Andrew Dutkanych IV

Andrew Dutkanych IV P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%24.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	26.3%	20.0%	6.3%	4.5%	4.08	5.89	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	26.3%	20.0%	6.3%	4.5%	4.08	5.89	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	32.5%	14.3%	18.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	15	11	46	202	55	31	5	73%	3.1	19.8%	16.1%	3.7%	2.2%	5.67	4.69	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	15	11	46	202	55	31	5	73%	3.1	19.8%	16.1%	3.7%	2.2%	5.67	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	STL	4	4	5	26	8	7	2	100%	1.3	30.8%	26.9%	3.8%	7.7%	10.12	8.13	—
2026	23	A RAW	STL	11	7	41	176	47	24	3	64%	3.7	26.7%	13.6%	13.1%	1.7%	5.09	3.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	46	195	48	26	6	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.72	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	47	197	49	24	6	100%	5.8	25.1%	12.0%	13.0%	3.0%	4.63	4.53	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	47	197	50	23	6	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.50	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	46	194	49	23	6	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.9%	13.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	45	188	47	23	6	100%	6.4	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.62	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	20	84	21	11	2	100%	5.0	24.8%	13.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.60	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	31	131	33	16	4	100%	6.2	25.1%	12.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.41	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	37	156	39	19	4	100%	6.2	25.2%	11.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	39	165	41	20	5	100%	6.5	25.1%	11.9%	13.3%	2.8%	4.42	4.41	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	42	20	5	100%	5.7	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	167	703	176	85	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.49	4.07	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	102	24	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.49	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		24	20	64	279	60	48	8	83%	2.7	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.23	5.02	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	63	200	876	189	150	25	83%	2.7	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.23	5.02	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Dutkanych IV (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	24.3%	15.2%	3.0%	—	4.58	25.0%	12.6%	140	-0.44	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	77
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	76
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	75
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	74
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	74
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	73
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	72
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	72
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	72
Landon Sims R 2023 · 6.04 FIP	22	SP	6.04	19.3%	12.9%	5.3%	.302	3.99	19.9%	7.8%	168	-2.05	3.35	184	72
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	71
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	71
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	71
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	71
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	70
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	70
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	40	25.0%	12.3%	1.18	4.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33