7.73	4.61	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	31.2%	-7.4%	0.6%	6.05	5.37	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	31.2%	-7.4%	0.6%	6.05	5.37	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	29.4%	28.4%	1.0%	0.5%	6.05	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	86	0	90	380	105	76	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	20.0%	7.6%	2.5%	5.06	5.06	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	87	0	91	385	106	66	10	0%	1.0	27.5%	17.2%	10.3%	2.5%	4.82	4.72	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	87	0	91	385	105	63	10	0%	1.0	27.4%	16.4%	11.0%	2.6%	4.71	4.66	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	85	0	90	379	103	61	10	0%	1.1	27.1%	16.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	83	0	87	367	99	59	10	0%	1.0	26.9%	16.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.75	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	79	0	83	351	94	57	10	0%	1.1	26.7%	16.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.88	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	74	0	78	330	93	52	10	0%	1.1	28.3%	15.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.80	4.79	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	42	0	44	186	51	32	5	0%	1.0	27.5%	17.2%	10.3%	2.5%	4.82	4.72	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	60	0	63	266	73	44	7	0%	1.1	27.4%	16.4%	11.0%	2.6%	4.71	4.66	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	68	0	71	300	81	48	8	0%	1.0	27.1%	16.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	70	0	74	312	84	50	9	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.75	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	70	0	73	308	82	50	9	0%	1.0	26.7%	16.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.88	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	68	0	71	300	85	47	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	15.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.80	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		377	0	396	1673	457	271	46	0%	1.1	27.3%	16.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.37	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	231	137	23	0%	1.1	27.3%	16.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		120	57	302	1380	315	276	23	48%	2.5	22.8%	20.0%	2.8%	1.6%	4.89	4.60	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	38	200	915	209	183	15	48%	2.5	22.8%	20.0%	2.8%	1.6%	4.89	4.60	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhancarlos Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	27.6%	20.0%	2.5%	—	4.69	27.4%	10.8%	272	-0.37	—	—	—
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	80
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	77
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	75
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	74
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	74
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	71
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	70
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	69
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	69
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	67
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	67
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	67
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	67
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	66
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	66
Carlton Perkins R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	21	SW	4.16	18.6%	15.7%	1.2%	.356	4.88	18.2%	0.2%	66	+0.72	3.61	124	66
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	66
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	66
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	66
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	27.4%	16.9%	1.05	4.80
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Tom Sunkel ('37-'44, -0 WAR*)	1.1	55	24.6%*	13.5%*	0.96*	5.12*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30