Justin Thomas Jr.

OF Asheville Tourists

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AHOU	62	.204/.371/.306	0	3	54	—	.170/.290/.245
2026	22	AAHOU	91	.224/.416/.343	2	7	90	—	.208/.360/.319
2026	22	A+HOU	446	.253/.409/.460	17	34	80	—	.190/.301/.344
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBHOU	2	.205/.312/.348	0	0	89	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBHOU	213	.209/.314/.358	6	7	92	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBHOU	319	.212/.316/.364	9	9	94	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%99

BB%96

wOBA72

wRC+70

Speed56

K%39

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTim Tawa (age 23) · Matt McLain (age 23) · Jonny DeLuca (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .312 / .348

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO145

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	91	67	15	2	0	2	17	24	5	7	1	224	416	343	759	119	302	26	19	354	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	446	352	89	20	1	17	77	139	16	34	6	253	409	460	869	207	365	31	17	391	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	53	9	2	1	0	7	18	2	3	3	170	290	245	536	75	250	29	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	91	72	15	2	0	2	12	29	5	7	1	208	360	319	679	111	276	32	13	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	446	384	73	15	1	14	45	182	16	34	6	190	301	344	645	154	305	41	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	53	9	2	1	0	7	18	2	3	3	170	290	245	536	75	257	29	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	455	88	17	1	16	58	211	21	41	7	193	313	341	653	147	312	39	11	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	537	419	104	22	1	19	94	163	21	41	7	248	410	442	852	193	354	30	18	385	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	53	9	2	1	0	7	18	2	3	3	170	290	245	536	75	250	29	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	453	88	17	1	16	58	211	21	41	7	194	313	342	655	148	300	39	11	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	53	9	2	1	0	7	18	2	3	3	170	290	245	536	75	250	29	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	453	88	17	1	16	58	211	21	41	7	194	313	342	655	148	300	39	11	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	525	450	92	17	2	15	57	161	13	17	3	203	310	347	656	144	274	31	11	299	89	-7	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	205	312	348	660	144	279	50	0	301	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	38%	560	481	100	19	2	16	60	168	14	17	3	207	313	356	669	149	276	30	11	304	92	-5	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	575	495	104	20	2	17	61	170	14	17	4	210	314	362	676	152	277	30	11	306	94	-4	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	64%	580	500	106	20	2	18	62	169	13	17	3	212	314	365	679	153	278	29	11	307	94	-4	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	66%	579	500	106	20	2	17	61	168	13	16	3	212	314	364	678	152	278	29	11	307	94	-4	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	67%	575	498	106	20	2	17	60	166	12	15	3	212	312	362	674	150	278	29	10	305	93	-5	+2	-1	-3	+12	0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	66%	568	492	103	19	2	16	59	165	12	14	3	210	309	355	664	146	276	29	10	301	90	-7	+2	-1	-3	+12	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	71%	507	439	90	17	1	14	52	149	11	11	3	206	305	347	652	141	274	29	10	297	87	-8	+1	-2	-3	+11	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	38%	213	183	39	8	1	6	23	64	5	7	1	209	314	358	672	149	280	30	11	305	92	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	319	274	57	11	1	9	34	94	8	9	2	212	316	364	680	152	282	29	11	308	94	-2	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	64%	369	318	67	13	1	11	39	108	9	11	2	214	316	367	683	153	282	29	11	309	94	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	66%	380	328	70	14	1	11	40	110	9	11	2	214	316	366	682	152	282	29	11	308	94	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	67%	384	333	71	14	1	11	40	111	8	10	2	214	314	364	678	149	282	29	10	307	93	-3	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	66%	373	323	68	14	1	10	39	109	8	9	2	212	311	357	668	145	280	29	10	303	90	-4	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	71%	359	312	66	13	1	10	37	106	7	8	2	208	307	349	656	140	278	30	10	298	87	-6	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2397	2071	438	87	7	68	252	702	54	65	13	211	313	359	672	147	282	29	11	305	90	-23	+8	-3	-14	+52	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	119	24	2	18	68	190	15	18	4	212	314	358	671	146	282	29	10	305	90	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4863	4188	868	165	16	140	514	1482	120	161	34	207	311	355	666	147	281	30	11	301	90	-42	+14	-4	-26	+92	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	116	22	2	19	69	198	16	22	5	207	312	355	667	148	280	30	11	301	90	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Isbell'01-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,483 PA	6.8	4,483	13	250	248*	300*	403*	-42	+24	9.5	10.1
/162	664	2	37	-6.2	+3.6	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Willie Kirkland'58-'66 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	148	52	237*	302*	437*	-37	-0	8.1	8.5
/162	664	25	9	-6.3	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.6	2,399	70	64	211	309	361	-14	+0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	19	18	-4.0	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Danny Moeller'07-'16 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,912 PA	4.4	2,912	15	171	242*	323*	402*	-31	-13	2.8	2.8
/162	664	3	39	-7.0	-3.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Thomas Jr. (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	46→51	62→67	64	201/307/343	142	274	9	10	31%	11%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Alexander Canario 2023 · AAA	23	38→36	57→60	53→50	40	208/269/403	195	282	26	17	36%	7%	86	+0.3	218/281/392	174	310	22	11	35%	8%	88	+0.5	212/277/371	159	303	20	8	35%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Denzel Clarke 2024 · AA	24	44	51→50	58→55	42	212/299/377	164	333	18	19	39%	9%	92	+0.7	219/288/349	130	338	12	24	36%	7%	80	-0.1	215/283/336	120	333	10	29	36%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Parker Meadows 2024 · MLB	24	43→48	49→55	57→55	46	219/284/373	154	279	17	17	28%	8%	84	+0.2	234/303/394	160	302	16	20	26%	9%	96	+1.0	236/310/408	171	300	16	22	26%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Max Wagner 2024 · AA	22	41→38	46→50	55→50	42	204/275/332	128	291	13	18	33%	8%	72	-0.7	195/261/317	122	302	13	12	37%	7%	63	-1.3	190/255/330	140	291	17	7	39%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→42	48→50	55→50	41	234/280/377	144	297	16	15	27%	5%	84	+0.1	217/263/360	143	281	16	14	28%	5%	74	-0.6	205/250/346	141	263	15	14	28%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
●Davis Schneider 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	50→55	53→50	47	209/294/363	154	302	17	13	34%	10%	86	+0.3	219/320/402	183	292	21	10	30%	12%	105	+1.7	212/323/402	190	276	23	9	30%	13%	106	+1.4
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43→44	48→55	56→50	47	212/302/359	147	307	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.5	219/297/382	163	280	19	10	28%	9%	92	+0.7	215/296/383	167	260	20	8	25%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Jud Fabian 2024 · AA	23	39→31	50→45	52→50	45	196/283/350	154	303	18	20	39%	10%	80	-0.2	176/258/299	123	275	15	13	39%	9%	59	-1.7	158/245/267	109	241	14	10	38%	10%	46	-2.1
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	46→41	47→50	62→55	51	228/308/371	143	270	13	24	21%	9%	93	+0.8	215/288/341	126	275	11	14	24%	8%	79	-0.2	207/276/315	108	283	7	9	27%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Devonte Brown 2024 · AA	24	41→39	47→45	55→50	46	202/289/337	136	305	15	17	36%	10%	79	-0.2	190/274/301	111	315	12	16	40%	9%	65	-1.2	170/259/267	97	288	11	17	41%	9%	50	-1.3

Justin Thomas Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps