Miguel Mendez
P
San Antonio Missions
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%10.1%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
OFP—50
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 11 | 40 | 180 | 40 | 21 | 1 | 15.1% | 14.6% | 0.6% | 4.91 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 19 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 24.1% | 18.2% | 1.1% | 7.89 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 15 | 54 | 248 | 50 | 33 | 5 | 14.9% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 5.96 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 20 | 82 | 368 | 86 | 55 | 4 | 17.3% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 3.86 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 118 | 45 | 7 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 4.04 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 3 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 2.87 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 47 | 199 | 47 | 24 | 4 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 95 | 46 | 12 | 22.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 103 | 48 | 13 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 106 | 49 | 13 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 467 | 106 | 49 | 13 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 48 | 13 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 99 | 47 | 13 | 22.3% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 94 | 46 | 13 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 89 | 45 | 13 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 84 | 44 | 13 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 79 | 42 | 12 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 73 | 41 | 12 | 20.7% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 73 | 36 | 12 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 70 | 306 | 1353 | 256 | 206 | 23 | 18.9% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 46 | 200 | 885 | 168 | 135 | 15 | 18.9% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Mendez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 317 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 94 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 92 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 91 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 90 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 89 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 89 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 89 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 89 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 89 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 88 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.34 | 4.10 | 127 | 87 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 87 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.86 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.29 | 2.95 | 246 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.8% | .314 | 4.65 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.52 | 4.13 | 103 | 86 |
| Cameron Junker R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.29 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.95 | 13.9% | -2.4% | 70 | +0.66 | 4.01 | 147 | 86 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.61 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.69 | 4.92 | 103 | 86 |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.59 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 108 | -0.14 | 3.20 | 313 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $10M | $32M | +$23M | ||