Miguel Mendez
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 112
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%23.0%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 11 | 40 | 180 | 40 | 21 | 1 | 92% | 3.4 | 15.1% | 14.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 4.91 | 3.98 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 11 | 40 | 180 | 40 | 21 | 1 | 92% | 3.4 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 0.6% | 4.91 | 3.00 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 18.2% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 7.89 | 4.06 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.0% | 15.5% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 7.89 | 2.68 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 15 | 54 | 248 | 50 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 3.6 | 14.9% | 15.7% | -0.8% | 2.1% | 5.96 | 4.99 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 15 | 54 | 248 | 50 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.2% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 5.96 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 20 | 82 | 368 | 86 | 55 | 4 | 91% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 17.6% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 20 | 82 | 368 | 86 | 55 | 4 | 91% | 3.7 | 23.4% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 3.86 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 118 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.22 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 118 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.4% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 2.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 11 | 11 | 35 | 153 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 20.1% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 4.93 | 2.95 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 95 | 408 | 97 | 55 | 7 | — | — | 23.7% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 4.94 | 4.22 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 24 | 102 | 24 | 15 | 3 | — | — | 23.0% | 14.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 108 | 60 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 121 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 119 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 115 | 61 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 110 | 467 | 108 | 59 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 100 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 92 | 55 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 70 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 95 | 51 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 101 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 102 | 54 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 98 | 54 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 93 | 53 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 85 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 679 | 2868 | 667 | 370 | 86 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 109 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 78 | 328 | 1454 | 275 | 219 | 23 | 78% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.27 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 48 | 200 | 887 | 168 | 133 | 14 | 78% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Mendez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.67 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 350 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 80 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 79 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 79 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 78 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 78 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 78 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 78 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 77 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 77 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 77 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 77 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 76 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 76 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 76 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.67 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 4.9% | .274 | 4.57 | 17.5% | -0.1% | 110 | -1.10 | 3.43 | 242 | 75 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 75 |
| Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.08 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 129 | 75 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 75 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 105 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 1.19 | 4.82 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |