Chad Stevens
SS Albuquerque Isotopes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+/ROKLAA | 453 | .271/.331/.436 | 10 | 8 | 57 | — | .204/.253/.322 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAALAA | 528 | .290/.379/.480 | 18 | 20 | 90 | — | .238/.310/.378 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAACOL | 423 | .316/.410/.464 | 7 | 17 | 104 | — | .274/.346/.389 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBCOL | 34 | .036/.182/.036 | 0 | 0 | -25 | 0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 28 | MLBCOL | 46 | .243/.316/.377 | 1 | 1 | 85 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ44% MLB | 29 | MLBCOL | 121 | .241/.313/.372 | 2 | 3 | 83 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ53% MLB | 30 | MLBCOL | 143 | .237/.309/.366 | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 130 | 116 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 147 | 238 | 224 | 463 | 78 | 258 | 41 | 9 | 220 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 359 | 322 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 101 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 248 | 320 | 416 | 736 | 168 | 321 | 28 | 8 | 326 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 495 | 418 | 92 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 176 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 220 | 336 | 397 | 733 | 177 | 333 | 36 | 12 | 329 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 91 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 289 | 345 | 634 | 107 | 339 | 27 | 3 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 159 | 142 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 293 | 338 | 631 | 120 | 295 | 29 | 8 | 284 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 187 | 173 | 56 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 324 | 374 | 549 | 923 | 225 | 450 | 30 | 6 | 404 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 438 | 571 | 1.009 | 214 | 455 | 19 | 6 | 440 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 458 | 133 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 58 | 117 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 290 | 379 | 480 | 859 | 190 | 351 | 22 | 11 | 378 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 34 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 182 | 36 | 218 | 62 | 38 | 15 | 129 | -25 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 423 | 364 | 115 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 118 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 316 | 410 | 464 | 874 | 148 | 450 | 28 | 12 | 391 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 34 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 182 | 36 | 218 | 62 | 38 | 15 | 129 | -26 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +1 | 0.1 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 130 | 120 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 100 | 169 | 158 | 328 | 58 | 231 | 55 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 359 | 333 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 143 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 174 | 228 | 300 | 528 | 126 | 253 | 40 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 495 | 436 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 205 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 172 | 265 | 289 | 554 | 117 | 283 | 41 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 91 | 85 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 222 | 247 | 469 | 71 | 285 | 34 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 159 | 146 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 164 | 223 | 247 | 470 | 82 | 247 | 36 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 187 | 177 | 43 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 76 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 243 | 283 | 407 | 690 | 164 | 392 | 41 | 4 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 500 | 875 | 214 | 343 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 474 | 113 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 144 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 378 | 687 | 139 | 304 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 34 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 182 | 36 | 218 | 62 | 38 | 15 | 131 | -25 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 423 | 380 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 142 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 274 | 346 | 389 | 735 | 116 | 419 | 34 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 130 | 120 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 100 | 169 | 158 | 328 | 58 | 234 | 55 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 130 | 116 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 147 | 238 | 224 | 463 | 78 | 258 | 41 | 9 | 220 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 359 | 333 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 143 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 174 | 228 | 300 | 528 | 126 | 262 | 40 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 359 | 322 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 101 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 248 | 320 | 416 | 736 | 168 | 321 | 28 | 8 | 326 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 495 | 436 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 205 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 172 | 265 | 289 | 554 | 117 | 292 | 41 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 495 | 418 | 92 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 176 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 220 | 336 | 397 | 733 | 177 | 333 | 36 | 12 | 329 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 453 | 421 | 87 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 168 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 207 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 121 | 320 | 37 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 453 | 413 | 112 | 34 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 131 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 271 | 331 | 436 | 767 | 165 | 372 | 29 | 6 | 339 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 474 | 113 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 144 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 378 | 687 | 139 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 458 | 133 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 58 | 117 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 290 | 379 | 480 | 859 | 190 | 351 | 22 | 11 | 378 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 408 | 105 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 155 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 257 | 334 | 365 | 699 | 108 | 400 | 34 | 9 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 457 | 392 | 116 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 56 | 131 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 296 | 393 | 434 | 827 | 138 | 426 | 29 | 12 | 371 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 130 | 119 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 101 | 169 | 160 | 329 | 59 | 231 | 55 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 359 | 333 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 143 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 174 | 228 | 300 | 528 | 126 | 253 | 40 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 495 | 437 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 205 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 172 | 265 | 288 | 553 | 117 | 283 | 41 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 453 | 421 | 87 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 168 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 207 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 121 | 318 | 37 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 474 | 113 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 144 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 378 | 687 | 139 | 304 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 407 | 105 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 155 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 258 | 334 | 366 | 700 | 108 | 392 | 34 | 9 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 453 | 421 | 87 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 168 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 207 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 121 | 318 | 37 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 528 | 474 | 113 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 144 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 238 | 310 | 378 | 687 | 139 | 304 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 407 | 105 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 155 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 258 | 334 | 366 | 700 | 108 | 392 | 34 | 9 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 30% | 380 | 341 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 122 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 304 | 348 | 652 | 117 | 334 | 32 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 30% | 46 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 316 | 377 | 692 | 133 | 352 | 33 | 9 | 310 | 85 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 44% | 272 | 244 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 87 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 301 | 343 | 645 | 115 | 329 | 32 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 53% | 272 | 244 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 86 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 225 | 298 | 338 | 636 | 113 | 324 | 32 | 8 | 287 | 81 | -6 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 44% | 121 | 108 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 313 | 372 | 684 | 131 | 346 | 31 | 8 | 307 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 53% | 143 | 129 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 309 | 366 | 674 | 128 | 340 | 31 | 8 | 302 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 298 | 265 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 219 | 298 | 332 | 630 | 113 | 317 | 32 | 9 | 284 | 68 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +6 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 126 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 57 | 209 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 218 | 299 | 330 | 629 | 112 | 315 | 32 | 9 | 284 | 68 | -24 | +1 | -4 | +17 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3121 | 2820 | 592 | 117 | 21 | 58 | 228 | 1110 | 51 | 99 | 31 | 210 | 281 | 328 | 609 | 118 | 320 | 36 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -20 | +2 | -3 | +12 | +16 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 122 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 231 | 11 | 21 | 6 | 208 | 279 | 324 | 603 | 116 | 316 | 36 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -17 | +1 | -3 | +11 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 423 PAwOBA .382 → .322 (−60)K% 27.9% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 31.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 8.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 2.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .382 → .322; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .450 → .419. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 528 PAwOBA .371 → .301 (−70)K% 22.2% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.16% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.80% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.51% | ÷1.046 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.079 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.28% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .371 → .301; ISO .190 → .144; BABIP .351 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 187 PAwOBA .393 → .297 (−95)K% 30.5% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.48% | ÷1.018 | ×1.350 | — | — | 40.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.42% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷0.969 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 24.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 11.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 5.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .393 → .297; ISO .225 → .169; BABIP .450 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 159 PAwOBA .280 → .217 (−63)K% 28.9% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.93% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.072 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .280 → .217; ISO .120 → .092; BABIP .295 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 91 PAwOBA .276 → .217 (−59)K% 27.5% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.47% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.30% | ÷0.944 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.64% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.25% | ÷1.141 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 11.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .276 → .217; ISO .107 → .074; BABIP .339 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Angels · 16 PAwOBA .429 → .294 (−135)K% 18.8% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.004 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.026 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 3.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.958 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 22.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.053 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 5.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 111, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .429 → .294; ISO .214 → .135; BABIP .455 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 495 PAwOBA .324 → .248 (−76)K% 35.6% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.56% | ÷1.049 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 19.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.058 | ×0.940 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .324 → .248; ISO .177 → .122; BABIP .333 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 359 PAwOBA .320 → .226 (−95)K% 28.1% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.13% | ÷0.927 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.36% | ÷0.933 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.031 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 19.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.131 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.972 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.91% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 85, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .320 → .226; ISO .168 → .123; BABIP .321 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).