Payton Green — OGILVIE

Payton GreenSS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 205 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION284 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP272

ISO108

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	49	9	2	0	0	13	14	1	4	1	184	365	224	590	41	250	22	20	288	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	107	93	22	4	0	2	11	24	2	3	1	237	327	344	671	108	299	22	10	308	94	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	275	241	67	14	2	6	24	63	4	6	6	278	353	427	781	149	343	23	9	342	118	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	52	8	2	0	0	10	19	1	4	1	154	302	192	494	38	220	29	15	235	45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	107	98	19	4	0	1	7	29	2	3	1	194	262	265	527	71	264	27	7	243	51	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	275	248	52	11	1	5	17	87	4	6	6	210	271	323	594	113	284	32	6	262	63	-12	-1	—	—	+6	-0.7
2024	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	52	8	2	0	0	10	19	1	4	1	154	302	192	494	38	235	29	15	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	49	9	2	0	0	13	14	1	4	1	184	365	224	590	41	250	22	20	288	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	382	345	71	14	1	6	25	117	6	9	7	206	271	304	576	99	285	31	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	382	334	89	18	2	8	35	87	6	9	7	266	346	404	750	138	331	23	9	333	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	54	8	2	0	0	10	19	1	4	1	148	302	185	487	37	220	29	15	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	382	348	71	14	1	6	25	117	6	9	7	204	271	302	573	98	278	31	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	65	54	8	2	0	0	10	19	1	4	1	148	302	185	487	37	220	29	15	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	382	348	71	14	1	6	25	117	6	9	7	204	271	302	573	98	278	31	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	MIA	—	284	256	44	9	1	7	21	113	6	21	4	172	251	297	548	125	272	40	7	248	54	-15	+3	+0	+3	+6	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	MIA	—	254	222	52	12	1	10	26	85	5	21	3	234	328	432	760	198	331	33	10	338	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA RAW	MIA	—	30	23	3	0	0	0	6	8	1	0	1	130	333	130	464		200	27	20	255	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	MIA	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		280	33	11	255	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	MIA	—	293	264	45	9	1	7	22	116	6	21	4	170	250	292	542	121	270	40	8	249	54	-16	+3	+0	+3	+6	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	31%	434	392	78	16	2	10	32	150	7	16	4	199	271	327	598	128	285	35	7	267	67	-17	+2	+0	+5	+9	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	45%	464	419	84	17	2	11	35	155	7	17	5	200	273	329	603	129	286	33	8	274	71	-16	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	51%	481	434	89	18	2	12	37	158	7	18	5	205	278	339	617	134	286	33	8	278	74	-15	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	486	438	89	18	2	12	38	159	7	18	5	203	277	336	613	132	286	33	8	279	75	-15	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	484	436	89	18	2	12	38	159	7	17	5	204	279	337	616	133	286	33	8	278	74	-15	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	476	428	87	17	2	12	38	157	7	16	4	203	279	336	616	133	285	33	8	276	73	-15	+2	-1	+5	+10	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	467	420	84	17	2	11	37	155	7	14	4	200	276	329	604	129	284	33	8	274	71	-16	+1	-2	+5	+10	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	31%	135	122	23	5	0	3	10	47	2	5	1	189	261	303	564	115	276	35	7	249	67	-5	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	45%	207	186	37	7	1	5	16	69	3	8	2	199	273	328	601	129	277	33	8	255	71	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	51%	245	220	43	8	1	6	19	80	4	9	3	195	272	323	594	127	277	33	8	259	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	255	229	46	9	1	6	20	83	4	10	3	201	277	328	604	127	278	33	8	260	75	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	258	232	46	9	1	6	20	85	4	9	3	198	273	323	597	125	277	33	8	260	74	-8	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	250	224	44	8	1	6	20	83	4	8	2	196	274	321	596	125	276	33	8	258	73	-8	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	243	218	43	8	1	6	19	81	4	7	2	197	274	326	600	128	275	33	8	256	71	-8	+1	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1593	1431	282	54	6	38	124	528	25	56	16	197	273	323	596	126	280	33	8	257	71	-52	+5	-2	+17	+35	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	115	22	2	16	51	215	10	23	7	197	273	324	596	127	278	33	8	257	71	-21	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3748	3372	680	137	15	86	291	1232	56	129	40	202	276	328	604	126	286	33	8	273	71	-109	+10	-4	+35	+72	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	119	24	3	15	50	214	10	22	7	203	278	332	609	128	289	33	8	273	71	-21	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.4	1,600	40	56	203	275	335	+17	+9	1.4	1.4
/162	664	16	23	+7.1	+3.7	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Payton Green (OGILVIE)	23	45	40	45	35	185/257/299	113	280	7	14	36%	7%	58	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	41→45	45→50	39	209/255/305	96	283	9	11	29%	5%	57	-1.8	226/286/347	121	297	13	9	27%	6%	79	-0.2	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jake Rucker 2023 · AAA	23	42→43	42→45	48→45	44	204/281/312	109	285	8	12	30%	8%	70	-0.9	208/266/309	101	272	9	9	25%	6%	63	-1.4	210/274/329	118	244	13	9	20%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	41→48	41→45	47→50	42	198/274/300	102	281	8	11	31%	7%	65	-1.2	216/287/309	93	288	7	13	26%	7%	71	-0.8	203/287/297	95	268	8	17	26%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Orlando Calixte 2015 · AA	23	44→49	42→45	45→55	38	218/257/325	107	294	10	10	29%	5%	62	-1.4	214/250/318	104	280	10	19	27%	5%	58	-1.7	224/266/309	86	296	9	20	27%	5%	60	-0.7
✕Juan Zabala 2022 · AA	23	40	43→40	45→50	38	198/254/308	109	297	11	7	36%	6%	58	-1.7	216/278/308	92	297	9	16	28%	7%	68	-1.0	206/268/289	83	286	8	16	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Adan Velazquez 2013 · AAA	23	46→52	40→45	48→50	40	223/268/315	92	296	8	12	27%	5%	64	-1.3	240/281/339	99	293	8	7	20%	5%	74	-0.5	243/281/336	93	295	8	4	20%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Yu Chang 2019 · AAA	23	40→44	47→50	47→45	39	203/263/339	136	284	14	7	33%	6%	69	-0.9	216/272/354	138	293	14	7	30%	6%	76	-0.4	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	41→51	40	48→60	43	198/267/286	88	277	7	15	30%	7%	59	-1.7	226/290/318	92	312	8	23	28%	7%	74	-0.6	236/299/323	88	323	7	32	27%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Jacob Nottingham 2018 · AA	23	41→51	42→45	47→50	37	201/260/303	102	282	9	8	31%	5%	59	-1.6	191/258/305	114	290	11	8	36%	6%	60	-1.6	180/253/297	117	271	13	11	37%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	41	193/269/299	106	293	11	13	36%	8%	63	-1.4	203/273/300	97	309	8	12	34%	8%	64	-1.3	170/256/241	71	275	3	11	36%	10%	43	-0.6
✕Bubba Starling 2016 · AA	23	42→47	44→45	49→50	38	206/259/327	120	297	12	10	34%	6%	64	-1.3	192/237/302	110	277	11	10	34%	5%	50	-2.3	217/256/332	115	281	13	10	27%	5%	61	-0.7
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	37→47	41→40	51→50	42	182/253/277	95	271	8	13	34%	8%	51	-2.2	200/272/288	88	292	6	12	31%	8%	61	-1.5	197/274/280	84	283	6	13	30%	8%	57	-1.1
✕Tyler Henson 2011 · AA	23	47→51	42→45	47→55	35	223/261/333	110	332	9	10	35%	4%	66	-1.1	210/261/306	96	309	7	9	32%	6%	60	-1.6	215/270/330	115	325	9	15	35%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Jose Castaneda 2007 · AAA	22	43→48	42→45	47→40	37	211/253/311	100	295	9	10	31%	5%	58	-1.7	234/293/314	80	292	6	8	21%	6%	74	-0.6	246/293/338	92	324	8	2	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Joe Perez 2023 · AAA	23	48→46	44→45	45	40	233/281/351	118	324	12	5	31%	6%	78	-0.3	213/269/329	116	314	13	6	34%	7%	69	-0.9	198/258/310	112	291	14	4	35%	7%	58	-1.1
✕Tony Thomas 2010 · AA	24	44→46	42→50	45→55	41	217/271/326	109	293	9	13	29%	6%	68	-1.0	209/258/333	124	284	11	16	29%	5%	65	-1.2	198/245/328	130	268	11	19	30%	5%	58	-1.0
✕Anthony Jimenez 2019 · A	23	47→44	41→45	49→55	34	221/261/324	103	331	9	16	35%	4%	64	-1.3	206/260/304	98	308	8	14	34%	5%	59	-1.6	166/231/258	92	252	6	18	34%	5%	35	-1.2
✕Charlie Culberson 2012 · AA	23	44→52	41→45	50	36	219/250/318	99	284	9	12	26%	3%	58	-1.7	221/251/336	115	286	11	14	26%	3%	63	-1.4	254/306/422	167	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.5
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	201/259/308	107	270	11	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	217/276/340	123	279	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	208/269/326	118	262	13	7	25%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Alex De Goti 2018 · A	23	41→48	41→45	44→50	44	200/273/294	94	289	9	7	32%	8%	63	-1.4	223/276/339	116	281	11	7	24%	6%	74	-0.6	217/272/330	114	276	10	6	24%	6%	68	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps