Miguel Mendez

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#545ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASD	22	20	82	3.86	3.65	23.4%	14.9%	—	K 17.3% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.69
2025	23	MIX3 levels	21	21	95	3.22	2.99	29.4%	11.2%	—	K 22.8% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.02
2026	24	MIX3 levels	18	18	50	5.62	2.82	25.0%	10.7%	—	K 20.9% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	1	1	6	4.65	4.65	23.2%	13.5%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSF	6	6	39	4.47	4.46	23.5%	12.8%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSF	8	8	49	4.46	4.47	23.4%	12.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 25) · Andrew Politi (age 25) · Sean Mooney (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%23.2%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	11	40	180	40	21	1	92%	3.4	15.1%	14.6%	0.5%	0.6%	4.91	4.03	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	11	40	180	40	21	1	92%	3.4	22.2%	11.7%	10.6%	0.6%	4.91	3.00	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	22	103	35	16	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.3%	7.89	4.12	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	22	103	35	16	1	0%	1.1	34.0%	15.5%	18.4%	1.0%	7.89	2.68	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	15	15	54	248	50	33	5	100%	3.6	14.9%	15.7%	-0.8%	2.3%	5.96	5.11	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	15	15	54	248	50	33	5	100%	3.6	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	2.0%	5.96	4.28	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	17.3%	17.6%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.86	4.69	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	17.3%	17.6%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.86	4.69	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	82	368	86	55	4	91%	3.7	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	1.1%	3.86	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.22	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.22	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	402	118	45	7	100%	4.5	29.4%	11.2%	18.2%	1.7%	3.22	2.99	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	50	224	56	24	2	100%	2.8	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.2%	5.62	3.47	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	50	224	56	24	2	100%	2.8	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.2%	5.62	3.47	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	50	224	56	24	2	100%	2.8	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	0.9%	5.62	2.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	23.2%	13.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.65	4.65	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	81	340	80	44	9	100%	6.2	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	2.6%	4.58	4.57	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	74	313	73	39	8	100%	6.2	23.4%	12.5%	10.9%	2.7%	4.57	4.58	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	69	293	68	36	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.65	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	64	271	62	34	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.6%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.77	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	58	244	55	31	8	100%	5.8	22.6%	12.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.94	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	39	165	39	21	4	100%	6.5	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	2.4%	4.47	4.46	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	49	207	48	26	5	100%	6.1	23.4%	12.5%	10.9%	2.5%	4.46	4.47	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	54	228	53	28	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	2.6%	4.49	4.53	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	53	224	51	28	6	100%	5.9	22.9%	12.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	50	211	48	27	6	100%	6.2	22.6%	12.8%	9.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.81	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1032	239	130	27	100%	6.0	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.21	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	195	106	22	100%	6.0	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		107	85	343	1525	291	226	25	79%	3.2	19.1%	14.8%	4.2%	1.7%	4.65	4.29	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	50	200	890	170	132	15	79%	3.2	19.1%	14.8%	4.2%	1.7%	4.65	4.29	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 45 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.47 (+0.66)K% 25.9% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.810	20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.73%	—	×1.100	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 61 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.56 (+0.96)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×1.150	11.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.941	×1.250	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 22 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.99 (+1.19)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.04%	—	×0.810	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.89%	—	×1.100	17.48%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷0.950	×1.200	4.72%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 11 IPFIP 1.07 → 2.05 (+0.97)K% 36.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.740	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.936	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 1.07 → 2.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 82 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.69 (+1.07)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.37%	—	×0.740	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.95%	—	×1.180	17.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.953	×1.300	1.48%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 54 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.11 (+0.92)K% 20.2% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.16%	—	×0.740	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.31%	—	×1.180	15.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.121	×1.300	2.34%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Padres · 20 IPFIP 2.53 → 4.12 (+1.59)K% 35.4% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.42%	—	×0.680	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.250	18.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.081	×1.400	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Padres · 40 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.03 (+1.02)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.680	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×1.250	14.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.199	×1.400	0.65%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.60	23.4%	10.8%	224	-0.05	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	82
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	80
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	78
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	77
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	76
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	76
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	75
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	75
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	75
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	74
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	74
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	74
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	23.2%	12.8%	1.09	4.65
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91