Chase Shores
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 22
RHP
6'8" / 245 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%24.4%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 8 | 8 | 28 | 122 | 35 | 15 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 6.18 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 80 | 344 | 89 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 25.9% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.9% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 218 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 205 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 68 | 399 | 1683 | 430 | 159 | 51 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 3.82 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 216 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 28 | 122 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 6.18 | 4.15 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 58 | 200 | 882 | 195 | 125 | 18 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 6.18 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Shores (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 25.5% | 16.0% | 167 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 87 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 86 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 86 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 85 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 84 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 84 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 84 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 83 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 83 |
| River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 82 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 81 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 81 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 80 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 80 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 80 |
| Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 80 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 79 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 79 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 53 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 1.19 | 4.23 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |