Nate Dohm — OGILVIE

Nate Dohm P Peoria Chiefs

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.5%

IP75

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	23	22	75	323	90	32	7	21.1%	11.5%	3.3%	3.24	4.58	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	STL	14	14	75	317	72	32	10	22.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	+0.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	STL	—	—	77	324	75	32	10	23.0%	9.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.45	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	STL	14	14	77	325	75	31	10	23.2%	9.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.42	+0.6
2028	25	MLB	STL	14	14	78	329	78	30	10	23.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.38	4.33	+0.7
2029	26	MLB	STL	14	14	78	329	78	30	10	23.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.31	+0.7
2030	27	MLB	STL	14	14	77	326	78	30	10	23.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.32	4.31	+0.7
2031	28	MLB	STL	14	14	76	321	76	30	10	23.8%	9.3%	3.1%	4.33	4.34	+0.6
2032	29	MLB	STL	14	14	74	314	74	29	10	23.7%	9.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.39	+0.6
2033	30	MLB	STL	13	13	72	305	72	29	10	23.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.45	+0.5
2034	31	MLB	STL	13	13	70	294	68	28	10	23.2%	9.6%	3.3%	4.48	4.52	+0.4
2035	32	MLB	STL	12	12	67	282	65	27	9	22.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.61	+0.3
2036	33	MLB	STL	12	12	64	270	61	27	9	22.6%	9.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.71	+0.2
2037	34	MLB	STL	11	11	61	256	57	26	9	22.3%	10.1%	3.5%	4.75	4.82	+0.1
2038	35	MLB	STL	57	—	57	242	53	25	9	21.9%	10.3%	3.6%	4.86	4.94	+0.0
2039	36	MLB	STL	54	—	54	226	48	24	9	21.5%	10.6%	3.8%	4.99	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	23	77	330	71	37	11	21.6%	11.2%	3.2%	3.27	4.47	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			62	60	200	857	184	96	29	21.6%	11.2%	3.2%	3.27	4.47	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Dohm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.6%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.35	23.6%	14.2%	233	-0.22	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	94
Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	24	SW	4.42	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.22	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.80	4.42	121	91
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	91
Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	90
Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	90
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	90
Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	90
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	90
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	90
Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	4.87	18.2%	10.0%	95	+0.85	4.02	158	89
Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SW	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.70	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.12	3.58	539	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	89
Randall Delgado R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	25	SW	3.73	23.7%	10.1%	2.5%	.284	3.72	20.3%	12.4%	167	-0.01	3.05	290	89
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	23	SW	4.93	21.2%	11.0%	4.0%	.276	5.14	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.21	4.24	469	89
J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	23	SW	3.57	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.95	16.5%	1.9%	184	+1.38	3.57	281	89
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	89
Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	23	SW	3.75	22.5%	8.2%	2.8%	.341	4.60	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.85	3.75	256	88
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SW	4.80	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.03	3.51	140	88
Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	88
Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	24	SW	4.04	22.2%	9.8%	2.9%	.353	4.76	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.72	4.04	106	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.7M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$7M		$15M	+$8M