Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021
17
ROKMLE
DSL Marlins
6
6
17
71
18
3
1
100%
2.9
17.2%
5.3%
12.0%
1.4%
3.12
3.09
—
2021
17
ROKRAW
DSL Marlins
6
6
17
71
18
3
1
100%
2.9
25.4%
4.2%
21.1%
1.4%
3.12
2.29
—
2022
18
MIXMLE
2 levels
9
7
27
108
29
19
0
78%
3.0
22.1%
8.4%
13.6%
0.0%
2.70
2.31
—
2022
18
MIXRAW
2 levels
9
7
27
108
29
19
0
78%
3.0
26.9%
17.6%
9.3%
0.0%
2.70
3.06
—
2025
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
17
14
67
297
79
37
6
82%
3.9
19.4%
14.9%
4.5%
2.6%
3.78
4.79
—
2025
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
17
14
67
297
79
37
6
82%
3.9
19.4%
14.9%
4.5%
2.6%
3.78
4.79
—
2025
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
17
14
67
297
79
37
6
82%
3.9
26.6%
12.5%
14.1%
2.0%
3.78
3.57
—
2026
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
22
21
94
415
141
66
8
95%
4.3
25.2%
18.7%
6.5%
2.5%
3.91
4.70
—
2026
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
22
21
94
415
141
66
8
95%
4.3
25.2%
18.7%
6.5%
2.5%
3.91
4.70
—
2026
22
MIXRAW
2 levels
22
21
94
415
141
66
8
95%
4.3
34.0%
15.9%
18.1%
1.9%
3.91
3.31
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
23
MLB
MIA
17
17
90
380
95
73
11
100%
5.3
25.1%
19.1%
6.0%
2.9%
5.37
5.37
-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
24
MLBMLE
MIA
21
21
118
499
126
82
14
100%
5.6
25.3%
16.4%
8.9%
2.9%
5.11
5.00
-0.1
2029
25
MLBMLE
MIA
24
24
138
581
148
86
17
100%
5.7
25.5%
14.7%
10.7%
2.9%
4.88
4.77
+0.2
2030
26
MLBMLE
MIA
25
25
150
632
161
91
18
100%
6.0
25.5%
14.3%
11.2%
2.9%
4.77
4.72
+0.3
2031
27
MLBMLE
MIA
25
25
148
623
158
89
18
100%
5.9
25.4%
14.2%
11.2%
2.9%
4.75
4.75
+0.3
2032
28
MLBMLE
MIA
24
24
143
604
153
87
18
100%
6.0
25.3%
14.4%
10.9%
3.0%
4.80
4.83
+0.1
2033
29
MLBMLE
MIA
23
23
137
577
144
84
18
100%
5.9
25.0%
14.6%
10.4%
3.2%
4.90
4.96
-0.1
2034
30
MLBMLE
MIA
21
21
128
543
134
81
18
100%
6.1
24.7%
14.9%
9.8%
3.4%
5.04
5.14
-0.4
2028
24
MLBCTX
MIA
9
9
51
215
55
35
6
100%
5.7
25.3%
16.4%
8.9%
2.7%
5.03
4.92
-0.1
2029
25
MLBCTX
MIA
16
16
91
384
98
57
10
100%
5.7
25.5%
14.7%
10.7%
2.7%
4.80
4.69
+0.1
2030
26
MLBCTX
MIA
20
20
119
502
128
72
14
100%
6.0
25.5%
14.3%
11.2%
2.7%
4.69
4.64
+0.2
2031
27
MLBCTX
MIA
21
21
126
532
135
76
15
100%
6.0
25.4%
14.2%
11.2%
2.8%
4.67
4.67
+0.2
2032
28
MLBCTX
MIA
21
21
127
536
136
77
15
100%
6.0
25.3%
14.4%
10.9%
2.9%
4.72
4.75
+0.1
2033
29
MLBCTX
MIA
21
21
124
524
131
76
16
100%
5.9
25.0%
14.6%
10.4%
3.0%
4.81
4.87
-0.1
2034
30
MLBCTX
MIA
20
20
118
498
123
74
16
100%
5.9
24.7%
14.9%
9.8%
3.2%
4.95
5.05
-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
127
127
756
3192
805
467
92
100%
6.0
25.2%
14.6%
10.6%
2.9%
4.79
4.41
+4.3
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
213
124
24
100%
6.0
25.2%
14.6%
10.6%
2.9%
4.79
4.41
+1.1
Career
—
MLE
54
48
205
891
198
135
19
89%
3.8
22.3%
15.1%
7.2%
2.1%
3.64
4.31
+0.3
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
53
47
200
869
194
131
19
89%
3.8
22.3%
15.1%
7.2%
2.1%
3.64
4.31
+0.1
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.