Nate Dohm
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%21.6%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 75 | 323 | 90 | 32 | 7 | 96% | 3.3 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 3.24 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 75 | 323 | 90 | 32 | 7 | 96% | 3.3 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 18.0% | 2.2% | 3.24 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 14 | 11 | 40 | 191 | 44 | 25 | 3 | 79% | 2.9 | 17.7% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 7.36 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.87 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 102 | 451 | 100 | 55 | 11 | — | — | 22.2% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 5.86 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 56 | 332 | 1402 | 318 | 142 | 46 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.27 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 86 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 33 | 115 | 514 | 102 | 66 | 16 | 89% | 3.1 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 57 | 200 | 891 | 177 | 114 | 28 | 89% | 3.1 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Dohm (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.57 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 191 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 85 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 83 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 81 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 81 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 81 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 81 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 81 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 78 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.92 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.2% | .303 | 5.54 | 15.5% | -1.0% | 161 | -0.38 | 5.38 | 232 | 78 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 78 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 78 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .313 | 3.91 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 166 | -0.16 | 3.53 | 357 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 61 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 1.26 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |