Joseph Montalvo — OGILVIE

Joseph Montalvo P Erie SeaWolves

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%18.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD4055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	10	1	23	96	36	3	1	10%	2.3	25.5%	3.9%	21.6%	1.4%	2.31	2.23	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	10	1	23	96	36	3	1	10%	2.3	37.5%	3.1%	34.4%	1.0%	2.31	0.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	95	397	107	39	9	77%	4.3	19.9%	11.6%	8.4%	2.7%	2.83	4.38	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	95	397	107	39	9	77%	4.3	19.9%	11.6%	8.4%	2.7%	2.83	4.38	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	95	397	107	39	9	77%	4.3	27.0%	9.8%	17.1%	2.3%	2.83	3.31	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.9%	3.00	4.65	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.9%	3.00	4.65	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	18	18	78	324	88	26	9	100%	4.3	27.2%	8.0%	19.1%	2.8%	3.00	3.34	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	14.9%	10.7%	4.2%	4.3%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	14.9%	10.7%	4.2%	4.3%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	11	10	44	185	34	18	7	91%	4.0	18.4%	9.7%	8.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	DET	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	9.7%	8.4%	3.3%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	109	461	91	42	15	100%	5.7	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	121	511	106	46	17	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.63	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	119	504	105	45	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.66	4.65	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	116	489	101	44	16	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.7%	3.4%	4.70	4.73	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	110	467	96	43	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.86	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	104	439	88	42	16	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.7%	4.94	5.03	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	48	203	40	18	6	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.73	4.66	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	81	342	71	31	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.55	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	93	393	82	35	12	100%	5.8	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.58	4.57	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	98	414	86	38	13	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	97	410	84	38	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.4%	4.71	4.78	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	93	393	79	38	14	100%	5.8	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	509	2150	441	197	70	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.32	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	77	27	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		61	46	241	1002	199	99	33	75%	3.9	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	3.3%	3.14	4.48	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	833	165	83	27	75%	3.9	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	3.3%	3.14	4.48	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Montalvo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.2%	9.7%	3.3%	—	4.67	20.5%	11.5%	350	-0.32	—	—	—
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	89
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	88
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	86
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	86
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	85
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	20.2%	9.2%	1.31	4.79
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32