Kolten Smith

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1106ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	28	16	79	6.15	3.48	27.5%	11.5%	—	K 20.6% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.01	5.01	20.9%	12.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	5	5	26	4.84	4.77	21.7%	11.6%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	37	4.69	4.61	22.2%	10.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · Patrick Halligan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%20.9%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	79	364	100	42	8	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	79	364	100	42	8	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	79	364	100	42	8	57%	2.8	27.5%	11.5%	15.9%	2.2%	6.15	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	60	255	55	30	8	100%	5.5	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.83	4.76	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	56	238	53	26	7	100%	5.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.60	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	56	234	53	25	7	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.56	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	227	51	24	7	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	51	215	48	23	7	100%	6.4	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	47	199	44	22	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.81	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	42	179	39	20	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	11.4%	10.4%	3.5%	4.89	4.99	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	26	110	24	13	3	100%	5.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.84	4.77	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	37	156	35	17	5	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.61	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	44	186	42	20	6	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.61	4.57	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	44	21	6	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	45	190	42	21	6	100%	5.6	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.69	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	40	20	6	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.76	4.82	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	36	19	6	100%	6.5	21.7%	11.4%	10.4%	3.5%	4.90	5.00	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	280	1183	262	130	37	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.34	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	93	26	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		28	16	79	364	75	49	10	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	41	200	922	190	124	26	57%	2.8	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.59	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 53 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.36 (+1.06)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.09%	—	×0.740	22.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.96%	—	×1.180	9.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 26 IPFIP 5.33 → 6.61 (+1.28)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.770	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.150	20.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.62%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.33 → 6.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kolten Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	20.9%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.64	22.1%	11.1%	172	-0.37	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	90
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	88
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	84
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	83
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Robinson Tejeda R 2005 · 3.81 FIP	23	SP-	3.81	19.4%	12.7%	1.4%	.251	4.96	16.1%	4.4%	214	+1.15	3.40	435	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	80
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	80
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	80
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	79
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	22.0%	11.2%	1.19	4.75
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*