David Hensley — OGILVIE

David HensleyOF Jaguares de Nayarit

Age 30 R/R 6'6" / 219 lbs INTL HR -8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .282 / .313

PA200

HR4

SB5

K%32

BB%11

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT28

Whiff%

5810.1%

xwOBA

100.259

POWER40

Barrel%

153.8

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE72

Chase%

9021.3%

SPEED56

Sprint

5227.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	242	43	8	2	3	23	113	0	2	6	178	249	264	514	87	312	42	9	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	234	49	11	2	4	31	79	0	2	6	209	302	325	627	115	294	29	12	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A	2 teams	—	429	401	80	14	2	5	23	130	0	11	6	200	243	282	525	82	277	30	5	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A	2 teams	—	429	388	101	22	3	6	36	95	0	11	6	260	323	379	702	119	325	22	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	2 teams	—	510	470	116	25	2	8	36	168	3	12	3	247	305	360	664	113	366	33	7	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	2 teams	—	510	454	136	27	3	9	52	119	3	12	3	300	375	432	807	132	388	23	10	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	498	425	114	29	5	10	68	142	2	20	7	268	372	431	802	162	377	29	14	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	498	408	123	32	5	11	85	109	2	20	7	301	424	485	910	184	385	22	17	403	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	387	338	60	12	1	7	46	141	1	10	3	178	278	281	559	104	276	36	12	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	387	320	62	11	2	7	64	117	1	10	3	194	330	306	636	113	278	30	17	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	3 teams	—	492	439	87	23	1	9	51	154	1	21	3	198	283	317	600	118	282	31	10	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	3 teams	—	492	414	99	26	1	8	76	128	1	21	3	239	358	365	723	126	326	26	15	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	2 teams	—	147	127	11	3	0	3	16	69	1	1	2	87	194	181	376	94	140	47	11	185	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	2 teams	—	147	124	23	5	2	1	19	50	1	1	2	185	299	282	581	97	293	34	13	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	DET	—	200	175	33	7	1	4	22	64	1	5	1	189	283	309	591	120	268	32	11	274	68	-7	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	DET	22%	185	162	32	7	1	4	20	58	1	4	1	198	290	327	617	130	268	31	11	275	69	-7	+0	-4	-2	+5	-0.7
2027	31	MLB	DET	22%	40	36	6	1	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	167	250	278	528	111	263	32	10	266	62	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	226	201	37	5	1	4	25	71	0	3	0	184	274	279	553	95	262	31	11	262	58	-11	+1	-4	+1	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	107	14	3	12	72	204	0	9	0	185	275	282	557	97	262	31	11	262	58	-31	+2	-12	+3	+18	-2.0
Career	—			—	3116	2779	576	128	15	53	305	1039	10	86	32	207	288	321	609	114	307	33	10	272	66	-120	+4	-8	-17	+88	-5.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	120	27	3	11	64	217	2	18	7	207	288	321	609	114	306	33	10	272	66	-25	+1	-2	-4	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	268	234	49	11	2	4	31	79	0	2	6	209	302	325	627	115	294	29	12	285	76	-7	-2	—	—	+8	-0.2
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	111	98	32	11	0	0	11	23	0	0	2	327	394	439	833	112	416	21	10	368	139	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.7
2019	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	318	290	69	11	3	6	25	72	0	11	4	238	298	359	657	121	293	23	8	293	83	-6	+1	—	—	+9	0.3
2021	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	445	396	116	25	3	9	46	104	2	11	3	293	369	439	809	146	377	23	10	361	135	+17	+1	—	—	+13	3.2
2021	25	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	65	58	20	2	0	0	6	15	1	1	0	345	415	379	795	34	465	23	9	366	138	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	34	29	10	2	1	1	5	6	0	0	0	345	441	586	1.027	241	409	18	15	447	200	+4	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.9
2022	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	464	379	113	30	4	10	80	103	2	20	7	298	423	478	901	179	383	22	17	400	164	+34	+1	—	—	+13	4.9
2023	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	94	84	10	1	0	1	10	35	0	1	0	119	213	167	379	48	188	37	11	187	1	-10	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.7
2023	27	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	293	236	52	10	2	6	54	82	1	9	3	220	368	356	724	136	307	28	18	334	113	+4	+1	—	—	+8	1.4
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	58	52	11	1	0	1	6	17	0	1	0	212	293	288	582	77	294	29	10	271	65	-2	+0	-2	-5	+2	-0.8
2024	28	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	358	303	71	20	1	7	54	89	1	17	2	234	352	376	728	142	309	25	15	333	113	+5	+3	—	—	+10	1.8
2024	28	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	76	59	17	5	0	0	16	22	0	3	1	288	440	373	813	85	447	29	21	374	145	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	58	47	4	1	0	1	9	26	1	0	0	85	246	170	416	85	150	45	16	210	19	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	29	INTL	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	89	77	19	4	2	0	10	24	0	1	2	247	333	351	684	104	345	27	11	305	91	-1	-1	—	—	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	186	165	31	4	1	3	21	58	0	2	0	188	280	279	558	91	269	31	11	261	58	-9	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	392	7	8	178	267	278	-4	-3	-1.3	-1.1
	/162	664	12	14	178	267	278	-6.8	-5.4	-2.2	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Hensley (OGILVIE)	30	28	40	56	72	189/282/313	124	268	4	5	32%	11%	68	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	48→55	47→50	43	215/278/354	140	275	15	11	28%	7%	76	+0.0	206/271/344	138	287	17	10	33%	7%	70	-0.3	181/260/337	157	237	23	11	34%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	41	184/246/294	109	250	11	13	30%	6%	46	-2.0	193/261/313	120	273	13	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	153/230/258	105	221	12	16	35%	6%	28	-1.2
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Jonathan Davis 2022 · MLB	30	40→50	44→45	52→55	48	198/302/313	116	269	11	19	29%	9%	77	+0.1	225/308/344	119	307	11	22	28%	9%	85	+0.7	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	50→55	46	220/285/327	107	284	11	16	26%	8%	71	-0.3	219/288/382	163	284	20	14	29%	8%	87	+0.8	199/271/381	183	248	24	14	30%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→41	46→50	46→50	41	185/262/309	123	286	14	5	38%	8%	57	-1.2	196/262/312	116	334	13	10	42%	7%	57	-1.2	165/231/258	94	300	12	12	46%	7%	28	-1.7
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→48	44→45	53→50	39	199/249/310	111	279	12	12	32%	6%	50	-1.7	215/274/333	118	302	14	10	32%	7%	68	-0.5	204/269/307	103	286	13	8	32%	8%	55	-0.4
✕Jason Repko 2011 · MLB	30	46→48	46→50	53→55	44	230/291/359	129	285	14	20	24%	6%	82	+0.5	218/276/336	118	282	13	17	26%	6%	69	-0.4	197/255/299	102	260	11	18	28%	6%	49	-0.6
✕Jake Hager 2023 · MLB	30	41→51	45→50	50	45	206/271/330	125	266	13	11	27%	8%	66	-0.6	201/251/309	108	289	9	8	32%	6%	51	-1.7	174/214/270	96	263	6	2	35%	4%	22	-1.0
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	34→44	52→55	54→55	46	190/270/352	162	253	20	14	33%	9%	72	-0.2	207/279/371	164	297	19	17	35%	9%	80	+0.4	194/264/366	172	280	19	20	36%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Josh Prince 2018 · AA	30	44→49	43→40	50→60	43	217/274/327	110	290	11	15	28%	7%	66	-0.6	231/299/344	113	331	11	14	31%	8%	81	+0.4	233/308/333	101	337	10	15	31%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Webster Rivas 2021 · AAA	30	44	44→45	48→40	43	222/274/335	113	279	12	6	25%	6%	68	-0.5	220/294/317	97	294	9	4	26%	9%	72	-0.2	212/297/295	82	286	7	1	26%	10%	65	-0.3
✕Austin Hedges 2023 · MLB	30	33→40	46→60	48→45	45	180/244/293	113	213	16	5	25%	7%	45	-2.1	182/245/274	92	230	11	6	25%	7%	41	-2.3	190/259/290	100	237	13	5	25%	7%	49	-0.5
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	42→41	49→50	53→55	49	213/292/360	147	273	17	15	28%	9%	82	+0.5	196/273/336	140	263	16	15	30%	9%	69	-0.4	169/251/300	130	226	15	14	31%	10%	50	-1.0
✕Kristopher Negrón 2016 · MLB	30	41→51	41→45	52→55	40	204/259/301	97	269	9	13	27%	5%	53	-1.5	218/271/338	120	294	12	17	29%	5%	68	-0.5	219/281/336	117	319	13	14	33%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB	29	37→45	45→55	54→50	37	189/247/308	120	279	13	12	36%	6%	50	-1.7	183/237/315	132	337	16	9	48%	5%	49	-1.8	148/201/281	132	295	18	5	54%	4%	21	-2.8
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕D.J. Peterson 2022 · AAA	30	42→46	47→55	50→40	38	212/264/344	132	290	15	11	32%	5%	67	-0.5	203/278/360	157	286	19	7	34%	8%	77	+0.1	165/252/321	156	223	21	1	35%	8%	54	-0.9
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	184/255/323	140	226	18	4	28%	8%	58	-1.2	193/267/322	129	258	16	4	30%	8%	63	-0.8	168/248/282	114	227	14	0	32%	8%	43	-0.9