AJ Smith-Shawver

P Atlanta Braves

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	22	22	93	4.63	4.97	28.7%	10.8%	-0.1	K 24.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.70
2025	22	MIX2 levels	11	11	54	4.02	3.42	23.7%	10.8%	1.0	K 21.9% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.78
2026	23	MIX3 levels	16	12	60	4.20	4.05	23.9%	9.8%	0.6	K 21.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	14	14	76	4.65	4.74	23.1%	10.5%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBATL	15	15	90	4.64	4.63	23.5%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBATL	17	17	101	4.62	4.61	23.7%	9.9%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.564First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

Whiff%36

xwOBA vs30

K%27

CompsRyan Garcia (age 24) · Rafael Montero (age 23) · Trent Palmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.65

FIP4.74

K%23.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD4050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

FB+1.6 (47%)

CU (15%)

SL-4.3 (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.77	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.98	—
2022	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	25.5%	15.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.11	3.74	—
2022	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	34.4%	13.0%	21.4%	1.3%	5.11	2.56	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	3.5%	3.19	4.51	+0.4
2023	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	27.7%	12.3%	15.4%	3.1%	3.19	3.98	+1.0
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	6.2%	4.63	5.70	-0.8
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	6.2%	4.63	5.70	-0.8
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	28.7%	10.8%	17.9%	5.4%	4.63	4.97	-0.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+0.7
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+0.7
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	1.7%	4.02	3.42	+1.0
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.20	4.31	+0.4
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.20	4.31	+0.4
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.20	4.05	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	20	105	459	93	50	18	80%	4.2	20.3%	10.9%	9.4%	3.9%	4.61	4.98	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	14	14	76	321	74	34	11	100%	5.4	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	95	399	94	40	14	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.63	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	107	450	107	45	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.61	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	460	109	46	16	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.5%	4.64	4.65	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	460	108	47	16	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.73	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	104	440	101	46	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.90	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	98	413	92	44	16	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.9%	4.99	5.10	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	90	380	89	38	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.63	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	101	426	101	42	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.61	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	104	439	104	44	15	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.5%	4.64	4.65	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	104	439	103	45	16	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.73	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	99	418	96	43	16	100%	6.2	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	4.82	4.90	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	93	393	87	42	15	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.9%	4.99	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	119	695	2951	673	304	107	96%	5.6	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.71	4.47	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	849	194	87	31	96%	5.6	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.71	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		91	86	371	1571	377	189	56	95%	4.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.31	4.55	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	846	203	102	30	95%	4.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.31	4.55	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Smith-Shawver (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	23.1%	10.5%	3.4%	—	4.63	23.6%	13.7%	310	-0.11	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	80
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	75
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	74
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	74
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	74
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	74
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.88	21.4%	13.4%	369	-0.61	3.03	492	73
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	73
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	73
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	80	22.9%	10.3%	1.40	4.71
Dave Danforth ('11-'25, 7 WAR*)	5.9	119	23.6%*	8.9%*	1.43*	4.46*
Héctor Santiago ('21)	4.7	105	20.7%	10.6%	1.38	4.12
Charley Hall ('06-'18, 2 WAR*)	4.5	114	20.2%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.51*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92