David Hensley — OGILVIE

David HensleyRF Jaguares de Nayarit

Age 30 R/R 6'6" / 219 lbs INTL HR -8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .278 / .299

PA17

HR0

K%32

BB%11

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT27

Whiff%

5810.1%

xAVG

100.182

POWER40

Barrel%

153.8

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE72

Chase%

9021.3%

SPEED56

Sprint

5227.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	234	49	11	2	4	31	79	0	2	6	209	302	325	627	115	294	29	12	285	79	-7	-2	—	—	+6	-0.3
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	111	98	32	11	0	0	11	23	0	0	2	327	394	439	833	112	416	21	10	368	135	+5	-1	—	—	+2	0.6
2019	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	318	290	69	11	3	6	25	72	0	11	4	238	298	359	657	121	293	23	8	293	85	-6	+1	—	—	+7	0.2
2021	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	445	396	116	25	3	9	46	104	2	11	3	293	369	439	809	146	377	23	10	361	131	+16	+1	—	—	+10	2.7
2021	25	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	65	58	20	2	0	0	6	15	1	1	0	345	415	379	795	34	465	23	9	366	134	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	34	29	10	2	1	1	5	6	0	0	0	345	441	586	1.027	241	409	18	15	447	188	+4	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.9
2022	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	464	379	113	30	4	10	80	103	2	20	7	298	423	478	901	179	383	22	17	400	157	+31	+1	—	—	+10	4.3
2023	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	94	84	10	1	0	1	10	35	0	1	0	119	213	167	379	48	188	37	11	187	13	-10	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.7
2023	27	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	236	52	10	2	6	54	82	1	9	3	220	368	356	724	136	307	28	18	334	112	+4	+1	—	—	+6	1.1
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	58	52	11	1	0	1	6	17	0	1	0	212	293	288	582	77	294	29	10	271	69	-2	+0	-2	-5	+1	-0.8
2024	28	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	358	303	71	20	1	7	54	89	1	17	2	234	352	376	728	142	309	25	15	333	111	+5	+3	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	28	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	76	59	17	5	0	0	16	22	0	3	1	288	440	373	813	85	447	29	21	374	139	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	58	47	4	1	0	1	9	26	1	0	0	85	246	170	416	85	150	45	16	210	28	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	29	INTL	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	89	77	19	4	2	0	10	24	0	1	2	247	333	351	684	104	345	27	11	305	92	-1	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	186	165	31	4	1	3	21	58	0	2	0	188	280	279	558	91	269	31	11	261	62	-8	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	243	42	8	2	3	22	110	0	2	6	173	242	259	501	86	288	41	8	223	37	-20	-2	—	—	+6	-1.7
2019	23	A+ MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	111	102	25	8	0	0	7	33	0	0	2	245	294	324	617	78	342	30	6	271	70	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2019	23	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	318	298	55	7	2	5	17	97	0	11	4	185	229	272	500	87	248	31	5	220	35	-25	+1	—	—	+7	-1.7
2021	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	445	411	105	22	2	6	31	132	2	11	3	255	311	363	673	107	361	30	7	299	88	-6	+1	—	—	+10	0.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	34	29	10	2	1	1	5	6	0	0	0	345	441	586	1.027	241	409	18	15	441	185	+3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.8
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	464	400	102	26	4	8	59	135	2	20	7	255	354	400	754	145	358	29	13	334	112	+7	+1	—	—	+10	1.8
2023	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	94	84	10	1	0	1	10	35	0	1	0	119	213	167	379	48	188	37	11	185	11	-10	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.7
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	253	48	9	2	5	37	106	1	9	3	190	296	300	596	111	292	36	13	270	69	-11	+1	—	—	+6	-0.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	58	52	11	1	0	1	6	17	0	1	0	212	293	288	582	77	294	29	10	273	71	-2	+0	-2	-5	+1	-0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	358	319	62	17	1	6	38	114	1	17	2	194	282	310	592	116	279	32	11	263	64	-15	+3	—	—	+8	-0.5
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	58	50	4	1	0	1	6	29	1	0	0	80	193	160	353	80	136	50	10	164	-3	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2018	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	243	42	8	2	3	22	110	0	2	6	173	242	259	501	86	295	41	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	234	49	11	2	4	31	79	0	2	6	209	302	325	627	115	294	29	12	285	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	429	401	80	15	2	5	23	130	0	11	6	200	243	284	527	85	277	30	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	429	388	101	22	3	6	36	95	0	11	6	260	323	379	702	119	325	22	8	312	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	510	471	121	25	3	7	35	151	3	12	3	257	312	367	680	110	363	30	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	510	454	136	27	3	9	52	119	3	12	3	300	375	432	807	132	388	23	10	362	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	498	429	112	28	5	9	64	141	2	20	7	261	360	413	772	152	365	28	13	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	498	408	123	32	5	11	85	109	2	20	7	301	424	485	910	184	385	22	17	403	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	337	58	10	2	6	47	141	1	10	3	172	275	267	542	95	271	36	12	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	387	320	62	11	2	7	64	117	1	10	3	194	330	306	636	113	278	30	17	298	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	492	438	86	22	1	8	52	155	1	21	3	196	283	306	589	110	283	32	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	492	414	99	26	1	8	76	128	1	21	3	239	358	365	723	126	326	26	15	332	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	147	127	9	2	0	2	16	74	1	1	2	71	181	134	314	63	132	50	11	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	147	124	23	5	2	1	19	50	1	1	2	185	299	282	581	97	293	34	13	267	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	244	42	8	2	3	22	110	0	2	6	172	242	258	500	86	288	41	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	429	403	80	15	2	5	23	130	0	11	6	199	243	283	526	84	272	30	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	510	467	121	25	3	7	35	151	3	12	3	259	312	370	683	111	361	30	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	498	429	112	28	5	9	64	141	2	20	7	261	360	413	772	152	361	28	13	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	336	58	10	2	6	47	141	1	10	3	173	275	268	543	95	267	36	12	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	492	436	86	22	1	8	52	155	1	21	3	197	283	307	590	110	281	32	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	147	129	9	2	0	2	16	74	1	1	2	70	181	132	312	62	136	50	11	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	336	58	10	2	6	47	141	1	10	3	173	275	268	543	95	267	36	12	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	492	436	86	22	1	8	52	155	1	21	3	197	283	307	590	110	281	32	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	147	129	9	2	0	2	16	74	1	1	2	70	181	132	312	62	136	50	11	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	30	MLB MLE	DET	0%	17	15	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	200	294	267	561	67	264	35	12	267	67	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	22%	185	162	31	6	1	4	20	59	1	4	1	191	284	315	599	123	265	32	11	269	68	-7	+0	-4	-2	+4	-0.8
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	34%	166	146	28	6	1	3	18	52	1	3	1	192	285	308	593	116	263	31	11	268	67	-6	+0	-4	-2	+4	-0.9
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	22%	40	36	6	1	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	167	250	278	528	111	260	32	10	261	68	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	34%	56	50	9	2	0	1	6	18	0	1	0	180	268	280	548	100	259	32	11	259	67	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	282	251	46	7	1	5	31	89	0	4	0	183	273	279	552	96	261	32	11	260	68	-12	+1	-6	+0	+6	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	106	16	2	12	71	205	0	9	0	183	272	280	552	97	260	32	11	260	68	-28	+2	-13	+1	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3099	2769	570	123	17	47	299	1019	10	84	32	206	286	313	599	108	304	33	10	268	68	-22	+1	-11	-2	+12	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	120	26	4	10	63	214	2	18	7	207	287	317	604	110	305	33	10	268	68	-26	+1	-13	-3	+14	-2.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.7	448	8	9	177	267	274	-4	-4	-1.5	-1.2
/162	664	12	14	-6.4	-6.3	-2.2	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Hensley (OGILVIE)	30	27	40	56	72	184/278/299	115	264	4	5	32%	11%	67	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	42→45	54→50	42	185/250/290	106	250	10	13	30%	7%	53	-2.1	190/262/302	112	274	11	13	33%	7%	61	-1.5	142/221/231	89	212	10	16	36%	6%	28	-1.5
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	45→55	47→50	44	212/276/337	125	273	13	11	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/271/326	122	279	14	10	30%	7%	70	-0.9	176/257/306	130	226	18	11	30%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→48	45	53→50	41	201/255/317	116	274	13	12	31%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/319	109	294	12	10	31%	8%	68	-1.0	194/260/282	88	272	11	8	31%	8%	51	-0.7
✕Jonathan Davis 2022 · MLB	30	40→50	43→45	52→55	48	196/301/308	112	267	11	19	28%	9%	78	-0.3	223/307/334	111	306	10	22	28%	9%	84	+0.2	221/304/328	106	311	9	22	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→40	46→50	46→50	41	187/263/312	125	288	14	5	38%	8%	63	-1.3	198/267/312	114	334	13	10	41%	8%	64	-1.3	168/238/260	91	301	11	12	45%	8%	39	-1.6
✕Jake Hager 2023 · MLB	30	41→51	44→50	50	46	207/273/323	117	270	12	11	27%	8%	69	-0.9	204/256/312	108	292	9	8	31%	6%	59	-1.6	180/221/279	99	268	6	2	34%	4%	36	-0.9
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	38	44→45	47→50	42	193/261/309	116	251	13	9	28%	6%	61	-1.5	213/285/338	125	283	14	11	28%	7%	78	-0.3	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Josh Prince 2018 · AA	30	44→48	43→40	50→60	44	218/277/329	111	286	10	15	27%	7%	72	-0.7	234/302/344	110	326	10	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	237/313/333	96	333	8	15	29%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	51→55	46	222/287/329	107	284	11	16	25%	8%	75	-0.5	220/290/381	161	284	20	14	29%	8%	89	+0.5	199/274/379	180	248	24	14	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕D.J. Peterson 2022 · AAA	30	43→44	47→50	50→40	41	215/274/348	133	292	15	11	31%	6%	75	-0.5	209/283/372	163	294	20	7	34%	8%	84	+0.2	174/256/339	165	233	22	1	35%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Jason Repko 2011 · MLB	30	46→48	45→50	53→55	45	229/291/353	124	286	13	20	24%	7%	82	+0.0	217/277/333	116	281	12	17	26%	7%	72	-0.7	196/254/299	103	257	11	18	27%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→43	48→50	50	38	210/254/349	140	285	16	11	32%	6%	68	-1.0	203/254/320	117	291	13	11	33%	6%	61	-1.5	191/243/296	105	275	11	8	34%	5%	49	-1.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	40	40	47→55	44	198/266/286	88	273	8	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/268/296	95	308	8	10	35%	7%	61	-1.5	157/228/221	64	263	4	5	39%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Cam Gallagher 2023 · MLB	30	45	43→45	47→30	46	219/276/332	113	277	10	4	24%	7%	72	-0.7	196/245/295	99	268	8	7	29%	6%	51	-2.2	125/154/166	42	183	0	0	31%	3%	-15	-1.8
✕Austin Hedges 2023 · MLB	30	33→40	46→60	48→45	45	180/244/293	113	213	16	5	25%	7%	52	-2.2	182/245/274	92	230	11	6	25%	7%	48	-2.5	190/263/292	101	234	13	4	24%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Kristopher Negrón 2016 · MLB	30	42→50	41→45	52→55	41	205/262/300	94	269	8	13	26%	6%	59	-1.6	220/275/340	120	295	12	17	28%	5%	73	-0.6	226/289/352	126	323	14	14	32%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Anthony Bemboom 2020 · MLB	30	40	42→40	44→45	44	199/258/302	103	260	10	4	27%	7%	58	-1.7	206/276/328	122	265	13	5	26%	8%	72	-0.7	201/272/306	105	260	10	2	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Brandon Macias 2019 · AAA	30	40→50	45→40	44→45	42	205/265/324	119	269	14	7	29%	6%	67	-1.1	218/276/318	100	293	11	8	28%	6%	69	-0.9	201/259/264	63	271	8	2	27%	5%	47	-1.0
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	46→45	49→45	41	202/251/325	124	250	14	9	26%	5%	61	-1.5	201/247/324	123	254	12	9	25%	5%	59	-1.7	178/216/303	125	218	11	6	24%	4%	38	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps