Bryce Cunningham

Bryce Cunningham P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%20.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD3545

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.3%	2.82	4.02	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.3%	2.82	4.02	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	11	54	220	55	19	4	92%	4.5	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	1.8%	2.82	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	21	19	105	451	96	39	13	90%	5.0	16.6%	9.9%	6.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.90	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	21	19	105	451	96	39	13	90%	5.0	16.6%	9.9%	6.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYY	17	15	80	354	69	37	8	88%	4.7	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	2.3%	4.71	4.02	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYY	4	4	25	97	27	2	5	100%	6.2	27.8%	2.1%	25.8%	5.2%	4.32	3.84	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	6	24	5	2	1	100%	5.6	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	111	475	101	41	14	—	—	21.3%	8.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	106	447	97	42	13	100%	5.6	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.42	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	452	101	41	13	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.32	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	452	103	41	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	445	101	41	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	102	432	97	40	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	98	413	92	39	13	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.54	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	92	388	85	38	13	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	86	361	78	37	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	46	194	42	18	6	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.1%	4.59	4.53	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	67	27	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.1%	4.49	4.43	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	85	359	82	33	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.1%	13.7%	3.1%	4.44	4.40	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	90	380	86	35	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	87	36	12	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	3.2%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	89	376	84	36	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.4%	4.60	4.66	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	85	359	79	35	13	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.85	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	80	338	73	34	13	100%	6.2	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	3.8%	4.93	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	636	2684	598	253	89	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.3%	4.59	4.23	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	80	28	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.3%	4.59	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		33	30	160	671	117	67	21	91%	4.8	17.5%	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	4.00	4.61	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	841	147	83	27	91%	4.8	17.5%	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	4.00	4.61	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Cunningham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.7%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.34	22.3%	13.1%	320	-0.26	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	88
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	87
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	86
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	85
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	84
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	83
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Levi Stoudt R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.58	15.7%	5.8%	289	+1.00	4.35	395	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Jordan Romano R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.95	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	687	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	96	22.2%	9.5%	1.18	4.47
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98