Bryce Cunningham

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#477ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+NYY	12	11	54	2.82	3.08	25.0%	8.6%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.02
2026	23	MIX2 levels	21	19	105	4.61	3.99	21.3%	8.6%	—	K 16.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	1	1	1	4.96	4.96	18.6%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	8	8	44	4.92	4.86	20.1%	9.7%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYY	10	10	63	4.81	4.76	20.9%	9.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJustin Armbruester (age 24) · Ian Mejia (age 24) · Austin Love (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%18.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.3%	2.82	4.02	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.3%	2.82	4.02	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	1.8%	2.82	3.08	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	105	451	96	39	13	90%	5.0	16.6%	9.9%	6.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	105	451	96	39	13	90%	5.0	16.6%	9.9%	6.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	105	451	96	39	13	90%	5.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.61	3.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.6%	10.2%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	4.96	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	102	431	86	42	14	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.74	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	95	400	84	38	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.64	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	90	380	80	36	12	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.66	4.66	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	85	359	75	34	12	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.70	4.73	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	333	69	33	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	301	61	30	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.1%	10.1%	3.6%	4.95	5.04	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	44	186	37	18	6	100%	5.5	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.4%	4.92	4.86	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	63	266	56	25	9	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	3.4%	4.81	4.76	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	70	296	62	28	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.78	4.78	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	72	304	63	29	11	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.5%	4.82	4.85	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	69	291	60	29	11	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.7%	4.93	4.99	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	55	27	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.1%	10.1%	3.9%	5.08	5.17	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	381	1609	332	156	57	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.89	4.52	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	82	30	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.89	4.52	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		33	30	160	671	117	67	21	91%	4.8	17.5%	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	4.00	4.61	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	841	147	83	27	91%	4.8	17.5%	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	4.00	4.61	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 80 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.91 (+0.89)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.49%	—	×0.770	15.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.150	12.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 25 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.88 (+1.04)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.84%	—	×0.810	22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.06%	—	×1.100	2.27%
HR / BF /BF	5.15%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 54 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.02 (+0.94)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.150	9.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.969	×1.250	2.35%

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Cunningham (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.68	20.6%	11.1%	287	-0.28	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	92
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	89
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	88
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	88
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	87
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	87
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	86
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	86
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	86
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	86
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	86
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	85
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	85
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	92	20.2%	9.8%	1.26	4.80
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81