Joseph Montalvo
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132122vR 113
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
K%18.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 10 | 1 | 23 | 96 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 10% | 2.3 | 25.5% | 3.9% | 21.6% | 1.4% | 2.31 | 2.21 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 10 | 1 | 23 | 96 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 10% | 2.3 | 37.5% | 3.1% | 34.4% | 1.0% | 2.31 | 0.96 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 22 | 17 | 95 | 397 | 107 | 39 | 9 | 77% | 4.3 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 2.83 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 22 | 17 | 95 | 397 | 107 | 39 | 9 | 77% | 4.3 | 27.0% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 2.83 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 18 | 18 | 78 | 324 | 88 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 3.00 | 4.95 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 18 | 18 | 78 | 324 | 88 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 3.00 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 11 | 10 | 44 | 185 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 91% | 4.0 | 14.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 5.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 11 | 10 | 44 | 185 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 91% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 69 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 91 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 106 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 105 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 101 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 71 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 82 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 86 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 53 | 319 | 1347 | 278 | 120 | 43 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.22 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 75 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 46 | 241 | 1002 | 199 | 99 | 33 | 75% | 3.9 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 3.14 | 4.51 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 38 | 200 | 833 | 165 | 83 | 28 | 75% | 3.9 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 3.14 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joseph Montalvo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.67 | 20.5% | 11.6% | 350 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 90 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 86 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 86 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 86 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 85 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 85 |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 85 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 84 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 84 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 84 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 84 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.54 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.08 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.46 | 3.05 | 907 | 84 |
| Brooks Hall R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 83 |
| Forrest Snow R 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 83 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 82 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 111 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 1.28 | 4.76 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |