Miguel Mendez — OGILVIE

Miguel Mendez P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%23.1%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4545

CMD3545

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	11	40	180	40	21	1	92%	3.4	15.1%	14.6%	0.5%	0.6%	4.91	4.03	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	11	40	180	40	21	1	92%	3.4	22.2%	11.7%	10.6%	0.6%	4.91	3.00	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	22	103	35	16	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.3%	7.89	4.12	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	22	103	35	16	1	0%	1.1	34.0%	15.5%	18.4%	1.0%	7.89	2.68	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	15	15	54	248	50	33	5	100%	3.6	14.9%	15.7%	-0.8%	2.3%	5.96	5.11	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	15	15	54	248	50	33	5	100%	3.6	14.9%	15.7%	-0.8%	2.3%	5.96	5.11	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	15	15	54	248	50	33	5	100%	3.6	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	2.0%	5.96	4.28	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	17.3%	17.6%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.86	4.69	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	17.3%	17.6%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.86	4.69	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	1.1%	3.86	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.22	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.22	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	29.4%	11.2%	18.2%	1.7%	3.22	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	18	18	50	224	56	24	2	100%	2.8	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.2%	5.62	3.47	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	18	18	50	224	56	24	2	100%	2.8	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.2%	5.62	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	SF	1	1	2	10	1	2	0	100%	2.3	10.0%	20.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	3.86	4.79	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	SF	2	2	2	9	2	0	0	100%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.22	—
2026	24	AA RAW	SF	15	15	45	205	53	22	2	100%	3.0	25.9%	10.7%	15.1%	1.0%	5.76	2.81	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	8	32	7	5	1	100%	7.6	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	57	256	63	29	3	—	—	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	1.1%	5.53	3.66	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	109	461	109	60	13	100%	5.7	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.67	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	121	511	122	64	14	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.64	4.60	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	119	504	120	63	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	116	489	116	61	15	100%	6.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.69	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	110	467	109	59	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	3.1%	4.76	4.82	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	439	101	57	15	100%	6.1	23.1%	13.0%	10.1%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	53	224	53	29	6	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.55	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	84	355	85	45	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.48	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	94	397	95	49	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.50	4.50	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	99	418	99	52	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	12.5%	11.2%	2.8%	4.54	4.57	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	98	414	97	52	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.69	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	94	397	92	52	12	100%	5.9	23.1%	13.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	522	2203	519	279	61	100%	6.0	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.24	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	107	23	100%	6.0	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		107	85	343	1525	291	226	25	79%	3.2	19.1%	14.8%	4.2%	1.7%	4.65	4.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	50	200	890	170	132	15	79%	3.2	19.1%	14.8%	4.2%	1.7%	4.65	4.29	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	23.1%	14.7%	2.8%	—	4.63	23.8%	11.1%	350	-0.29	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	84
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	77
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	77
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	77
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	76
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	76
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	76
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	76
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	76
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	109	23.6%	12.9%	1.14	4.74
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88