Chad Stevens — OGILVIE

Chad StevensSS Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 R/R 6'3" / 218 lbs AAA H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .273 / .326

PA250

HR5

SB8

K%35

BB%7

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

55→55

SPD

55→55

EYE

43↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$9M		$8M	-$0.7M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	130	120	12	2	1	1	8	72	2	3	2	.100	.169	.158	.328	.058	.234	55	6	.144	-32	-19	-0	+0	+1	+4	-1.5
2022	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	359	333	56	9	1	9	19	144	4	12	5	.168	.222	.282	.504	.114	.257	40	5	.225	30	-28	+0	+0	+4	+10	-1.4
2023	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	495	436	70	14	4	10	43	221	12	23	7	.161	.255	.280	.534	.119	.287	45	9	.241	43	-32	+2	+0	+5	+14	-1.1
2024	25	A+	4 teams	453	422	83	23	1	8	19	178	9	8	6	.197	.247	.313	.559	.116	.315	39	4	.241	43	-29	-1	+0	+5	+13	-1.3
2025	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	528	474	108	18	4	14	42	153	7	20	3	.228	.300	.371	.671	.143	.301	29	8	.290	80	-12	+3	-2	+2	+15	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	78	71	21	5	1	1	5	22	2	3	1	.296	.359	.437	.796	.141	.417	28	6	.333	113	+1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
ROS	27	MLB	COL	172	155	33	7	1	3	12	58	3	5	1	.213	.282	.329	.611	.116	.321	34	7	.285	76	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
TOT	27	MLB	COL	250	226	54	12	2	4	17	80	5	8	2	.239	.306	.363	.669	.124	.350	32	7	.300	88	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 20%	COL	333	298	68	14	2	7	26	96	6	9	2	.228	.303	.359	.662	.131	.310	29	8	.298	86	-5	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.8
2028	29	MLB 33%	COL	352	315	73	15	2	8	28	101	6	9	2	.232	.307	.368	.675	.137	.308	29	8	.298	86	-6	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.8
2029	30	MLB 43%	COL	363	325	74	15	2	8	29	104	6	9	2	.228	.303	.360	.663	.132	.306	29	8	.296	85	-6	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.7
2030	31	MLB 52%	COL	358	321	72	15	2	7	28	104	6	7	1	.224	.299	.349	.648	.125	.305	29	8	.293	83	-7	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.5
2031	32	MLB 64%	COL	345	310	69	14	2	7	27	102	5	5	1	.223	.295	.348	.644	.126	.304	30	8	.289	79	-8	+1	-4	+4	+10	0.2
2032	33	MLB 81%	COL	318	285	62	12	2	6	25	96	5	3	0	.218	.292	.337	.629	.119	.302	30	8	.283	75	-9	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.0
2033	34	MLB	COL	277	250	53	10	2	5	21	86	4	2	0	.212	.284	.328	.612	.116	.301	31	8	.277	70	-9	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4483	4044	833	168	26	93	327	1515	75	115	32	.206	.278	.329	.607	.123	.300	34	7	.271	65	-176	+10	-21	+44	+127	-1.6
/ 162G	—			650	586	120	24	4	13	47	220	11	17	5	.205	.276	.326	.602	.121	.300	34	7	.271	65	-26	+1	-3	+6	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	130	116	17	4	1	1	12	53	2	3	2	.147	.238	.224	.463	.078	.258	41	9	.220	27	-11	-0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2022	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	359	322	80	16	1	12	30	101	4	12	5	.248	.320	.416	.736	.168	.321	28	8	.326	108	+3	+0	—	—	+10	1.4
2023	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	495	418	92	19	5	15	61	176	12	23	7	.220	.336	.397	.733	.177	.333	36	12	.329	110	+6	+2	—	—	+14	2.2
2024	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	91	84	20	9	0	0	3	25	3	2	1	.238	.289	.345	.634	.107	.339	27	3	.284	75	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2024	25	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	159	142	31	8	0	3	12	46	3	4	2	.218	.293	.338	.631	.120	.295	29	8	.284	76	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.0
2024	25	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	187	173	56	16	1	7	12	57	2	2	3	.324	.374	.549	.923	.225	.450	30	6	.404	167	+14	-1	—	—	+5	1.9
2024	25	ROK	ACL Angels	16	14	5	1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	.357	.438	.571	1.009	.214	.455	19	6	.440	195	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	528	458	133	23	5	18	58	117	7	20	3	.290	.379	.480	.859	.190	.351	22	11	.378	147	+28	+3	—	—	+15	4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chad Stevens (OGILVIE)	27	55	55	55	50	.202/.273/.326	.124	.302	5	7	35%	7%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Derek Hill 2023 · MLB	27	47→53	44→50	55→60	39	.227/.275/.348	.121	.320	12	16	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.244/.292/.387	.143	.324	15	19	28%	6%	89	+1.0	.250/.300/.402	.152	.328	16	23	28%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Tyler Greene 2011 · MLB	27	46→51	46→50	56→55	41	.229/.287/.360	.130	.307	13	20	29%	6%	80	+0.4	.234/.299/.380	.146	.318	15	24	30%	7%	91	+1.1	.228/.291/.376	.147	.315	15	26	31%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	42→51	48→55	52→55	43	.214/.277/.362	.149	.292	15	13	31%	7%	77	+0.1	.202/.267/.327	.125	.300	13	21	35%	8%	63	-0.8	.201/.259/.337	.136	.285	17	26	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Ryan Boldt 2022 · AAA	27	47→51	48→50	55	39	.231/.285/.376	.145	.329	15	16	33%	6%	83	+0.6	.218/.268/.345	.127	.314	14	15	33%	5%	69	-0.4	.193/.242/.299	.106	.279	12	15	34%	4%	41	-1.1
✕Mikie Mahtook 2017 · MLB	27	48→55	45→55	52→50	38	.235/.282/.364	.130	.315	11	13	28%	5%	79	+0.3	.233/.289/.392	.159	.296	18	11	27%	6%	89	+1.0	.225/.289/.402	.177	.276	22	12	27%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Tyler Henson 2015 · AAA	27	47→51	44→45	51→55	38	.224/.276/.348	.123	.331	11	15	34%	6%	72	-0.2	.218/.259/.314	.096	.293	7	22	27%	5%	56	-1.3	.203/.239/.275	.072	.266	3	28	24%	3%	34	-2.2
✕James Shanks 2006 · AAA	27	51→53	44→45	50→55	40	.241/.291/.366	.125	.338	10	15	31%	6%	83	+0.6	.240/.287/.362	.122	.327	10	15	28%	5%	80	+0.4	.249/.288/.368	.118	.330	9	18	26%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Garrett Hampson 2022 · MLB	27	44→54	45	54→60	44	.221/.276/.343	.122	.283	13	21	26%	7%	71	-0.3	.230/.293/.334	.104	.305	8	20	25%	8%	76	+0.0	.236/.301/.316	.080	.322	3	22	25%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Lewis Brinson 2021 · MLB	27	39→49	46→55	52→50	38	.202/.257/.332	.130	.279	14	12	32%	5%	60	-1.0	.225/.271/.388	.163	.300	20	9	31%	5%	82	+0.5	.225/.267/.403	.178	.294	23	6	32%	5%	80	+0.2
✕JaCoby Jones 2019 · MLB	27	42→47	45→50	52→50	38	.210/.265/.341	.131	.299	12	16	33%	6%	66	-0.6	.220/.285/.376	.156	.307	16	12	32%	7%	84	+0.6	.213/.280/.361	.148	.311	16	7	35%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Franklin Barreto 2022 · MLB	26	42→47	49→55	55→50	38	.210/.268/.358	.148	.306	16	16	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.175/.242/.294	.119	.296	14	16	43%	7%	45	-2.1	.127/.201/.235	.108	.202	15	17	44%	8%	10	-1.4
✕Shawn McGill 2011 · AA	27	47	44→45	53→45	40	.227/.276/.344	.117	.308	10	14	29%	6%	71	-0.3	.232/.281/.338	.106	.285	9	9	21%	5%	71	-0.3	.234/.285/.334	.100	.283	7	6	19%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Kevin Smith 2023 · MLB	27	40→45	49→55	54→50	39	.206/.260/.354	.148	.283	17	14	33%	6%	68	-0.5	.211/.255/.351	.140	.304	18	16	35%	5%	65	-0.7	.205/.244/.339	.134	.297	19	19	37%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→50	47→55	57→60	40	.227/.284/.369	.142	.336	13	23	35%	7%	81	+0.4	.222/.294/.382	.160	.343	17	34	37%	9%	89	+1.0	.204/.284/.366	.161	.324	19	40	40%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	44→54	47→50	49→55	41	.222/.273/.358	.136	.291	15	16	29%	6%	74	-0.1	.216/.278/.360	.144	.298	16	14	31%	7%	77	+0.1	.185/.264/.309	.124	.264	15	11	34%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA	26	41→45	48→50	50	40	.208/.269/.350	.142	.293	15	10	33%	7%	70	-0.3	.222/.287/.357	.135	.316	14	10	32%	7%	79	+0.3	.221/.286/.344	.123	.313	13	9	32%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Andruw Monasterio 2023 · AAA	26	48→52	44→45	48→55	45	.231/.297/.353	.122	.316	11	12	29%	8%	82	+0.5	.237/.311/.344	.107	.309	10	19	25%	9%	86	+0.8	.238/.318/.339	.101	.307	9	23	23%	9%	85	+0.4
✕Nate Tenbrink 2014 · AAA	27	45→52	48→50	49→50	43	.219/.291/.368	.148	.315	16	13	34%	8%	85	+0.7	.222/.283/.354	.132	.336	14	11	36%	7%	77	+0.1	.198/.262/.300	.101	.360	8	0	44%	8%	50	-0.3
✕Jorge Mateo 2022 · MLB	27	45→46	45→50	54→65	36	.221/.262/.351	.129	.304	12	21	31%	4%	67	-0.5	.222/.269/.367	.145	.284	14	36	26%	5%	75	-0.0	.217/.264/.366	.149	.272	14	44	25%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Brandon Barnes 2013 · MLB	27	43→52	48→55	50	40	.219/.268/.366	.146	.287	15	14	29%	6%	74	-0.1	.234/.281/.355	.121	.317	11	14	29%	5%	76	+0.1	.214/.266/.361	.147	.296	17	15	33%	5%	69	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)