Chase Shores

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1408ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	A+LAA	16	16	63	4.83	3.48	24.2%	11.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.95	4.95	20.5%	12.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAA	5	5	27	4.79	4.71	21.7%	11.6%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAA	6	6	33	4.64	4.55	22.3%	10.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsTJ Shook (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%20.5%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	1.8%	4.83	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.9%	4.95	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	62	260	56	30	7	100%	5.6	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.68	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	50	212	47	23	6	100%	5.6	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.52	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	50	209	47	22	6	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.49	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	48	203	46	22	6	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	27	114	25	13	3	100%	5.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.79	4.71	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	33	139	31	15	4	100%	5.5	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.64	4.55	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	39	165	37	18	5	100%	6.5	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.9%	4.56	4.52	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	41	173	39	19	5	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.55	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	140	591	132	64	17	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.19	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	91	24	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.19	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		16	16	63	277	52	36	6	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	51	200	875	163	113	20	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 63 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.40 (+0.93)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.19%	—	×0.770	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.19%	—	×1.150	12.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Shores (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.57	22.2%	11.1%	161	-0.38	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	90
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	90
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	87
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	87
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	85
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	85
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	84
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	83
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	83
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	21.9%	11.4%	1.11	4.69
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*