Kerrington Cross

3B Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1284ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	ASD	61	.190/.433/.214	0	1	60	—	.152/.350/.174
2026	24	AA/A+/ASD	461	.277/.415/.500	18	21	92	—	.216/.322/.383
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBSD	380	.210/.312/.350	10	8	90	0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	26	MLBSD	157	.208/.310/.349	4	3	90	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	27	MLBSD	225	.209/.309/.349	6	4	90	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%78

Chase%61

wOBA55

wRC+55

ISO51

K%45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsZack Short (age 24) · Peyton Burdick (age 25) · Corey Joyce (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .310 / .347

PA210

HR5

K%28

BB%12

ISO141

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	42	8	1	0	0	14	15	4	1	1	190	433	214	648	24	296	25	23	333	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	22	20	6	1	0	1	2	5	0	1	1	300	364	500	864	200	357	23	9	381	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	211	176	42	9	0	6	32	53	3	3	4	239	365	392	757	153	308	25	15	346	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	228	176	55	15	2	11	46	53	5	17	2	312	467	608	1.075	295	393	23	20	463	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	46	7	1	0	0	10	21	4	1	1	152	350	174	524	22	267	34	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	22	21	6	1	0	1	1	6	0	1	1	286	318	476	794	190	322	27	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	211	186	35	7	0	5	22	67	3	3	4	188	284	306	591	118	256	32	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	228	191	45	12	2	8	31	72	5	17	2	236	357	445	802	209	327	32	14	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	46	7	1	0	0	10	21	4	1	1	152	350	174	524	22	280	34	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	42	8	1	0	0	14	15	4	1	1	190	433	214	648	24	296	25	23	333	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	3 teams	—	461	397	85	19	2	14	55	145	8	21	7	214	322	378	700	164	298	31	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A RAW	3 teams	—	461	372	103	25	2	18	80	111	8	21	7	277	415	500	915	223	350	24	17	406	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	47	7	1	0	0	10	21	4	1	1	149	350	170	520	21	267	34	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	3 teams	—	461	395	85	19	2	14	55	145	8	21	7	215	322	380	701	165	294	31	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	61	47	7	1	0	0	10	21	4	1	1	149	350	170	520	21	267	34	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	3 teams	—	461	395	85	19	2	14	55	145	8	21	7	215	322	380	701	165	294	31	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	380	328	69	13	2	10	44	106	5	8	3	210	312	350	663	141	273	28	12	301	90	-5	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	38%	416	360	76	15	2	11	48	115	5	8	3	211	313	353	665	142	274	28	12	302	90	-5	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	52%	432	374	80	16	2	11	49	119	6	8	3	212	312	353	665	141	274	28	11	302	90	-5	+0	+0	+2	+9	0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	60%	297	258	55	11	1	8	33	81	4	5	2	212	310	351	661	139	274	27	11	300	89	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SD	62%	296	257	54	11	1	7	33	81	4	5	2	211	308	347	655	136	273	27	11	297	87	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	SD	63%	294	257	53	10	1	7	32	81	3	4	2	209	305	342	646	133	272	28	11	294	85	-5	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	38%	157	136	28	5	1	4	18	43	2	3	1	208	310	349	659	141	268	27	11	299	90	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	52%	225	195	41	8	1	6	25	62	3	4	2	209	309	349	658	141	269	28	11	299	90	-3	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	60%	177	153	33	6	1	5	20	48	2	3	1	208	307	347	655	139	269	27	11	297	89	-2	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SD	62%	182	158	33	6	1	5	20	50	2	3	1	208	305	343	648	136	268	27	11	295	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	SD	63%	184	160	34	6	1	5	20	51	2	3	1	206	302	338	640	132	266	28	11	291	85	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	925	802	169	31	5	25	103	254	11	16	6	211	309	355	664	145	273	27	11	296	89	-13	+1	-3	+3	+20	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	120	22	4	18	72	178	8	11	4	213	311	362	673	149	274	27	11	296	89	-9	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2467	2130	447	90	10	63	284	701	37	56	21	210	313	350	664	140	279	28	12	299	89	-26	+2	-4	+7	+42	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	119	24	3	17	75	185	10	15	6	212	316	357	672	144	283	28	12	299	89	-9	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 228 PAwOBA .452 → .347 (−105)K% 23.2% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.25%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	13.64%
HBP% /PA	2.19%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.68%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.977	×0.980	19.33%
Doubles /BIP	12.20%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.977	×0.980	9.69%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.977	×0.980	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	8.94%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	7.01%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .452 → .347; ISO .295 → .231; BABIP .393 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 211 PAwOBA .338 → .258 (−79)K% 25.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.12%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	31.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.17%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	10.64%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	1.11%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.953	×0.988	19.01%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.953	×0.988	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.953	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	3.86%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .338 → .258; ISO .153 → .116; BABIP .308 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 22 PAwOBA .370 → .306 (−64)K% 22.7% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.012	24.83%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.012	5.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.40%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .370 → .306; ISO .200 → .158; BABIP .357 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 61 PAwOBA .327 → .257 (−70)K% 24.6% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.59%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	34.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.95%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.990	16.47%
HBP% /PA	6.56%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	5.06%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷0.989	×0.920	—	×0.990	23.88%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.062	×0.830	—	×0.990	2.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .327 → .257; ISO .024 → .018; BABIP .296 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Rene Gonzales'84-'97 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	19	23	236*	311*	337*	+4	+11	1.9	2.8
/162	664	7	9	+1.6	+4.2	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.7	1,136	29	20	212	307	351	+4	+2	2.1	2.1
/162	664	17	12	+2.4	+1.2	1.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kerrington Cross (OGILVIE)	25	30	45	52	65	208/310/347	140	273	5	4	28%	12%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	40→34	51→50	45→50	46	202/298/366	164	295	19	9	36%	10%	89	+0.5	184/270/334	150	284	17	12	39%	9%	72	-0.7	166/253/310	144	262	17	13	41%	8%	58	-1.3
✕Corey Joyce 2024 · AAA	25	42	43→40	50	48	204/305/319	115	291	11	13	31%	10%	81	-0.1	217/305/313	96	303	8	15	29%	9%	79	-0.2	219/295/310	91	293	10	16	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Braxton Fulford 2024 · AA	25	43→41	46→50	49→50	43	213/294/344	130	292	14	9	30%	8%	82	+0.0	212/286/353	141	292	15	11	31%	7%	81	-0.1	202/279/347	145	279	15	13	31%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Brandon Meredith 2015 · AA	25	40→39	50	43→45	47	210/290/365	155	269	18	7	28%	9%	86	+0.3	213/280/334	121	286	13	8	29%	8%	74	-0.5	194/257/282	89	260	10	5	28%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	41→45	50	43→45	44	212/287/367	154	275	17	7	29%	7%	85	+0.2	220/300/368	148	290	16	5	28%	9%	90	+0.6	215/299/360	144	285	15	3	28%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Tim Tawa 2024 · AA	25	41→45	45→55	46→50	47	206/274/323	116	267	13	11	27%	8%	70	-0.9	221/283/374	153	274	18	12	26%	7%	85	+0.2	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/350	141	280	16	3	30%	10%	85	+0.2	200/274/302	102	285	10	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	158/229/219	60	230	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Paul McIntosh 2023 · AA	25	44→43	51→45	47→45	50	225/309/392	167	280	17	11	26%	9%	99	+1.2	216/289/345	129	275	15	8	26%	8%	80	-0.1	207/279/325	117	259	15	5	25%	7%	69	-0.5
✕Carlos Narváez 2024 · AAA	25	38→45	46→45	45	46	193/282/317	124	279	14	7	34%	10%	72	-0.7	212/291/338	126	290	14	7	30%	9%	80	-0.2	205/284/324	120	276	13	6	29%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→40	50	45	199/284/317	118	274	12	12	31%	8%	73	-0.6	204/294/293	89	285	8	11	29%	9%	71	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	37→35	47→50	50→55	40	194/258/321	126	272	15	14	34%	7%	63	-1.3	225/298/353	128	316	12	16	31%	8%	85	+0.2	240/316/371	130	330	11	18	28%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→41	51→55	46→45	47	194/276/357	163	259	19	7	32%	9%	78	-0.3	192/259/327	135	269	16	6	33%	7%	65	-1.2	167/233/291	124	223	18	2	34%	6%	45	-1.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Luis Santana 2024 · AA	25	44	47→45	47→50	40	223/275/357	134	284	15	8	27%	5%	78	-0.3	205/264/312	107	256	11	8	24%	6%	63	-1.3	166/234/244	78	199	10	5	22%	6%	36	-1.8
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2024 · AA	25	43→38	46→45	49→45	43	212/287/341	128	289	13	5	30%	7%	79	-0.2	201/276/303	102	266	10	8	27%	7%	66	-1.1	163/244/240	77	216	8	6	27%	6%	38	-2.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2024 · AA	25	37→40	42→45	45→55	57	183/289/284	100	237	9	12	25%	12%	68	-1.0	214/304/334	120	266	10	22	22%	11%	84	+0.1	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jesús Bastidas 2024 · AAA	25	42	47→50	47→50	41	214/282/345	132	284	16	13	30%	6%	78	-0.3	207/274/345	138	271	15	13	29%	6%	75	-0.5	196/264/333	138	256	16	13	29%	5%	66	-0.8

Kerrington Cross

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps