Kolten Smith
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 20 | 8 | 56 | 243 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 40% | 2.8 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 3.36 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 93 | 399 | 108 | 34 | 8 | — | — | 27.2% | 8.6% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 5.10 | 3.74 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 184 | 776 | 193 | 66 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.70 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 72 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 20 | 8 | 56 | 243 | 54 | 23 | 4 | 40% | 2.8 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 3.36 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 29 | 200 | 868 | 193 | 82 | 15 | 40% | 2.8 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kolten Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.09 | 24.5% | 16.0% | 117 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 86 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 83 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 82 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 82 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 82 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 81 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 80 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 80 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 80 |
| Yon Castro R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .297 | 4.53 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 167 | +1.32 | 3.21 | 274 | 79 |
| Julian Garcia R 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.15 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .314 | 5.03 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 177 | +1.88 | 1.61 | 328 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 78 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 78 |
| Ben Anderson R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 78 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 78 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.17 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.93 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 948 | 78 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 39 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 1.14 | 4.14 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |