Dakota Jordan

CF Eugene Emeralds

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 231 lbs A+ HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1814ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ASF	416	.311/.381/.497	14	27	78	—	.240/.294/.360
2026	23	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	514	.278/.353/.479	20	25	84	—	.226/.276/.387
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBSF	1	.206/.257/.344	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBSF	78	.210/.263/.359	2	2	77	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSF	134	.213/.267/.369	4	4	81	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed68

BB%49

wRC+39

wOBA35

ISO28

K%24

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJeter Downs (age 24) · Shay Whitcomb (age 24) · Nelson Velázquez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .257 / .344

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP284

ISO144

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	416	370	115	15	6	14	37	95	5	27	4	311	381	497	878	186	381	23	9	385	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	88	79	20	6	0	1	9	26	0	6	0	253	330	367	697	114	365	30	10	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	355	321	93	22	1	18	28	98	2	15	2	290	350	533	883	243	359	28	8	381	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	71	57	14	2	0	1	11	21	3	4	0	246	394	333	728	88	371	30	15	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	416	383	92	10	6	8	24	134	5	27	4	240	294	360	654	120	337	32	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	88	82	19	5	0	1	6	32	0	6	0	232	284	329	613	98	357	36	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	355	329	74	17	1	13	20	132	2	15	2	225	274	401	675	176	314	37	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	416	383	92	10	6	8	24	134	5	27	4	240	294	360	654	120	343	32	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	416	370	115	15	6	14	37	95	5	27	4	311	381	497	878	186	381	23	9	385	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	514	475	107	25	1	16	30	190	5	25	2	225	278	383	662	158	333	37	6	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	514	457	127	30	1	20	48	145	5	25	2	278	353	479	832	201	361	28	9	365	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	416	384	92	10	6	8	24	134	5	27	4	240	294	359	653	120	337	32	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	514	474	107	25	1	16	30	190	5	25	2	226	278	384	662	158	323	37	6	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	416	384	92	10	6	8	24	134	5	27	4	240	294	359	653	120	337	32	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	514	474	107	25	1	16	30	190	5	25	2	226	278	384	662	158	323	37	6	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	0%	380	353	75	15	2	11	22	126	2	11	1	210	261	356	617	146	288	33	6	273	71	-13	+2	+0	+1	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	206	257	344	601	139	284	0	0	267	71	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	30%	258	239	51	10	1	8	15	84	2	7	1	215	267	372	639	157	289	33	6	282	77	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	44%	303	279	60	12	1	10	19	97	2	8	1	218	272	382	653	164	289	32	6	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	49%	320	295	65	13	1	11	20	101	2	8	1	218	273	381	653	162	288	32	6	289	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	52%	326	300	66	13	1	11	21	102	2	8	1	218	273	377	651	159	288	31	6	288	81	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	51%	321	295	63	12	1	10	21	100	2	7	1	217	273	373	645	156	286	31	7	286	80	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	51%	314	289	62	12	1	10	20	99	2	6	1	214	269	365	634	151	284	32	6	281	76	-9	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	30%	78	73	14	3	0	2	5	25	0	2	0	210	263	359	622	149	284	32	6	276	77	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	44%	134	124	26	5	1	4	8	43	1	4	0	213	267	369	636	155	285	32	6	281	81	-3	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	49%	157	145	31	6	1	5	10	50	1	4	1	214	269	368	636	154	284	32	6	282	82	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	52%	168	154	34	7	1	5	11	53	1	4	1	213	269	365	634	151	283	32	7	281	81	-4	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	51%	165	152	32	6	1	5	11	51	1	3	0	212	269	360	629	148	282	31	7	279	80	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	51%	162	150	32	6	1	5	10	51	1	3	0	209	265	353	618	143	280	31	6	275	76	-5	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	864	798	169	33	5	26	55	273	5	20	2	212	267	363	630	152	284	32	6	279	79	-21	+3	-1	+3	+19	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	128	25	4	20	41	205	4	15	2	213	268	368	637	155	285	32	6	279	79	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2982	2750	607	115	14	90	182	976	23	102	13	221	275	371	646	150	303	33	6	284	79	-52	+7	-2	+7	+44	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	133	25	3	20	40	213	5	22	3	222	276	374	650	152	305	33	6	284	79	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 355 PAwOBA .375 → .289 (−86)K% 27.6% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.61%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	37.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.59%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	0.46%
Singles /BIP	23.32%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.009	×0.998	21.36%
Doubles /BIP	9.87%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.009	×0.998	8.24%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.009	×0.998	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	8.07%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.998	6.69%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .375 → .289; ISO .243 → .182; BABIP .359 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 88 PAwOBA .304 → .265 (−39)K% 29.5% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.55%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	36.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.53%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.022	×1.027	24.97%
Doubles /BIP	11.32%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.022	×1.027	10.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.022	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	1.51%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .304 → .265; ISO .114 → .094; BABIP .365 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 416 PAwOBA .378 → .283 (−95)K% 22.8% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.84%	÷0.962	×1.360	—	—	32.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	—	5.82%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.94%
Singles /BIP	29.09%	÷1.007	×0.920	×1.014	—	26.95%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.138	×0.830	×1.014	—	4.03%
Triples /BIP	2.18%	÷0.902	×0.910	×1.014	—	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	5.09%	÷1.358	×0.800	—	—	3.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .378 → .283; ISO .186 → .120; BABIP .381 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3John Shelby'81-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,326 PA	5.0	3,326	70	98	237*	281*	385*	+1	-4	1.7	3.8
/162	664	14	20	+0.1	-0.9	0.3	pk7: 6
#4Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.3	865	29	20	218	269	376	-5	+1	0.0	0.1
/162	664	22	16	-4.0	+1.1	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dakota Jordan (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	208/259/353	144	288	6	6	33%	6%	71	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	46→50	53→55	41	190/255/315	125	268	15	19	34%	7%	61	-1.5	185/268/313	128	266	15	22	34%	8%	66	-1.1	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Shay Whitcomb 2023 · AA	24	38→47	48→55	54→55	33	193/241/327	134	304	17	19	41%	5%	58	-1.7	213/267/373	160	286	22	18	33%	6%	78	-0.3	224/284/376	152	283	20	23	28%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→39	53→60	53→50	38	209/269/382	173	310	22	17	39%	7%	82	-0.0	211/276/393	182	273	25	11	31%	8%	87	+0.4	202/269/384	182	246	26	10	30%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Kenedy Corona 2024 · AA	24	41→42	48→50	54→55	41	211/269/351	141	285	16	24	31%	7%	74	-0.5	207/273/312	105	285	10	24	29%	7%	67	-1.1	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Brian Pellegrini 2009 · A	24	35→33	55→60	56→45	38	196/266/381	186	263	23	11	35%	6%	81	-0.1	210/279/406	196	271	27	7	33%	7%	91	+0.7	200/273/404	204	246	31	5	33%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Billy Cook 2024 · AA	25	37→44	48→50	57→55	37	196/250/333	137	277	17	23	35%	6%	63	-1.4	213/275/345	132	297	15	22	32%	7%	75	-0.5	211/276/340	129	293	14	25	32%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Melky Mesa 2011 · A	24	38→46	49→55	54→55	36	197/257/349	152	292	17	17	37%	6%	69	-0.9	216/268/362	146	312	16	18	35%	5%	76	-0.4	215/255/371	156	295	20	17	34%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Matt Gorski 2023 · AA	25	38→34	52→55	56→55	36	202/255/365	164	293	21	20	38%	6%	72	-0.7	200/248/361	161	274	20	18	34%	6%	68	-1.0	190/239/355	165	267	20	14	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→42	48→50	55→50	41	234/280/377	144	297	16	15	27%	5%	84	+0.1	217/263/360	143	281	16	14	28%	5%	74	-0.6	205/250/346	141	263	15	14	28%	5%	63	-0.7
●Trayce Thompson 2015 · AAA	24	39→49	47→60	53→50	41	199/262/340	142	279	14	16	33%	7%	69	-0.9	217/271/367	150	280	16	11	27%	7%	78	-0.3	203/291/407	204	286	27	7	37%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Jase Bowen 2024 · AA	23	37→42	47→50	55	36	194/247/321	127	273	15	17	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/339	130	297	14	20	33%	5%	68	-1.0	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Bradlee Beesley 2022 · AA	24	40	44→50	55→60	37	197/257/316	119	307	11	20	38%	6%	61	-1.5	204/272/327	123	301	11	26	34%	7%	70	-0.9	195/271/326	131	284	11	34	33%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Jordan Nwogu 2023 · A	24	41	48→50	53→55	41	208/280/351	143	297	16	16	34%	7%	78	-0.3	194/255/309	115	287	13	20	35%	6%	59	-1.6	212/276/293	80	294	7	25	28%	6%	61	-0.8
✕Jesse Franklin V 2023 · AA	24	38→28	55→60	53→55	36	206/267/389	184	295	24	15	38%	6%	83	+0.1	215/279/376	161	305	20	18	35%	6%	84	+0.1	199/266/371	171	275	23	24	35%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2016 · AAA	24	42→38	50	52→50	40	212/274/364	153	310	19	13	37%	7%	79	-0.2	181/244/285	104	283	10	10	37%	7%	49	-2.4	153/218/242	88	242	7	9	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2024 · AA	24	41→51	51→55	50→55	41	213/274/368	155	292	20	18	33%	7%	80	-0.2	227/265/382	155	285	19	12	27%	4%	80	-0.2	228/259/382	154	275	20	9	25%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Denzel Clarke 2024 · AA	24	44	51→50	58→55	42	212/299/377	164	333	18	19	39%	9%	92	+0.7	219/288/349	130	338	12	24	36%	7%	80	-0.1	215/283/336	120	333	10	29	36%	7%	72	-0.3

Dakota Jordan

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps