Chase Shores — OGILVIE

Chase Shores P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%22.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL3545

CMD3050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	16	16	63	277	67	31	5	100%	4.0	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	1.8%	4.83	3.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	64	271	63	29	8	100%	5.4	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	66	278	66	28	8	100%	5.5	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	68	27	8	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.25	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	68	27	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	277	67	27	8	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	64	269	65	26	8	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	32	135	31	14	4	100%	5.3	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	46	194	46	19	6	100%	5.8	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	55	22	7	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.28	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	59	23	7	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.26	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	60	24	7	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	60	24	8	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.35	4.38	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	308	1302	312	127	39	100%	5.8	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.37	3.96	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	82	25	100%	5.8	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.37	3.96	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		16	16	63	277	52	36	6	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	51	200	875	163	113	20	100%	4.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.8%	2.3%	4.83	4.40	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Shores (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	22.2%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.6%	13.6%	197	-0.35	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	88
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	88
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	86
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	85
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	84
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	23.8%	10.0%	1.14	4.39
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93