Joseph Montalvo

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1093ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+DET	18	18	78	3.00	3.34	27.2%	8.0%	—	K 20.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.65
2025	23	AADET	11	10	44	4.50	4.85	18.4%	9.7%	—	K 14.9% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	25	MLBDET	1	1	1	4.89	4.89	18.1%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBDET	4	4	27	4.70	4.67	19.7%	9.4%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBDET	6	6	36	4.67	4.67	20.0%	9.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Nick Dean (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	10	1	23	96	36	3	1	10%	2.3	25.5%	3.9%	21.6%	1.4%	2.31	2.23	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	10	1	23	96	36	3	1	10%	2.3	37.5%	3.1%	34.4%	1.0%	2.31	0.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	95	397	107	39	9	77%	4.3	19.9%	11.6%	8.4%	2.7%	2.83	4.38	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	95	397	107	39	9	77%	4.3	27.0%	9.8%	17.1%	2.3%	2.83	3.31	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.9%	3.00	4.65	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.9%	3.00	4.65	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	27.2%	8.0%	19.1%	2.8%	3.00	3.34	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	14.9%	10.7%	4.2%	4.3%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	14.9%	10.7%	4.2%	4.3%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	18.4%	9.7%	8.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	DET	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	261	51	25	8	100%	6.2	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.77	4.74	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	239	48	23	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.2%	4.74	4.74	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	224	45	21	7	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.81	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	49	206	41	20	7	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.8%	10.0%	3.4%	4.86	4.92	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	44	185	36	19	7	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.6%	5.01	5.10	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	27	114	22	11	3	100%	6.8	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.0%	4.70	4.67	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	30	14	5	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.67	4.67	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	34	16	5	100%	5.7	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	34	17	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	9.8%	10.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	31	16	6	100%	6.3	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.5%	4.93	5.02	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	180	762	151	74	24	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.76	4.41	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	82	27	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.76	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		61	46	241	1002	199	99	33	75%	3.9	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	3.3%	3.14	4.48	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	833	165	83	27	75%	3.9	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	3.3%	3.14	4.48	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 44 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.56 (+0.70)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.38%	—	×0.810	14.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.100	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.78%	÷1.056	×1.200	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 78 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.65 (+1.30)K% 27.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.770	20.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.150	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.889	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 95 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.38 (+1.07)K% 27.0% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.95%	—	×0.740	19.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.180	11.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.082	×1.300	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 23 IPFIP 0.90 → 2.23 (+1.33)K% 37.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.680	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.250	3.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.018	×1.400	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.90 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Montalvo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.76	19.9%	10.4%	172	-0.13	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	86
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	83
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	81
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	81
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	81
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	80
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	79
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	79
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	19.5%	9.6%	1.27	4.83
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*