Nate Dohm — OGILVIE

Nate Dohm P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL—45

CMD3050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	75	323	90	32	7	96%	3.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	3.2%	3.24	4.51	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	75	323	90	32	7	96%	3.3	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	3.2%	3.24	4.51	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	75	323	90	32	7	96%	3.3	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	2.2%	3.24	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	13	59	282	64	40	9	54%	2.5	17.5%	16.3%	1.2%	4.0%	7.43	5.88	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	13	59	282	64	40	9	54%	2.5	17.5%	16.3%	1.2%	4.0%	7.43	5.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	24	13	59	282	64	40	9	54%	2.5	22.7%	14.2%	8.5%	3.2%	7.43	4.73	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	5	22	5	3	1	100%	5.2	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	65	304	69	43	10	—	—	22.6%	14.0%	8.6%	3.2%	7.22	5.79	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	69	292	65	31	9	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.61	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	296	67	29	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	296	68	29	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	69	291	67	29	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	67	282	65	29	9	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.57	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	64	270	61	28	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.70	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	30	127	28	13	4	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.49	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	45	20	6	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.36	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	54	23	7	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.33	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	59	249	57	25	7	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	58	26	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	55	25	8	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	308	1302	297	131	38	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.05	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	85	25	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		47	35	134	605	118	83	22	74%	2.9	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.6%	5.09	5.15	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	52	200	901	175	124	32	74%	2.9	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.6%	5.09	5.15	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Dohm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.6%	11.5%	3.1%	—	4.51	22.7%	12.6%	209	-0.30	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	87
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	87
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	82
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	79
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	67	22.6%	10.3%	1.20	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99