Kolten Smith — OGILVIE

Kolten Smith P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%22.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	16	79	364	100	42	8	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	16	79	364	100	42	8	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	19	7	53	226	68	18	3	37%	2.8	30.1%	8.0%	22.1%	1.3%	5.64	2.30	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIN	9	9	26	138	32	24	5	100%	2.9	23.2%	17.4%	5.8%	3.6%	7.18	5.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	80	339	78	36	10	100%	5.4	23.1%	10.5%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.49	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	82	347	82	34	10	100%	5.5	23.5%	9.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	83	352	84	33	10	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.25	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	83	352	84	32	10	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	82	347	83	32	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	336	87	29	10	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.08	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	76	321	82	28	10	100%	5.8	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.19	4.21	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	71	301	76	28	10	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	3.4%	4.31	4.39	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	67	281	70	27	10	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	3.6%	4.48	4.59	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	62	260	63	26	10	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	3.9%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	39	165	38	17	5	100%	5.6	23.1%	10.5%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	57	241	57	23	7	100%	5.7	23.5%	9.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	68	287	68	27	8	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.26	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	73	308	74	28	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	74	312	75	29	9	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	73	308	80	27	10	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	3.1%	4.17	4.09	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	71	300	77	27	10	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.20	4.22	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	67	283	71	26	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	3.4%	4.32	4.40	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	66	25	10	100%	6.3	24.9%	9.5%	15.3%	3.7%	4.49	4.60	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	59	249	61	25	10	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	3.9%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	109	644	2719	666	255	87	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.2%	4.36	3.98	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	79	27	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.2%	4.36	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		28	16	79	364	75	49	10	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	41	200	922	190	124	26	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kolten Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	22.2%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.5%	13.6%	246	-0.36	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	82
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	76
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	76
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	72	24.3%	9.5%	1.22	4.37
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33