Payton Green — OGILVIE

Payton GreenSS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 205 lbs AA HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION207 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .263 / .325

PA138

HR3

SB5

K%34

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO127

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	52	8	2	0	0	10	19	1	4	1	154	302	192	494	38	235	29	15	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	49	9	2	0	0	13	14	1	4	1	184	365	224	590	41	250	22	20	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	382	345	70	15	1	6	25	121	6	9	7	203	269	304	573	101	286	32	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	382	334	89	18	2	8	35	87	6	9	7	266	346	404	750	138	331	23	9	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	MIA	—	207	187	33	8	1	6	14	84	5	14	3	176	252	326	579	150	278	41	7	252	51	-11	+2	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
YTD	23	AA	MIA	—	207	179	40	11	1	7	22	66	5	14	3	223	325	413	739	190	311	32	11	330	111	+3	+2	+0	+2	+6	1.2
ROS	23	AA	MIA	2%	138	126	25	5	1	3	9	47	2	5	1	198	263	325	588	127	283	34	7	262	59	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB	MIA	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						278	33	0	246	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	MIA	—	210	190	33	8	1	6	14	85	5	14	3	174	249	321	570	147	273	40	7	252	51	-12	+2	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
TOT	23	AA	MIA	—	345	313	58	13	2	9	23	131	7	19	4	185	257	326	582	141	282	38	7	256	54	-18	+2	+0	+4	+10	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	MIA	31%	434	394	79	17	2	10	30	143	7	13	4	201	269	330	599	129	284	33	7	271	66	-17	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.1
2028	25	MLB	MIA	45%	464	421	87	19	2	11	33	148	7	14	4	207	275	340	615	133	285	32	7	277	71	-15	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.4
2029	26	MLB	MIA	51%	481	436	90	19	2	12	35	152	7	15	4	206	276	342	618	135	286	32	7	281	73	-15	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2030	27	MLB	MIA	53%	486	440	92	20	2	12	36	152	7	15	4	209	280	345	625	136	286	31	7	282	74	-14	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2031	28	MLB	MIA	53%	484	437	90	19	2	12	37	152	7	14	4	206	279	341	620	135	285	31	8	281	73	-15	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.5
2032	29	MLB	MIA	53%	476	430	89	19	2	12	36	151	7	13	4	207	279	344	623	137	285	32	8	279	72	-15	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.3
2033	30	MLB	MIA	52%	467	421	86	18	2	11	36	149	7	11	3	204	278	335	613	131	284	32	8	277	70	-16	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.1
2027	24	MLB	MIA	31%	135	123	24	5	1	3	9	44	2	4	1	195	261	325	586	130	279	33	7	256	54	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	MIA	45%	207	187	38	8	1	5	15	66	3	6	2	203	273	337	610	134	280	32	7	262	59	-10	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	MIA	51%	245	221	46	10	1	6	18	77	4	8	2	208	280	344	624	136	281	31	7	266	61	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.0
2030	27	MLB	MIA	53%	255	230	47	10	1	6	19	80	4	8	2	204	277	335	611	130	281	31	7	267	62	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.0
2031	28	MLB	MIA	53%	258	233	47	10	1	6	19	81	4	8	2	202	273	330	604	129	280	31	7	266	62	-11	+1	-0	+3	+7	-0.1
2032	29	MLB	MIA	53%	250	225	46	10	1	6	19	79	4	7	2	204	278	338	616	133	280	32	8	265	61	-11	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.2
2033	30	MLB	MIA	52%	243	218	44	9	1	6	19	78	4	6	2	202	278	335	613	133	279	32	8	262	59	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1596	1440	292	62	7	38	118	506	25	47	13	203	275	335	610	132	281	32	7	264	60	-72	+4	-2	+17	+45	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	118	25	3	15	48	206	10	19	5	201	273	331	604	130	280	32	7	264	60	-29	+2	-1	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	3877	3502	716	153	16	89	287	1234	58	113	36	204	276	334	609	129	285	32	7	275	68	-139	+8	-4	+42	+110	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	121	26	3	15	48	207	10	19	6	206	278	337	615	131	287	32	7	275	68	-23	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	49	9	2	0	0	13	14	1	4	1	184	365	224	590	41	250	22	20	288	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	107	93	22	4	0	2	11	24	2	3	1	237	327	344	671	108	299	22	10	308	94	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	275	241	67	14	2	6	24	63	4	6	6	278	353	427	781	149	343	23	9	342	120	+6	-1	—	—	+8	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,600	40	47	208	276	344	+17	+9	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	16	19	208	276	344	+7.1	+3.7	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Payton Green (OGILVIE)	23	45	40	45	35	185/257/326	141	282	9	19	38%	7%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Orlando Calixte 2015 · AA	23	43→51	43→45	45→55	37	215/253/324	109	297	10	10	31%	5%	56	-1.3	214/249/319	105	282	10	19	27%	4%	53	-1.5	233/273/324	91	306	9	20	26%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	42→50	45	38	210/257/311	101	291	10	11	31%	5%	54	-1.4	229/288/359	130	302	15	9	28%	6%	81	+0.4	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Nick Allen 2022 · AAA	23	45→55	43→40	48→50	41	224/269/338	114	284	11	14	25%	5%	66	-0.6	230/285/323	93	276	8	15	19%	7%	69	-0.4	242/303/316	74	289	6	16	17%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Adan Velazquez 2013 · AAA	23	47→52	41→45	48→50	39	229/269/326	98	303	9	12	27%	5%	63	-0.8	244/283/347	103	296	9	7	20%	5%	74	-0.1	247/284/345	98	297	9	4	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	42→50	40→45	47→50	41	200/273/299	98	286	7	11	31%	6%	59	-1.1	217/287/310	93	290	7	13	26%	7%	68	-0.5	209/292/304	96	279	9	16	26%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Jake Rucker 2023 · AAA	23	43	42→45	48→45	44	207/284/323	116	291	8	12	30%	8%	69	-0.4	205/266/316	111	271	10	9	27%	6%	59	-1.1	194/254/312	118	225	14	9	20%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Tony Thomas 2010 · AA	24	44→46	43→50	45→55	40	216/271/329	113	295	10	13	30%	6%	66	-0.6	205/254/332	127	283	12	16	31%	5%	59	-1.1	193/240/324	131	266	12	19	31%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	42→40	47→45	40	213/257/317	104	272	10	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	225/280/319	94	262	9	8	18%	6%	66	-0.6	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Juan Zabala 2022 · AA	23	40	44→40	45→50	37	198/253/312	114	299	12	7	36%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/311	97	297	10	16	29%	7%	63	-0.8	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Ivan Jimenez 2016 · AAA	23	45	41→40	46→55	39	219/261/315	95	303	8	10	30%	5%	56	-1.3	247/296/337	90	319	6	15	23%	6%	77	+0.1	283/345/374	90	354	3	18	19%	7%	101	+0.7
✕Charlie Culberson 2012 · AA	23	43→49	41→45	50	35	212/243/310	98	280	9	12	28%	3%	48	-1.9	210/241/319	109	279	10	14	28%	3%	50	-1.8	254/306/422	168	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Adolfo Gonzalez 2008 · AA	23	48	41→40	45	39	233/271/333	100	311	8	7	27%	5%	66	-0.6	240/272/327	87	329	6	7	28%	4%	64	-0.8	251/276/326	76	342	5	5	27%	3%	62	-0.4
✕Jonathan Galvez 2015 · AAA	24	47→46	43→50	47→55	41	227/280/341	114	306	11	13	29%	6%	72	-0.2	221/271/325	104	307	8	10	29%	6%	64	-0.8	212/259/294	82	307	3	6	30%	5%	47	-1.0
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2014 · AAA	23	46	42→45	49→50	42	222/273/329	107	300	10	9	28%	6%	66	-0.6	231/282/329	98	295	8	8	23%	6%	69	-0.4	237/296/326	89	318	10	5	27%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	39→46	44→45	48→45	45	198/261/314	116	258	13	6	28%	8%	57	-1.2	214/281/337	123	274	14	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Ryan Khoury 2007 · AAA	23	46→49	41→45	52→45	41	224/272/322	98	299	9	13	27%	6%	63	-0.8	232/302/346	114	304	10	5	25%	8%	83	+0.6	222/300/324	103	298	8	3	26%	9%	74	-0.0
✕John Murrian 2011 · AA	23	43	45	46→45	40	211/267/332	121	302	12	7	33%	7%	65	-0.7	196/241/298	102	275	9	5	31%	5%	44	-2.1	162/206/257	94	225	9	0	31%	4%	16	-1.3
✕Alex De Goti 2019 · AAA	24	44→47	43→45	43→50	42	217/271/328	111	278	11	8	26%	6%	65	-0.7	223/279/344	121	286	12	7	25%	6%	72	-0.2	215/285/328	114	279	10	6	25%	8%	69	-0.4
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA	24	41	41→45	48→40	40	201/257/296	95	274	9	7	29%	6%	51	-1.7	214/263/302	88	270	7	5	23%	5%	55	-1.4	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0